Why is Biden polling better in WI than PA

[Scottholes 2.0]

I remember when a lot of forecasters thought WI would be the tipping point state and vote to the right of PA. Now it seems like the opposite based on recent polling.

[Hammy]

Because his support there is stronger. It's the only2016 "firewall" state where he won through a surge of votes, instead of simply a drop in D turnout.

[Hope For A New Era]

Several reasons.

1:

Because his support there is stronger. It's the only2016 "firewall" state where he won through a surge of votes, instead of simply a drop in D turnout.

2: Wisconsin has the combination of the Driftless bouncing back toward the Democrats and suburbs shifting left. Pennsylvania only has the suburbs. Those rurals aren't coming back.

3: Wisconsin is currently experiencing a massive virus surge, which has been ongoing for a while now. During the summer it became clear that virus surges push Trump down a bit and Biden up a bit in places where they happen. We saw it in Texas and Florida, and now we see it in Wisconsin and Iowa.

[LimoLiberal]

The answer is that the polling in Wisconsin is off by more.

[Hope For A New Era]

The answer is that the polling in Wisconsin is off by more.

ok doomer

[Tekken_Guy]

Several reasons.

1:

Because his support there is stronger. It's the only2016 "firewall" state where he won through a surge of votes, instead of simply a drop in D turnout.

2: Wisconsin has the combination of the Driftless bouncing back toward the Democrats and suburbs shifting left. Pennsylvania only has the suburbs. Those rurals aren't coming back.

3: Wisconsin is currently experiencing a massive virus surge, which has been ongoing for a while now. During the summer it became clear that virus surges push Trump down a bit and Biden up a bit in places where they happen. We saw it in Texas and Florida, and now we see it in Wisconsin and Iowa.

Why is the Driftless area more receptive to Biden than the PA rurals?

[SaneDemocrat]

Several reasons.

1:

Because his support there is stronger. It's the only2016 "firewall" state where he won through a surge of votes, instead of simply a drop in D turnout.

PA rurals in my experience are more similar to Appalachans.

2: Wisconsin has the combination of the Driftless bouncing back toward the Democrats and suburbs shifting left. Pennsylvania only has the suburbs. Those rurals aren't coming back.

3: Wisconsin is currently experiencing a massive virus surge, which has been ongoing for a while now. During the summer it became clear that virus surges push Trump down a bit and Biden up a bit in places where they happen. We saw it in Texas and Florida, and now we see it in Wisconsin and Iowa.

Why is the Driftless area more receptive to Biden than the PA rurals?

[Hammy]

Why is the Driftless area more receptive to Biden than the PA rurals?

Wisconsin had a massive drop in voters going for either major party, and is one of the states Hillary lost the most votes in from Obama--there might be a larger pool of D voters who simply didn't like Hillary that Biden could regain.

The answer is that the polling in Wisconsin is off by more.

Literally do you have a shred of evidence to make this claim? Biden's at or over 50%, much smaller undecided pool this election, and at no point was Hillary over-polled.

[LimoLiberal]

Why is the Driftless area more receptive to Biden than the PA rurals?

Wisconsin had a massive drop in voters going for either major party, and is one of the states Hillary lost the most votes in from Obama--there might be a larger pool of D voters who simply didn't like Hillary that Biden could regain.

The answer is that the polling in Wisconsin is off by more.

Literally do you have a shred of evidence to make this claim? Biden's at or over 50%, much smaller undecided pool this election, and at no point was Hillary over-polled.

My evidence is that polling overestimated Democrats in Wisconsin more than it overestimated them in Pennsylvania in both 2016 and 2018. In terms of fundamentals, Wisconsin is whiter and less-educated than Pennsylvania.

Please don't misconstrue this as me saying that Biden will lose Wisconsin, I'm just answering the question posed in the title.

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is the Driftless area more receptive to Biden than the PA rurals?

Wisconsin had a massive drop in voters going for either major party, and is one of the states Hillary lost the most votes in from Obama--there might be a larger pool of D voters who simply didn't like Hillary that Biden could regain.

What about vote-switchers?

[Buzz]

Wisconsin is harder to poll.  It polled 4 points to the left of PA in 2016 yet netted the same.

[Hope For A New Era]

Why is the Driftless area more receptive to Biden than the PA rurals?

It went strongly D in the 2018 midterms, it was decidedly less Trumpy than its surroundings in 2016, and it's culturally distinct - more akin to rural New England than to anywhere in the Midwest.

