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December 03, 2020, 01:50:17 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)
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Author Topic: Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)  (Read 980 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: November 01, 2020, 07:35:46 PM »
« edited: November 01, 2020, 08:03:59 PM by YE »

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/1/1991643/-Final-Iowa-Ohio-and-Wisconsin-Civiqs-poll-confirm-that-Trump-is-in-trouble-in-these-three-red-stat

Iowa

Biden 49
Trump 48

Greenfield 50
Ernst 47

Wisconsin

Biden 51
Trump 47

Ohio

Biden 48
Trump 49
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2020, 07:36:33 PM »

Ohio is going to be a coin-flip down to the end.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2020, 07:36:45 PM »

Hmmm... I think the biggest risk to Biden isn't PA but the possibility that his Upper Midwest polling leads are "fake" like they were in 2016.
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2020, 07:38:27 PM »

Ohio is going to be a coin-flip down to the end.


I'm really interested/excited to see how Ohio plays out, especially considering that Biden updated his plans to make a stop at Cleveland. Sometimes voters reward the campaign that shows up.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2020, 07:38:50 PM »

Biden is at 51% in Wisconsin. It'll be fine. He is actually contesting the state this year and any Democrats who didn't vote in 2016 now have the benefit of hindsight.

I still have absolutely no idea what to make of Iowa or Ohio in this election.
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ExSky
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2020, 07:39:01 PM »

Ive got a feeling that Selzer poll is gonna be the most memorable outlier of the cycle
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DrScholl
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2020, 07:39:08 PM »

Over 50% in Wisconsin is quite good for Biden. It's not as big of a margin as other polls, but it definitely is still a good number.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2020, 07:39:37 PM »

and now in the final stretch we have abandoned the PA Panic! for the WI Worry!
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SlamDunk
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2020, 07:39:46 PM »

I'm gonna go crazy and say Biden takes both Ohio and Iowa. Trump needs much stronger polls coming out of these states.
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We Made PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2020, 07:40:28 PM »


It's one poll.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2020, 07:41:00 PM »

More and more obvious that the Selzer poll was an outlier
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2020, 07:41:14 PM »

Ohio is going to be a coin-flip down to the end.


I'm really interested/excited to see how Ohio plays out, especially considering that Biden updated his plans to make a stop at Cleveland. Sometimes voters reward the campaign that shows up.

He needs to be in Youngstown and Columbus instead. WWC + key realignment suburbs.
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ExSky
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2020, 07:41:21 PM »

Alright guys, if were about to panic about Wisconsin, lets also celebrate Joes stunning 1 day comeback in Iowa okay?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2020, 07:41:31 PM »

Civiqs nailed the OH-SEN race in 2018 (and TX-SEN), so their track record is pretty good. They had Wisconsin at Biden +7 and Biden +8 previously, so this may just be a wonky sample. Their consistency in Iowa is pretty incredible, especially in the Senate race.

OH looks like it could break towards Biden at the end, and that Bloomberg $$ could really come in handy. I would assume these are the #s that the Biden team are seeing, given their stop tomorrow.
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2020, 07:42:45 PM »

I'm gonna go crazy and say Biden takes both Ohio and Iowa. Trump needs much stronger polls coming out of these states.

I think there is a strong possibility he does. I'm not predicting it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Biden sweep the swing states. In wave elections it's not uncommon for one candidate to take all of the close races. And Biden has a huge money/TV advantage to make it happen.
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Kuumo
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2020, 07:42:52 PM »

Somehow I doubt that IA will vote only 3 points to the right of WI. I think Trump is being underestimated in IA, and Biden is being underestimated in WI.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2020, 07:43:03 PM »

Hmmm... I think the biggest risk to Biden isn't PA but the possibility that his Upper Midwest polling leads are "fake" like they were in 2016.

Anything is possible, but FWIW, Civiqs nailed OH in 2018.

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_ohio_senate_2018_brown_renacci_dma_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
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Hammy
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2020, 07:43:37 PM »

Hmmm... I think the biggest risk to Biden isn't PA but the possibility that his Upper Midwest polling leads are "fake" like they were in 2016.

Polling leads weren't fake--they simply left out a lot of voters thanks to undecideds. I wish people would quit blatantly falsifying what actually happened regarding the 2016 errors.
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kireev
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2020, 07:43:44 PM »

=Wisconsin starting to look really ugly...=

Starting? Didn't we get a Siena Poll with Biden +11 literally hours ago?
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swf541
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2020, 07:45:05 PM »

=Wisconsin starting to look really ugly...=

Starting? Didn't we get a Siena Poll with Biden +11 literally hours ago?

Yes

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2020, 07:46:34 PM »

If these #s are correct, Selzer is going to lose that gold standard title hard. And it's even weirder b/c these are the types of margins they were showing for their other polls before this ridiculous new one.
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AGA
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2020, 07:47:54 PM »

Iowa and Ohio are Lean R.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2020, 07:48:00 PM »

New Poll: Ohio President by Civiqs on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 48%, R: 49%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2020, 07:48:07 PM »

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Civiqs on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 51%, R: 47%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2020, 07:48:10 PM »

New Poll: Iowa President by Civiqs on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 49%, R: 48%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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