Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)

[Lief 🗽]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/1/1991643/-Final-Iowa-Ohio-and-Wisconsin-Civiqs-poll-confirm-that-Trump-is-in-trouble-in-these-three-red-stat

Iowa

Biden 49
Trump 48

Greenfield 50
Ernst 47

Wisconsin

Biden 51
Trump 47

Ohio

Biden 48
Trump 49

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Ohio President by Civiqs on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 48%, R: 49%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Civiqs on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 51%, R: 47%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Iowa President by Civiqs on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 49%, R: 48%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

Hmmm... I think the biggest risk to Biden isn't PA but the possibility that his Upper Midwest polling leads are "fake" like they were in 2016.

Anything is possible, but FWIW, Civiqs nailed OH in 2018.

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_ohio_senate_2018_brown_renacci_dma_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Doesn't look like we're getting another TX poll from them unfortunately. They nailed TX in 2018 too.

[Lief 🗽]

If these #s are correct, Selzer is going to lose that gold standard title hard. And it's even weirder b/c these are the types of margins they were showing for their other polls before this ridiculous new one.

No, they're not.

Even a hypothetically perfect pollster would have an outlier occasionally.  This is inherent in the nature of sampling, and it is inescapable.  Some pollsters will hold back their outliers because they don't want to look like they don't know what they're doing.  A good pollster will go ahead and release it, because their reputation is strong enough that they don't need to play those games.  The Selzer poll and the ABC/WaPo poll with Biden+17 in Wisconsin are both in that situation.  Both pollsters are very good, and neither pollster's reputation will (or at least should) suffer if those polls turn out to be the outliers they look like now.

Sure but this will be the third Iowa election in a row they've gotten wrong at this point. They blew the 2020 caucus and the 2018 governor race.