Also, it's the most logical way to explain Biden doing better in Wisconsin polling than Pennsylvania polling.

[Tekken_Guy]

Why is the Driftless area more receptive to Biden than the PA rurals?

It went strongly D in the 2018 midterms, it was decidedly less Trumpy than its surroundings in 2016, and it's culturally distinct - more akin to rural New England than to anywhere in the Midwest.

Also, it's the most logical way to explain Biden doing better in Wisconsin polling than Pennsylvania polling.

How exactly are they different? What about them makes them behave differently?

[MillennialModerate]

This is a good question I remember so many threads asking if the wi bet of Wisconsin definetly wins the election and I was convinced that was the case.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think there was a feeling that the Philly area is far too anti-Trump for him to overcome. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is much more evenly split and Madison too small to overpower the rest of the state.

[Hammy]

Why is the Driftless area more receptive to Biden than the PA rurals?

Wisconsin had a massive drop in voters going for either major party, and is one of the states Hillary lost the most votes in from Obama--there might be a larger pool of D voters who simply didn't like Hillary that Biden could regain.

The answer is that the polling in Wisconsin is off by more.

Literally do you have a shred of evidence to make this claim? Biden's at or over 50%, much smaller undecided pool this election, and at no point was Hillary over-polled.

My evidence is that polling overestimated Democrats in Wisconsin more than it overestimated them in Pennsylvania in both 2016 and 2018. In terms of fundamentals, Wisconsin is whiter and less-educated than Pennsylvania.

Please don't misconstrue this as me saying that Biden will lose Wisconsin, I'm just answering the question posed in the title.

I'm trying to get where you're seeing the polls having over-estimated them in the first place when Hillary's vote share was almost spot-on as far as the averages. Margins don't matter in the end (see my sig) and both Trump and Hillary came in higher than the % polls had them at--final result was R 47.2-D 46.5, and RCP average was R 40.3-D 46.8. Undecideds simply broke heavily for Trump, and there were a lot of them.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Man and to think I thought LimoLiberal was worth taking off ignore. Back on it you go.

Because his support there is stronger. It's the only2016 "firewall" state where he won through a surge of votes, instead of simply a drop in D turnout.

This is not true. Turnout dropped worse in Milwaukee than in Philadelphia. Also Trump received slightly less votes than Romney did in Wisconsin.

If we assume the polls are correct there's several possible answers to this question but we won't know until we have county/precinct results. My suspicion: Biden is set to perform the strongest in WOW of any Democrat since 1964. (This is actually probably also true of outer ring Philly suburbs and Chester County, but this would be less of a bounce for him.)

[Hammy]

Man and to think I thought LimoLiberal was worth taking off ignore. Back on it you go.

Because his support there is stronger. It's the only2016 "firewall" state where he won through a surge of votes, instead of simply a drop in D turnout.

This is not true. Turnout dropped worse in Milwaukee than in Philadelphia. Also Trump received slightly less votes than Romney did in Wisconsin.

If we assume the polls are correct there's several possible answers to this question but we won't know until we have county/precinct results. My suspicion: Biden is set to perform the strongest in WOW of any Democrat since 1964. (This is actually probably also true of outer ring Philly suburbs and Chester County, but this would be less of a bounce for him.)

I was referring to Trump's strength being stronger in Pennsylvania and vote dropping in Wisconsin, it seems I both misread the question and mixed up my answer.

[Xing]

It could be that polling will be a bit off in WI (not enough for Trump to win it), or because his 2016 win there was more due to anti-Clinton sentiment, since he did only get 47.2%.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wisconsin got hit extra hard by the pandemic.

[philly09]

Wisconsin got hit extra hard by the pandemic.

This. The entire midwest is seeing an uptick in cases. PA has seen elevated cases, but not as much as the midwest.

[Non Swing Voter]

1) Wisconsin is more swingy than Pennsylvania

2) The virus is utterly out of control there. 

[Fargobison]

It is more than just a Covid surge in WI, the Republican party in WI has stood in the way of dealing with it and now they are paying the political price for it.

[Gustaf]

Maybe the polls are off in Trump's favour in Pennsylvania.

[Figueira]

I wouldn't be shocked if the polls in WI and MI are off, and Biden ends up winning all three states by around 6 points. But I don't see them being off to the point where Trump is winning WI or MI.