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November 27, 2020, 03:30:47 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
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  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virgini)
  NC-Data For Progress: Cunningham +5
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Author Topic: NC-Data For Progress: Cunningham +5  (Read 261 times)
AOC Stan
dfwlibertylover
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« on: November 01, 2020, 08:44:40 PM »

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jk2020
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2020, 08:45:22 PM »

HISTORICALLY
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2020, 08:45:44 PM »

I'll take it. Nice to see Cunningham not only running ahead in margin but also in vote %. This is definately back to lean D.
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We Made PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2020, 08:46:36 PM »

I'm getting a bit more confident with this race.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2020, 08:49:43 PM »

It's clear at this point that Cunningham's sexting scandal did little to change the trajectory of this race, although the margin has tightened compared to where it was a few months ago (and that was inevitable, and would have occurred even without the scandal). It's not a stretch to say that Tillis might be in a worse position than Susan Collins at this point, given the uncertainties that RCV introduces to the voting in Maine and the fact that Gideon has been running much further behind Biden than Cunningham, who is running slightly ahead of him.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2020, 08:50:45 PM »

Sounds wonderful! I want that too - very badly
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2020, 08:54:42 PM »

Oct 27-Nov 1
908 likely voters
MoE: 3.3%
Changes with Oct 15-18

Cunningham 51% (+5)
Tillis 46% (+4)
Bray (L) 2% (+1)
Hayes (C) 1% (n/c)
Other candidate or write-in 0%

Not sure previously at 10%
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2020, 09:05:01 PM »

If this is the final margin, holding the other seat will be an uphill battle for Republicans in 2022 even in a Republican-leaning year. Unless polling is off substantially (possible), this state appears to have zoomed leftward way more than I would have expected.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2020, 09:12:41 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2020, 09:19:28 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

If this is the final margin, holding the other seat will be an uphill battle for Republicans in 2022 even in a Republican-leaning year. Unless polling is off substantially (possible), this state appears to have zoomed leftward way more than I would have expected.

This does not necessarily mean the state has zoomed leftward considering it comes with a presidential race currently sitting (according to this pollster) at 50-48 in a wave environment. Maybe Democrats are just going to be afforded more downballot support in the longterm because of ancestral Trump Democrats (although we've seen how that story tends to go in other states), but the most probable explanation is just that Tillis is a bad candidate and shouldn't run in 2022.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2020, 09:30:37 PM »

Recent polling has been pretty consistent for this race. While I could certainly see polling underestimate Tillis a bit, he needs a decent 3-4% polling error to pull this off. Its possible, but Id definitely rather be Cunningham.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2020, 09:31:12 PM »

If this is the final margin, holding the other seat will be an uphill battle for Republicans in 2022 even in a Republican-leaning year. Unless polling is off substantially (possible), this state appears to have zoomed leftward way more than I would have expected.

This does not necessarily mean the state has zoomed leftward considering it comes with a presidential race currently sitting (according to this pollster) at 50-48 in a wave environment. Maybe Democrats are just going to be afforded more downballot support in the longterm because of ancestral Trump Democrats (although we've seen how that story tends to go in other states), but the most probable explanation is just that Tillis is a bad candidate and shouldn't run in 2022.

I agree with this. Tillis won by slightly less than 1.6 percentage points in 2014, which was a Republican wave year, and North Carolina has been a closely divided swing state for years. It's not surprising that in this kind of national environment, it would lean towards the Democrats.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2020, 09:32:34 PM »

so hot and so fun!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2020, 09:37:04 PM »

I agree with this. Tillis won by slightly less than 1.6 percentage points in 2014, which was a Republican wave year, and North Carolina has been a closely divided swing state for years. It's not surprising that in this kind of national environment, it would lean towards the Democrats.

Or -- alternative take: Tillis won by slightly less than 1.6 percentage points in 2014 because the state has zoomed leftward. Tongue

This does make Deborah Ross' showing look really pathetic, though.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2020, 09:38:14 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 51%, R: 46%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2020, 09:47:39 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2020, 10:08:08 PM by Calthrina950 »

I agree with this. Tillis won by slightly less than 1.6 percentage points in 2014, which was a Republican wave year, and North Carolina has been a closely divided swing state for years. It's not surprising that in this kind of national environment, it would lean towards the Democrats.

Or -- alternative take: Tillis won by slightly less than 1.6 percentage points in 2014 because the state has zoomed leftward. Tongue

This does make Deborah Ross' showing look really pathetic, though.

You could be right. But I still think that the national environment, more than anything else, is influencing the trajectory and the eventual outcome of this race. Cunningham isn't the strongest candidate Democrats could have run here, and is benefitting from the same external factors that are driving the Biden lead here. To say nothing of the fact that Tillis has never been popular and has always had weaknesses with the Republican base.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2020, 09:59:08 PM »

I agree with this. Tillis won by slightly less than 1.6 percentage points in 2014, which was a Republican wave year, and North Carolina has been a closely divided swing state for years. It's not surprising that in this kind of national environment, it would lean towards the Democrats.

Or -- alternative take: Tillis won by slightly less than 1.6 percentage points in 2014 because the state has zoomed leftward. Tongue

This does make Deborah Ross' showing look really pathetic, though.

You could be right. But I still think that the national environment, more than anything else, is influencing the trajectory and the eventual outcome of this race. Cunningham isn't the strongest candidate Democrats could have won here, and is benefitting from the same external factors that are driving the Biden lead here. To say nothing of the fact that Tillis has never been popular and has always had weaknesses with the Republican base.

Oh sure, I agree with this. Cunningham probably would have lost in 2016.
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