My final Senate race predictions

[Ferguson97]

Important Races
Georgia (regular): Ossoff+1 (avoids runoff)
Montana: Daines+2
Iowa: Ernst+2
Kansas: Marshall+3
South Carolina: Graham+3
Maine: Gideon+3 (second round)
North Carolina: Cunningham+4
Alaska: Sullivan+4
Georgia (special): Warnock+4 (runoff)
Texas: Cornyn+5
Michigan: Peters+8
Arizona: Kelly+9
Colorado: Hickenlooper+10
Alabama: Tuberville+12

[cp]

Graham +3, surely.

[Xing]

Assuming you meant to put Graham ahead, this is my prediction, except with Republicans winning GA-S, and some of the margins (like NC) are a bit different.

[Calthrina950]

Important Races
Georgia (regular): Ossoff+1 (avoids runoff)
Montana: Daines+2
Iowa: Ernst+2
Kansas: Marshall+3
South Carolina: Harrison+3
Maine: Gideon+3 (second round)
North Carolina: Cunningham+4
Alaska: Sullivan+4
Georgia (special): Warnock+4 (runoff)
Texas: Cornyn+5
Michigan: Peters+8
Arizona: Kelly+9
Colorado: Hickenlooper+10
Alabama: Tuberville+12

This map means (assuming Biden wins all of the Sunbelt tossup states) that no states will split their tickets between President and Senator, just like in 2016. Not the outcome I would like to see, but the one that is most likely at this point. The 2016 and 2018 trends are coming home to roost as we head into Election Day.

[Xing]

Important Races
Georgia (regular): Ossoff+1 (avoids runoff)
Montana: Daines+2
Iowa: Ernst+2
Kansas: Marshall+3
South Carolina: Harrison+3
Maine: Gideon+3 (second round)
North Carolina: Cunningham+4
Alaska: Sullivan+4
Georgia (special): Warnock+4 (runoff)
Texas: Cornyn+5
Michigan: Peters+8
Arizona: Kelly+9
Colorado: Hickenlooper+10
Alabama: Tuberville+12

This map means (assuming Biden wins all of the Sunbelt tossup states) that no states will split their tickets between President and Senator, just like in 2016. Not the outcome I would like to see, but the one that is most likely at this point. The 2016 and 2018 trends are coming home to roost as we head into Election Day.

It could mean a split in Texas.

[Calthrina950]

Important Races
Georgia (regular): Ossoff+1 (avoids runoff)
Montana: Daines+2
Iowa: Ernst+2
Kansas: Marshall+3
South Carolina: Harrison+3
Maine: Gideon+3 (second round)
North Carolina: Cunningham+4
Alaska: Sullivan+4
Georgia (special): Warnock+4 (runoff)
Texas: Cornyn+5
Michigan: Peters+8
Arizona: Kelly+9
Colorado: Hickenlooper+10
Alabama: Tuberville+12

This map means (assuming Biden wins all of the Sunbelt tossup states) that no states will split their tickets between President and Senator, just like in 2016. Not the outcome I would like to see, but the one that is most likely at this point. The 2016 and 2018 trends are coming home to roost as we head into Election Day.

It could mean a split in Texas.

That's true, but given the early vote data we're seeing, indicating that Hegar is running on par with Biden, I'm not so sure that will be the outcome. My hunch is that Biden and Hegar will win together, or they will lose together.

[Ferguson97]

This map means (assuming Biden wins all of the Sunbelt tossup states) that no states will split their tickets between President and Senator, just like in 2016. Not the outcome I would like to see, but the one that is most likely at this point. The 2016 and 2018 trends are coming home to roost as we head into Election Day.

It could mean a split in Texas.

Yup, I'm predicting Biden/Cornyn victories.

Graham +3, surely.

Oop, yes I meant Graham.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

About what I expect. For the record, I’m expecting a narrow Biden-Cornyn split in Texas.  I’m hoping we can get a surprise win in one or more of MT, TX or IA.

[WD]

About what I expect. For the record, I’m expecting a narrow Biden-Cornyn split in Texas.  I’m hoping we can get a surprise win in one or more of MT, TX or IA.

IA isn’t happening, but I think Bullock can squeak it out in MT. Not sure about TX, if Biden does better than expected (i.e a 2-3 win) Cornyn could go down.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

About what I expect. For the record, I’m expecting a narrow Biden-Cornyn split in Texas.  I’m hoping we can get a surprise win in one or more of MT, TX or IA.

IA isn’t happening, but I think Bullock can squeak it out in MT. Not sure about TX, if Biden does better than expected (i.e a 2-3 win) Cornyn could go down.

I’m not expecting any of those three to happen, just remarking on how a surprise win in one of those states would be really nice.

Pretty crazy how GA wouldn’t really be considered a surprise win to people paying attention.

[xavier110]

Do we normally do a final predictions thread? This has made me think about finalizing mine

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA, SC, KS, TX and MT are still in play, this prediction will be incorrect

Gross has a chance they said AK vote will be coming in slow due to time zone, we on the West Coast know about this due to time zones, AK, OR races are always slow

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't like criticizing maps but when you make a topic and make a bold predicting, you are opening yourself up to criticize

[Tender Branson]

Looks fine, but I think Bullock, Harrison and/or Gross could surprise.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Important Races
Georgia (regular): Ossoff+1 (avoids runoff)
Montana: Daines+2
Iowa: Ernst+2
Kansas: Marshall+3
South Carolina: Graham+3
Maine: Gideon+3 (second round)
North Carolina: Cunningham+4
Alaska: Sullivan+4
Georgia (special): Warnock+4 (runoff)
Texas: Cornyn+5
Michigan: Peters+8
Arizona: Kelly+9
Colorado: Hickenlooper+10
Alabama: Tuberville+12

I think Osoff would have to be winning by 2% or so to avoid a runoff. Otherwise, while I don't fully 100% agree on everything, this map seems very reasonable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He has to own up to it, irregardless of if it's a blue wave.  I have a D friendly map, I see the polls, but my map is there in case of a blue wave

If the votes aren't finished counted on Nov 3rd and it takes States til the end of month to count AK, GA, IA, KS, MT, SC and TX, USERS will be on the user complaint board after 2014/ LA runoff, saying the cant updates their maps

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

This is where I'm close to as well, although I'm not sure on NC and the Georgia races.