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December 05, 2020, 07:44:31 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  VA - Data for Progress: Biden +11%
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Author Topic: VA - Data for Progress: Biden +11%  (Read 638 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: November 01, 2020, 10:15:14 PM »

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/11/2020-election-polls/toplines/dfp_va_11.1.20.pdf

Oct 27 - Nov 1
690 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%

Biden 54%
Trump 43%
Jorgensen 1%
Other candidate or write-in 1%
Hawkins 0%
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Rafe
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2020, 10:19:31 PM »

”Virginia is for lovers. Lovers of Joe Biden.”
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2020, 10:21:53 PM »

”Virginia is for lovers. Lovers of Joe Biden.”

You have provided countless witty quotes. Congrats. I had to say it.
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gracile
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2020, 10:34:15 PM »

I'm old enough to remember when it was impossible for Democrats to win VA by double digits at the presidential level because of muh high Republican floor/inelasticity/overwhelmingly R rurals somehow overpowering NoVA.
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philly09
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2020, 10:37:39 PM »

Northam won by 9, so this would be an improvement.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2020, 10:38:09 PM »

Looks about right.
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charcuterie
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2020, 10:50:33 PM »

Rapidly moving out of the "swing state" category (if it isn't already gone). But in an R+5 or more environment it may be flippable for the GOP.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2020, 10:57:20 PM »

Commonwealth JOE
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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2020, 11:01:34 PM »

I'm old enough to remember when it was impossible for Democrats to win VA by double digits at the presidential level because of muh high Republican floor/inelasticity/overwhelmingly R rurals somehow overpowering NoVA.
It was clearly true at the time. But, Virginia changed. Virginia is very, very likely to go for Biden by double digits. 2020 Virginia.
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gracile
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2020, 11:03:04 PM »

I'm old enough to remember when it was impossible for Democrats to win VA by double digits at the presidential level because of muh high Republican floor/inelasticity/overwhelmingly R rurals somehow overpowering NoVA.
It was clearly true at the time. But, Virginia changed. Virginia is very, very likely to go for Biden by double digits. 2020 Virginia.

A certain hackish Atlas user made those exact same arguments to me in 2019...
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2020, 11:03:08 PM »

New Poll: Virginia President by Data 4 Progress on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 54%, R: 43%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2020, 11:06:04 PM »

I'm old enough to remember when it was impossible for Democrats to win VA by double digits at the presidential level because of muh high Republican floor/inelasticity/overwhelmingly R rurals somehow overpowering NoVA.
It was clearly true at the time. But, Virginia changed. Virginia is very, very likely to go for Biden by double digits. 2020 Virginia.

A certain hackish Atlas user made those exact same arguments to me in 2019...
Well, post-2017 I can't see any validity in those arguments... at all.
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philly09
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2020, 11:07:36 PM »

I'm old enough to remember when it was impossible for Democrats to win VA by double digits at the presidential level because of muh high Republican floor/inelasticity/overwhelmingly R rurals somehow overpowering NoVA.
It was clearly true at the time. But, Virginia changed. Virginia is very, very likely to go for Biden by double digits. 2020 Virginia.

John Kerry could have won Virginia if he had invested the resources. It was there in 2004.
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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2020, 11:08:43 PM »

I'm old enough to remember when it was impossible for Democrats to win VA by double digits at the presidential level because of muh high Republican floor/inelasticity/overwhelmingly R rurals somehow overpowering NoVA.
It was clearly true at the time. But, Virginia changed. Virginia is very, very likely to go for Biden by double digits. 2020 Virginia.

John Kerry could have won Virginia if he had invested the resources. It was there in 2004.
I don't think so. Bush was too strong in the South and the Obama coalition types were yet to be viable voters.
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philly09
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2020, 11:10:16 PM »

I'm old enough to remember when it was impossible for Democrats to win VA by double digits at the presidential level because of muh high Republican floor/inelasticity/overwhelmingly R rurals somehow overpowering NoVA.
It was clearly true at the time. But, Virginia changed. Virginia is very, very likely to go for Biden by double digits. 2020 Virginia.

John Kerry could have won Virginia if he had invested the resources. It was there in 2004.
I don't think so. Bush was too strong in the South and the Obama coalition types were yet to be viable voters.

I always figured that Kerry would flip VA the way Bush flipped WV. Bill Clinton didn't lose VA by that much in 1996.
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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2020, 11:13:40 PM »

I'm old enough to remember when it was impossible for Democrats to win VA by double digits at the presidential level because of muh high Republican floor/inelasticity/overwhelmingly R rurals somehow overpowering NoVA.
It was clearly true at the time. But, Virginia changed. Virginia is very, very likely to go for Biden by double digits. 2020 Virginia.

John Kerry could have won Virginia if he had invested the resources. It was there in 2004.
I don't think so. Bush was too strong in the South and the Obama coalition types were yet to be viable voters.

I always figured that Kerry would flip VA the way Bush flipped WV. Bill Clinton didn't lose VA by that much in 1996.
It's not a straightforward parallel. Probably, Dems were still losing more voters than Rs did in VA till the 2000s, if we are looking at generational trends driven by elderly voters. And generational trends of that kind were the biggest reason WV flipped.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2020, 11:20:04 PM »

VA looking once again as a DAFE DEM State, where DEMs will win the Pop Vote by +10%, likely rolling with the same Ntl margins like MI and WI in 2020...

Nothing to see here folks.... except another SAFE DEM State being yet another SAFE DEM State....
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Kansas City Suburbanite for Orman-Clinton-Kelly For Marshall
Zyzz
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2020, 06:00:43 AM »


Jamestown Joe.
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jimmie
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2020, 06:02:24 AM »

Man, Virginia is going to be very close without Tim Kaine on the ticket.

Exactly what I expected. A little to the left of the country. Unlikely to shift much back towards to the GOP in 2021 elections because the Democratic base is now the majority and ironclad. Not a landslide obviously.
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#SaveTheSenate
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2020, 06:17:56 AM »

There’s no way Biden wins VA by less than 13%. I think the polls are underestimating Democratic strength here.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2020, 06:25:21 AM »

There’s no way Biden wins VA by less than 13%. I think the polls are underestimating Democratic strength here.

Yep. Just like people also underestimated Biden's strength in VA in the primary, when turnout was sky high and he blew it out of the water.
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2020, 06:37:37 AM »

There’s no way Biden wins VA by less than 13%. I think the polls are underestimating Democratic strength here.

Remember this site has people who believe that Sanders would have lost Loudoun, Prince William, Fairfax Counties against Trump if he were the nominee. When the truth is that those counties would have been the areas that pushed Sanders over the top in VA over Trump.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2020, 07:15:19 AM »

VA will definitely vote several percentage points to the left of WI/MI, lol.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2020, 07:32:02 AM »

Monticell-JOE
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2020, 08:07:33 AM »

VA will definitely vote several percentage points to the left of WI/MI, lol.

Oh absolutely. Maybe not dramatically to the left of the country but in this electoral alignment it is relative rare to vote to left of country.

Still expecting a tiny R trend relative to 2016 though in VA. Meaningless though.
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