CNN: Biden with clear leads in AZ, WI, MI, NC

[Malarkey Decider]

Interestingly, Biden is leading by 20% among those who already voted and Trump is leading by 24% among those who plan to vote. The 20% lead for Biden among the first group is great because so far registered Democrats and Republicans have cast roughly the same number of votes.

NC?

[BlueSwan]

I'll take those numbers and have some from FL, GA, TX, OH, NV and IA as well, please.

[woodley park]

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Fantastic numbers, especially North Carolina.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Oct 23-30

AZ
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/10/31/rel2_az.pdf

865 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Biden 50%
Trump 46%
Jorgensen 3%
None of these 1%
Other 0% (no voters)
No opinion 1%

Among 892 registered voters (MoE: 4%) and considering their last RV poll (Jul 18-24):

Biden 49% (n/c)
Trump 46% (+1)
Jorgensen 3% (not previously included)
None of these 1% (-2)
Other 0% (no voters) (-1)
No opinion 1% (-1)

MI
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/10/31/rel2_mi.pdf

907 likely voters
MoE: 3.8%

Biden 53%
Trump 41%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
None of these 1%
Other 0% (but some voters)
No opinion 2%

Among 953 registered voters (MoE: 3.8%) and considering their last RV poll (Jul 18-24):

Biden 54% (+2)
Trump 40% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (not previously included)
None of these 2% (-2)
Hawkins 1% (not previously included)
Other 0% (but some voters) (-1)
No opinion 2% (n/c)

NC
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/10/31/rel2_nc.pdf

901 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with Sep 9-13 (also likely voters)

Biden 51% (+2)
Trump 45% (-1)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
None of these 1% (+1 from at 0% with some voters)
Other 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
No opinion 1% (-1)

Blankenship previously included but had no voters

WI
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/10/31/rel2_wi.pdf

873 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%
Changes with Sep 9-13 (also likely voters)

Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 44% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
None of these 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Other 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
No opinion 2% (+1)

[Buzz]

If true we are all throwing eggs at Robert Cahaly

[Holmes]

If true we are all throwing eggs at Robert Cahaly

Why wait?

[Buzz]

If true we are all throwing eggs at Robert Cahaly

Why wait?

we have to make sure lol.  CNN isn’t exactly gold standard pollster.

[xavier110]

If true we are all throwing eggs at Robert Cahaly

The joke is on you. He's made some good money conning you

[Bojack Horseman]

NUT!!!!!
SWEET SASSY MOLASSEY!!!!!!!!!!!!
OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[Bootes Void]

Arizona still hasnt been put into RCP. They have trump winning Arizona with only 5 polls, 3 of which are Rasmussen, Trafalgar and Susquehanna

[Horus]

If true we are all throwing eggs at Robert Cahaly

The joke is on you. He's made some good money conning you

Maybe I'm wrong but I've never seen Buzz defend a Trafalgar poll, he just thinks Quinnipiac is equally hackish. While QPac has more reasonable crosstabs, their toplines are just as bad, in the other direction.

[Lief 🗽]

These four states are enough to win, by the way (284 to 254). Don't need PA or FL in this scenario.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm moving to NC if this poll ends up being accurate.

[Calthrina950]

Networks are really still trying to push the horse race narrative. They said "AZ and NC are tight".... 4 and 6 pt leads are not "tight" in states like these.

I've watched some of CBS News in the past few days, and they went over the "battleground map", pegging Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina as tossup states, with Texas as Lean R and Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as Lean D. While I'm sure that the networks have their own motivations for making their projections, I don't think it's wrong for people to still be mindful as we head into Election Day. Fortunately, from the record high turnout figures we are seeing, it looks like we're not going to suffer from the complacency problem.

Checking their map every week for my aggregate map, their map hasn't changed in forever and is based off of YouGov polling.

I don't understand why they would have that be the case. Watching the CBS News coverage, I got the impression that Biden is in the lead, but that Trump still has a chance to eke it out through the Electoral College. Given that the network was stunned by Trump's 2016 victory (they didn't project him as the winner until he was already giving his victory speech), they may be trying to overcompensate here.

[American2020]

Biden'd need a Knockout during the Election Night with NC and AZ, after winning MI and WI. PA'd need many more days to count every ballots.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Arizona still hasnt been put into RCP. They have trump winning Arizona with only 5 polls, 3 of which are Rasmussen, Trafalgar and Susquehanna

ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE!! (Sad)

[Lief 🗽]

Final CNN polls in 2016 in these states (they didn't poll WI/MI)

AZ (11/01)
Trump 49
Clinton 44

NC (10/15)
Clinton 48
Trump 47

[VAR]

So much for WI voting 10 points to the left of MI because muh COVID surge.

[Alben Barkley]

So much for WI voting 10 points to the left of MI because muh COVID surge.

I don’t think anyone ever actually thought it would vote 10 points left, that one poll was an obvious outlier. It’s still possible it will vote left of MI though. I see them both voting quite similarly, wouldn’t be surprised if either was slightly to the left of the other.

[Splash]

North Carolina sort of reminds me a bit of Ohio in 2012 - a small but persistent lead for the Democrat heading into election day.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'll take those numbers and have some from FL, GA, TX, OH, NV and IA as well, please.

And PA

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden at 51 in North Carolina! That's all I need to see. Hopefully he and Cooper can pull Cunningham over the finish line if this poll is accurate. I highly doubt that Biden wins it by more than Arizona though.

Networks are really still trying to push the horse race narrative. They said "AZ and NC are tight".... 4 and 6 pt leads are not "tight" in states like these.

They always do that. It's a pet peeve of mine as well.

[Lief 🗽]

Biden at 51 in North Carolina! That's all I need to see. Hopefully he and Cooper can pull Cunningham over the finish line if this poll is accurate. I highly doubt that Biden wins it by more than Arizona though.

Networks are really still trying to push the horse race narrative. They said "AZ and NC are tight".... 4 and 6 pt leads are not "tight" in states like these.

They always do that. It's a pet peeve of mine as well.

It's fine, it'll scare Democrats into voting for Biden.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden at 51 in North Carolina! That's all I need to see. Hopefully he and Cooper can pull Cunningham over the finish line if this poll is accurate. I highly doubt that Biden wins it by more than Arizona though.

Networks are really still trying to push the horse race narrative. They said "AZ and NC are tight".... 4 and 6 pt leads are not "tight" in states like these.

They always do that. It's a pet peeve of mine as well.

It's fine, it'll scare Democrats into voting for Biden.

I guess, but from what I've seen complacency has not been an issue as some might have feared again, so far.