If these #s are correct, Selzer is going to lose that gold standard title hard. And it's even weirder b/c these are the types of margins they were showing for their other polls before this ridiculous new one.
No, they're not.
Even a hypothetically
perfect pollster would have an outlier occasionally. This is inherent in the nature of sampling, and it is inescapable. Some pollsters will hold back their outliers because they don't want to look like they don't know what they're doing. A good pollster will go ahead and release it, because their reputation is strong enough that they don't need to play those games. The Selzer poll and the ABC/WaPo poll with Biden+17 in Wisconsin are both in that situation. Both pollsters are very good, and neither pollster's reputation will (or at least should) suffer if those polls turn out to be the outliers they look like now.
