Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)

[Lief 🐋]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/1/1991643/-Final-Iowa-Ohio-and-Wisconsin-Civiqs-poll-confirm-that-Trump-is-in-trouble-in-these-three-red-stat

Iowa

Biden 49
Trump 48

Greenfield 50
Ernst 47

Wisconsin

Biden 51
Trump 47

Ohio

Biden 48
Trump 49

[libertpaulian]

Ohio is going to be a coin-flip down to the end.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... I think the biggest risk to Biden isn't PA but the possibility that his Upper Midwest polling leads are "fake" like they were in 2016.

[CellarDoor]

Ohio is going to be a coin-flip down to the end.

I'm really interested/excited to see how Ohio plays out, especially considering that Biden updated his plans to make a stop at Cleveland. Sometimes voters reward the campaign that shows up.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is at 51% in Wisconsin. It'll be fine. He is actually contesting the state this year and any Democrats who didn't vote in 2016 now have the benefit of hindsight.

I still have absolutely no idea what to make of Iowa or Ohio in this election.

[ExSky]

I’ve got a feeling that Selzer poll is gonna be the most memorable outlier of the cycle

[DrScholl]

Over 50% in Wisconsin is quite good for Biden. It's not as big of a margin as other polls, but it definitely is still a good number.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

and now in the final stretch we have abandoned the PA Panic! for the WI Worry!

[SlamDunk]

I'm gonna go crazy and say Biden takes both Ohio and Iowa. Trump needs much stronger polls coming out of these states.

[We Made PA Blue Again!]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/1/1991643/-Final-Iowa-Ohio-and-Wisconsin-Civiqs-poll-confirm-that-Trump-is-in-trouble-in-these-three-red-stat

Wisconsin starting to look really ugly...

It's one poll.

[forza nocta]

More and more obvious that the Selzer poll was an outlier

[EastOfEden]

Ohio is going to be a coin-flip down to the end.

I'm really interested/excited to see how Ohio plays out, especially considering that Biden updated his plans to make a stop at Cleveland. Sometimes voters reward the campaign that shows up.

He needs to be in Youngstown and Columbus instead. WWC + key realignment suburbs.

[ExSky]

Alright guys, if we’re about to panic about Wisconsin, let’s also celebrate Joe’s stunning 1 day comeback in Iowa okay?

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs nailed the OH-SEN race in 2018 (and TX-SEN), so their track record is pretty good. They had Wisconsin at Biden +7 and Biden +8 previously, so this may just be a wonky sample. Their consistency in Iowa is pretty incredible, especially in the Senate race.

OH looks like it could break towards Biden at the end, and that Bloomberg $$ could really come in handy. I would assume these are the #s that the Biden team are seeing, given their stop tomorrow.

[CellarDoor]

I'm gonna go crazy and say Biden takes both Ohio and Iowa. Trump needs much stronger polls coming out of these states.

I think there is a strong possibility he does. I'm not predicting it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Biden sweep the swing states. In wave elections it's not uncommon for one candidate to take all of the close races. And Biden has a huge money/TV advantage to make it happen.

[Kuumo]

Somehow I doubt that IA will vote only 3 points to the right of WI. I think Trump is being underestimated in IA, and Biden is being underestimated in WI.

[wbrocks67]

Hmmm... I think the biggest risk to Biden isn't PA but the possibility that his Upper Midwest polling leads are "fake" like they were in 2016.

Anything is possible, but FWIW, Civiqs nailed OH in 2018.

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_ohio_senate_2018_brown_renacci_dma_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[Hammy]

Hmmm... I think the biggest risk to Biden isn't PA but the possibility that his Upper Midwest polling leads are "fake" like they were in 2016.

Polling leads weren't fake--they simply left out a lot of voters thanks to undecideds. I wish people would quit blatantly falsifying what actually happened regarding the 2016 errors.

[kireev]

=Wisconsin starting to look really ugly...=

Starting? Didn't we get a Siena Poll with Biden +11 literally hours ago?

[swf541]

=Wisconsin starting to look really ugly...=

Starting? Didn't we get a Siena Poll with Biden +11 literally hours ago?

Yes

[wbrocks67]

If these #s are correct, Selzer is going to lose that gold standard title hard. And it's even weirder b/c these are the types of margins they were showing for their other polls before this ridiculous new one.

[AGA]

Iowa and Ohio are Lean R.

[Lief 🐋]

New Poll: Ohio President by Civiqs on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 48%, R: 49%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🐋]

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Civiqs on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 51%, R: 47%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🐋]

New Poll: Iowa President by Civiqs on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 49%, R: 48%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details