SurveyMonkey 50 states + national (no longer overlapping): Biden +6%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fixed link

National: Oct 27-30
771161 Likely voters (presumably including data points outside the 3-day rolling average)
MoE: 1%

Biden 52%
Trump 46%

State polls: Oct 16-30 (all of likely voters)

I've bolded all Biden wins to differentiate from the Trump ones.

AK: Trump 53-45
AL: Trump 60-38
AR: Trump 60-38
AZ: Biden 52-46
CA: Biden 62-36
CO: Biden 56-43
CT: Biden 61-38
DC: Biden 93-6
DE: Biden 60-39
FL: Trump 50-48 (titanium tilt R!)
GA: Biden 50-48
HI: Biden 65-32
IA: Trump 50-49
ID: Trump 60-38
IL: Biden 58-40
IN: Trump 54-44
KS: Trump 54-44
KY: Trump 59-40
LA: Trump 62-36
MA: Biden 68-29
MD: Biden 66-31
ME: Biden 55-43
MI: Biden 52-46
MN: Biden 55-42
MO: Trump 55-43
MS: Trump 62-37
MT: Trump 52-46
NC: Biden 52-47
ND: Trump 60-38
NE: Trump 56-42
NH: Biden 52-47
NJ: Biden 60-38
NM: Biden 55-43
NV: Biden 50-48
NY: Biden 63-35
OH: Trump 50-48
OK: Trump 63-36
OR: Biden 60-39
PA: Biden 52-46
RI: Biden 63-35
SC: Trump 54-44
SD: Trump 61-37
TN: Trump 56-43
TX: Trump 51-47
UT: Trump 55-43
VA: Biden 56-42
VT: Biden 70-28
WA: Biden 62-36
WI: Biden 54-44
WV: Trump 66-32
WY: Trump 65-33

[Bootes Void]

these seem reasonable except Titanium R Florida

[Hammy]

Not sure if I agree with GA/NC flipping before FL but this seems reasonable otherwise. And is only a point more favorable to Trump than my 52-45 forecast so that could see FL flip as well.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Surprised IA is only Trump +1, I never seriously thought any Dem had a chance of winning it barring a D landslide.

Edit: I feel vindicated by the CA race and age crosstabs. Younger CA Asians are slightly more Dem than Younger CA Latinos. This applies for 18-34 but is more pronounced for 25-34.

[charcuterie]

Survey Monkey is hot trash and the fact that this is a reasonable result does not change that.

[pbrower2a]

Tightening late after diverging just a short time ago?

[Podgy the Bear]

The statewide polls seem to be as good as any.    FL and TX will continue to break Democratic hearts whereas the new Sun Belt reality could be AZ, GA, and NC.