Civiqs- Iowa (B+1), Wisconsin (B+4), Ohio (T+1)

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs nailed the OH-SEN race in 2018 (and TX-SEN), so their track record is pretty good. They had Wisconsin at Biden +7 and Biden +8 previously, so this may just be a wonky sample. Their consistency in Iowa is pretty incredible, especially in the Senate race.

OH looks like it could break towards Biden at the end, and that Bloomberg $$ could really come in handy. I would assume these are the #s that the Biden team are seeing, given their stop tomorrow.

[wbrocks67]

Hmmm... I think the biggest risk to Biden isn't PA but the possibility that his Upper Midwest polling leads are "fake" like they were in 2016.

Anything is possible, but FWIW, Civiqs nailed OH in 2018.

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_ohio_senate_2018_brown_renacci_dma_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[wbrocks67]

If these #s are correct, Selzer is going to lose that gold standard title hard. And it's even weirder b/c these are the types of margins they were showing for their other polls before this ridiculous new one.

[wbrocks67]

Hope this means they're doing another official round of final state polls tomorrow too

[wbrocks67]

Hope this means they're doing another official round of final state polls tomorrow too

It seems not:

This is it, last round of 2020 public state polling.

Ugh. Do they mean this is the start of the last round or this is literally the last round?