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February 26, 2021, 01:17:32 PM
Talk Elections
Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
2020 U.S. Presidential Election
2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
(Moderators:
Likely Voter
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TJ in Oregon
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YE
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ON Progressive
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Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
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Topic: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1) (Read 1265 times)
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,101
Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
on:
November 01, 2020, 07:35:46 PM »
«
edited:
November 01, 2020, 08:03:59 PM
by
YE »
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/1/1991643/-Final-Iowa-Ohio-and-Wisconsin-Civiqs-poll-confirm-that-Trump-is-in-trouble-in-these-three-red-stat
Iowa
Biden 49
Trump 48
Greenfield 50
Ernst 47
Wisconsin
Biden 51
Trump 47
Ohio
Biden 48
Trump 49
Logged
President Joe Biden. It's OVER.
libertpaulian
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,376
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #1 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:36:33 PM »
Ohio is going to be a coin-flip down to the end.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,832
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #2 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:36:45 PM »
Hmmm... I think the biggest risk to Biden isn't PA but the possibility that his Upper Midwest polling leads are "fake" like they were in 2016.
Logged
CellarDoor
Jr. Member
Posts: 757
Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #3 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:38:27 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on November 01, 2020, 07:36:33 PM
Ohio is going to be a coin-flip down to the end.
I'm really interested/excited to see how Ohio plays out, especially considering that Biden updated his plans to make a stop at Cleveland. Sometimes voters reward the campaign that shows up.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,653
Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #4 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:38:50 PM »
Biden is at 51% in Wisconsin. It'll be fine. He is actually contesting the state this year and any Democrats who didn't vote in 2016 now have the benefit of hindsight.
I still have absolutely no idea what to make of Iowa or Ohio in this election.
Logged
ExSky
Jr. Member
Posts: 496
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #5 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:39:01 PM »
I’ve got a feeling that Selzer poll is gonna be the most memorable outlier of the cycle
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,015
Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #6 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:39:08 PM »
Over 50% in Wisconsin is quite good for Biden. It's not as big of a margin as other polls, but it definitely is still a good number.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,300
Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #7 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:39:37 PM »
and now in the final stretch we have abandoned the PA Panic! for the WI Worry!
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Weimar Amerika
SlamDunk
Jr. Member
Posts: 778
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #8 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:39:46 PM »
I'm gonna go crazy and say Biden takes both Ohio and Iowa. Trump needs much stronger polls coming out of these states.
Logged
We Made PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,499
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #9 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:40:28 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on November 01, 2020, 07:35:46 PM
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/1/1991643/-Final-Iowa-Ohio-and-Wisconsin-Civiqs-poll-confirm-that-Trump-is-in-trouble-in-these-three-red-stat
Wisconsin starting to look really ugly...
It's one poll.
Logged
forza nocta
Jr. Member
Posts: 587
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #10 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:41:00 PM »
More and more obvious that the Selzer poll was an outlier
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EastOfEden
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,746
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #11 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:41:14 PM »
Quote from: CellarDoor on November 01, 2020, 07:38:27 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on November 01, 2020, 07:36:33 PM
Ohio is going to be a coin-flip down to the end.
I'm really interested/excited to see how Ohio plays out, especially considering that Biden updated his plans to make a stop at Cleveland. Sometimes voters reward the campaign that shows up.
He needs to be in Youngstown and Columbus instead. WWC + key realignment suburbs.
Logged
ExSky
Jr. Member
Posts: 496
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #12 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:41:21 PM »
Alright guys, if we’re about to panic about Wisconsin, let’s also celebrate Joe’s stunning 1 day comeback in Iowa okay?
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,473
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #13 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:41:31 PM »
Civiqs nailed the OH-SEN race in 2018 (and TX-SEN), so their track record is pretty good. They had Wisconsin at Biden +7 and Biden +8 previously, so this may just be a wonky sample. Their consistency in Iowa is pretty incredible, especially in the Senate race.
OH looks like it could break towards Biden at the end, and that Bloomberg $$ could really come in handy. I would assume these are the #s that the Biden team are seeing, given their stop tomorrow.
Logged
CellarDoor
Jr. Member
Posts: 757
Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #14 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:42:45 PM »
Quote from: SlamDunk on November 01, 2020, 07:39:46 PM
I'm gonna go crazy and say Biden takes both Ohio and Iowa. Trump needs much stronger polls coming out of these states.
I think there is a strong possibility he does. I'm not predicting it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Biden sweep the swing states. In wave elections it's not uncommon for one candidate to take all of the close races. And Biden has a huge money/TV advantage to make it happen.
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Frémont Nationalist Old Idahoan
Kuumo
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,189
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #15 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:42:52 PM »
Somehow I doubt that IA will vote only 3 points to the right of WI. I think Trump is being underestimated in IA, and Biden is being underestimated in WI.
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,473
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #16 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:43:03 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 01, 2020, 07:36:45 PM
Hmmm... I think the biggest risk to Biden isn't PA but the possibility that his Upper Midwest polling leads are "fake" like they were in 2016.
Anything is possible, but FWIW, Civiqs nailed OH in 2018.
https://civiqs.com/results/vote_ohio_senate_2018_brown_renacci_dma_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
Logged
Hammy
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,244
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #17 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:43:37 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 01, 2020, 07:36:45 PM
Hmmm... I think the biggest risk to Biden isn't PA but the possibility that his Upper Midwest polling leads are "fake" like they were in 2016.
Polling leads weren't fake--they simply left out a lot of voters thanks to undecideds. I wish people would quit blatantly falsifying what actually happened regarding the 2016 errors.
Logged
kireev
Jr. Member
Posts: 292
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #18 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:43:44 PM »
=Wisconsin starting to look really ugly...=
Starting? Didn't we get a Siena Poll with Biden +11 literally hours ago?
Logged
swf541
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,745
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #19 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:45:05 PM »
Quote from: kireev on November 01, 2020, 07:43:44 PM
=Wisconsin starting to look really ugly...=
Starting? Didn't we get a Siena Poll with Biden +11 literally hours ago?
Yes
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,473
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #20 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:46:34 PM »
If these #s are correct, Selzer is going to lose that gold standard title hard. And it's even weirder b/c these are the types of margins they were showing for their other polls before this ridiculous new one.
Logged
AGA
YaBB God
Posts: 3,583
Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: -6.87
Re: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
«
Reply #21 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:47:54 PM »
Iowa and Ohio are Lean R.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,101
OH: Civiqs: Trump +1
«
Reply #22 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:48:00 PM »
New Poll:
Ohio President by Civiqs on 2020-11-01
Summary: D: 48%, R: 49%, U: 1%
Poll Source URL:
Full Poll Details
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,101
WI: Civiqs: Biden +4
«
Reply #23 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:48:07 PM »
New Poll:
Wisconsin President by Civiqs on 2020-11-01
Summary: D: 51%, R: 47%, U: 0%
Poll Source URL:
Full Poll Details
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,101
IA: Civiqs: Biden +1
«
Reply #24 on:
November 01, 2020, 07:48:10 PM »
New Poll:
Iowa President by Civiqs on 2020-11-01
Summary: D: 49%, R: 48%, U: 0%
Poll Source URL:
Full Poll Details
Logged
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