IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Horus]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely GOP flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Her win in the 2018 wave was anemic. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

How "doesn't" Cedar Rapids count? It's the second largest city in the state.

That doesn't mean it's a major city.

[new_patomic]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

Hello, outlier. This is just not possible even remotely.

I JUST WARNED EVERYONE its a sample size of 200 for the district polls and it should be discounted, I even recall having this exact conversation a few months . There is obviously no way Iowa 2nd is 14 points to the left of the first but thats merely MOE and the district polls are merely crosstabs and should be seen as such, I have no idea why Selzer even reports them without at least doubling their total poll size. Even if the 1st is way too R friendly, for Trump +7 the 4th is way too D friendly. The 2nd seems about right and I am not sure about the 3rd which is the only Iowa district that has a major city so it could trend differently.

However Iowa 2nd and the 1st had the same Obama and Trump numbers although the 2nd has more red rurals while the 1st has less blue D counties.

It should be noted, that they say they weigh by Congressional District.

[Pericles]

Yikes, scary poll.

[It’s so Joever]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

Do i have to keep spamming small sample size for the districts, therefore high MOE. Junk the district polls.

According to a poll I did of four people in San Francisco, Jorgensen won all of them. The Jorgenslide is coming.

[Horus]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

They're entrenched and Bustos is a high ranking Dem. Kind will be gone in the next Dem midterm and Bustos will only survive due to gerrymandering. If Illinois passes fair redistricting she's likely out too in the next D midterm.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322688218697998338?s=20

Contented Indie with all due respect.. is a complete idiot.

I've seen him claim that Montana is a tossup, and that Biden would come within 10 points in WV. lmao.

[Buzz]

lOuSy SaMpLe, jUnK!

[BudgieForce]

Also an interesting note. In 2016, Obama wanted to campaign in Iowa but Hillary's team told him no because Iowa was gone. But Biden was just in Iowa this week. Biden's internal numbers must be much better than this.

[AGA]

8 pages 😳

[swf541]

lOuSy SaMpLe, jUnK!

If theyre indeed weighting by CD and have CD-01 at that then actually yes it is a junk sample lmfao

[CookieDamage]

I mean Biden's doing 3 points better than Hillary did.

[Rand]

Tilt D.

[Tekken_Guy]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

They're entrenched and Bustos is a high ranking Dem. Kind will be gone in the next Dem midterm and Bustos will only survive due to gerrymandering. If Illinois passes fair redistricting she's likely out too in the next D midterm.

Well, Miller-Meeks doesn’t seem to be pulling away with IA-2 either.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1322687781672378368

[LimoLiberal]

Not y'all trying to unskew the results through their CD polls. It's n = 200, they're bound to be wonky. The n = 800 sample that shows a Biden collapse is really the only part of the poll that matters.

[swf541]

Not y'all trying to unskew the results through their CD polls. It's n = 200, they're bound to be wonky. The n = 800 sample that shows a Biden collapse is really the only part of the poll that matters.

They apparently weight by congressional district so yes they actually may matter

[Horus]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

They're entrenched and Bustos is a high ranking Dem. Kind will be gone in the next Dem midterm and Bustos will only survive due to gerrymandering. If Illinois passes fair redistricting she's likely out too in the next D midterm.

Well, Miller-Meeks doesn’t seem to be pulling away with IA-2 either.

Miller-Meeks is a perennial candidate who has her own issues. The Republican in IA-01 is much stronger.

[Wisconsin+17]

Do i have to keep spamming small sample size for the districts, therefore high MOE. Junk the district polls from Selzer. Iowa 2nd and Iowa 1st should basically have the same margin.

MOE is +/- 7, meaning that the district instead of being +15 is still R+8.

That would knock this poll down, maybe 2 percent to R+5 in Iowa.

[VAR]

Well, since I doubt Selzer’s going to be off by 7, it’s time for:

RIP 413

[NOVA Green]

*** I apologize for the sh*t posting tonight everyone.  I don’t think I’m gonna be having much fun in 3 days, so let me have my moment right now.

Again, you are still missing the point that Trump is still trailing in several states that he needs to win the electoral college. Even if he does carry Iowa again he can't become President again in he's losing Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin plus Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. The math is impossible.

tbf... my read on the post that Buzz made is that although he is excited about this poll and wants the moment of glory, that he still believes that Biden will win the EC and the Election.

Sometimes PUB avatars who make clear that they support Trump's reelection (For a variety of reasons) get a bad rep, while simultaneously recognizing that the "Fundamentals" and overwhelming preponderance of evidence indicates that Trump will lose the EC in 2020.

DEMs are correct not to get complacent in 2020 after the massive polling misses in '16, but at the same time "The Doomsters" got some valid points.

Keep calm and carry on folks....

[gf20202]

Also an interesting note. In 2016, Obama wanted to campaign in Iowa but Hillary's team told him no because Iowa was gone. But Biden was just in Iowa this week. Biden's internal numbers must be much better than this.

Biden internal was -3.2 12 days ago.

[BudgieForce]

Do i have to keep spamming small sample size for the districts, therefore high MOE. Junk the district polls from Selzer. Iowa 2nd and Iowa 1st should basically have the same margin.

MOE is +/- 7, meaning that the district instead of being +15 is still R+8.

That would knock this poll down, maybe 2 percent to R+5 in Iowa.

Even Trump up +5 would be easier to swallow.

[new_patomic]

Look no one should be unskewing their polls



But in a case where you weigh by Congressional District, wouldn't that suggests that their CD results, however small of a sample, do impact the final statewide margin here? And so an unexpected result or weird sample in one district could actually present a problem for the poll?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Typical Atlas. Of course, Trump supporters and Doomers are in here salivating over one poll lol.

Meanwhile, ignoring all of the other great polls that came out today for Biden. And ignoring the fact that this is not 2012 and Iowa is irrelevant to Biden's chances of victory.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322688218697998338?s=20

Contented Indie with all due respect.. is a complete idiot.

I've seen him claim that Montana is a tossup, and that Biden would come within 10 points in WV. lmao.

I don't think he ever said within 10 in WV.