Here it is: Tender's FINAL prediction THREAD for 2020.
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  Here it is: Tender's FINAL prediction THREAD for 2020.		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Here it is: Tender's FINAL prediction THREAD for 2020.  (Read 1308 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« on: November 01, 2020, 10:34:14 AM »
« edited: November 02, 2020, 03:53:08 AM by Tender Branson »
Here is what you have all been waiting for:



Confidence:



---

Prediction Link

---

National Result:

52.67% Biden/Harris (D) - ELECTED
44.83% Trump/Pence (R)
 1.01% Jorgensen/Cohen (L)
 0.62% Hawkins/Walker (G)
 0.87% Others (Kanye West etc.)

---

Detailed state predictions will follow tomorrow.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2020, 10:37:55 AM »
Turnout (total ballots cast, includes ballots cast for other races and invalid votes cast:

157.4 million (+18.5 million, up from 138.9 million in 2016, +13%)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2020, 10:48:42 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2020, 10:55:06 AM by Tender Branson »
Some details for states that Trump narrowly or moderately wins (I'm not bothering with Jorgensen, Hawkins or Kanye in those):

OH:

49.3% Trump
48.1% Biden

IA:

49.7% Trump
47.6% Biden

SC:

53.1% Trump
45.5% Biden

MO:

51.9% Trump
46.8% Biden

IN:

52.5% Trump
46.1% Biden

KS:

53.6% Trump
43.9% Biden

MT:

51.1% Trump
46.0% Biden

AK:

51.7% Trump
44.4% Biden

Honourable mention:

UT:

52.9% Trump
40.5% Biden
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Inmate Trump
GWBFan
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Posts: 12,063


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -7.30

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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2020, 10:58:05 AM »
Freedom map.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2020, 10:59:27 AM »
GREAT LAKES:

MN:

51.4% Biden
45.8% Trump

WI:

51.0% Biden
47.5% Trump

MI:

53.9% Biden
44.3% Trump

PA:

50.1% Biden
48.5% Trump
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2020, 11:00:35 AM »
If anyone spots a mistake re: state percentages not matching my prediction map (= 0-5% tossup, 5-10% lean, 10%+ strong), please let me know.
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ultraviolet
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,960
United States


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E: 0.71, S: -3.22

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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2020, 11:01:14 AM »
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407940.msg7698947#msg7698947
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2020, 11:06:12 AM »
NORTH-EAST (boring):

NH:

54.1% Biden
44.0% Trump

ME:

54.9% Biden
43.3% Trump

ME-02:

49.0% Biden
48.8% Trump
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,803
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2020, 11:07:58 AM »
This is actually my map too. The only difference is that I remain undecided on Texas, I had it as going to Trump last week, don't know now.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2020, 11:08:02 AM »

I was joking around a bit.

This is the real sh*t.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2020, 11:15:23 AM »
SOUTHERN EAST-COAST:

VA:

54.6% Biden
43.0% Trump

NC:

50.4% Biden
48.4% Trump

GA:

50.0% Biden
48.8% Trump

FL:

51.0% Biden
47.9% Trump

Bonus:

MS:

54.4% Trump
43.6% Biden
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2020, 11:22:43 AM »
BIDEN's WEST:

NV:

51.1% Biden
46.0% Trump

AZ:

50.5% Biden
48.0% Trump

CO:

56.5% Biden
40.3% Trump

NM:

55.5% Biden
42.3% Trump

TX:

49.0% Biden
48.8% Trump

NE-02:

50.2% Biden
46.7% Trump
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2020, 11:24:02 AM »
I think I got every more or less important state.

Maybe some final adjustments tomorrow, but tomorrow I'll do Senate, House and Governors.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2020, 11:37:55 AM »
WV (for the LOLs):

61.3% Trump
37.0% Biden
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2020, 01:41:28 PM »
OR:

57.4% Biden
40.4% Trump
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2020, 03:54:03 AM »
A few changes I made:

TN and LA are no longer rated 60%+ for Trump.

Maybe 59.7% or something in the end in TN and 58.5% in LA.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2020, 03:57:01 AM »
I predict TX to be the closest state (0.2% difference !!!), followed by OH and GA.

The 120.000 curbside votes will turn out to be really important.
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S019ian Liberal
Beacon
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2020, 01:46:59 AM »
What, no way that could be true! So Shocked given into the: after all, huh.
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