Y2 Analytics: Biden +3 in AZ, Trump +7 in UT
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  Y2 Analytics: Biden +3 in AZ, Trump +7 in UT
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Author Topic: Y2 Analytics: Biden +3 in AZ, Trump +7 in UT  (Read 1610 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 31, 2020, 01:24:47 PM »

Oct 15-24

AZ - 700 LV, MoE: 3.7%
Biden 50%
Trump 47%

SEN: 51-47 Kelly

UT - 660 LV, MoE: 3.8%

Changes with Sept 26-Oct 4

Trump 51% (+1)
Biden 44% (+4)

GOV: 58-33 Cox

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/10/31/trump-up-over-biden-new
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redjohn
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2020, 01:25:45 PM »

UT is just 4 points to the right of AZ confirmed. Romney write-in bounce?
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mijan
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2020, 01:28:04 PM »

Great number for Joe.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2020, 01:29:43 PM »

New Poll: Arizona President by Y2 Analytics on 2020-10-24

Summary: D: 50%, R: 47%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2020, 01:30:45 PM »

New Poll: Utah President by Y2 Analytics on 2020-10-24

Summary: D: 44%, R: 51%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Darthpi Ė Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2020, 01:31:01 PM »

If Biden ends up breaking 40% in Utah, well, that really would be something.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2020, 01:31:43 PM »

Biden over 40 in Utah? Hmm
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2020, 01:33:08 PM »

Biden has not been growing support in Arizona; it could be that the margin is tightening in Arizona while widening in other states in which he has a lead. Utah only 7% for Trump? A man whose moral conduct is an affront to Mormon values deserves to lose Utah.

If any state loss by Trump not necessary for a Biden win would be sweet to me it would be Utah. The six electoral votes may not mean much, but somehow I prefer leaders who exude a moral compass in their conduct, and such is the same for every major religion. Whether one wishes to consider Mormonism mainstream Christianity or not, it is in itself a major branch of Christianity if one defines it as Christian and likely bigger than one religion (Judaism) considered a major religion, at lest as a courtesy.

I am proud to say this time that I am voting for the devout Christian.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2020, 01:33:30 PM »

That would be a beautiful result, but Iíll remain OK Doomer until Wednesday or so.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2020, 01:34:15 PM »

UT
Someone else 5% (-5 from "other" at 10%)
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2020, 01:34:19 PM »

Biden should have been running ads in Utah. Talking about how Trump doesn't represent [insert something here about "values"], maybe a few clips of Romney and other prominent Mormons or Utahns criticizing him, a clip of the McMullin endorsement. Could have been an even better comparison to Indiana 2008 than Montana or Alaska - a truly deep-R state voting D under "perfect storm" conditions.
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Buzz
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2020, 01:47:41 PM »

Y2 did terrible in Utah last time, appears they will repeat.   
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Brittain33
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2020, 01:49:06 PM »


That is nuts. You have to go back to 1964 for a Democrat to top 40% in Utah, when of course LBJ won it.
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Holmes
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2020, 01:57:36 PM »

UT is just 4 points to the right of AZ confirmed. Romney write-in bounce?

10 points
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forza nocta
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2020, 02:05:10 PM »

Y2 did terrible in Utah last time, appears they will repeat.   

Well they were off with Trumpís vote share because of a chunk of McMullin voters breaking to Trump last minute (like in other states). But they were right about what Hillary would get.
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34 Counts of Crumpets
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2020, 02:08:52 PM »

The political gap that is emerging between Mormons and Evangelical Protestants is something to behold.
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cg41386
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2020, 04:08:48 PM »

Oh my heck!
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2020, 06:00:18 PM »

Could Romney not voting for Trump have affected things here?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2020, 06:07:32 PM »

Biden should have been running ads in Utah. Talking about how Trump doesn't represent [insert something here about "values"], maybe a few clips of Romney and other prominent Mormons or Utahns criticizing him, a clip of the McMullin endorsement. Could have been an even better comparison to Indiana 2008 than Montana or Alaska - a truly deep-R state voting D under "perfect storm" conditions.

Eh, I just find it hard to see actually flipping. A Romney endorsement MAY have made it possible, but short of that I just donít think it was realistic. Probably something like this, Trump only winning my mid-single digits and Biden in the mid-40s, is the ceiling.
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Skye
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2020, 06:18:17 PM »

Biden getting 44% of the vote here would truly stun me.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2020, 06:37:28 PM »

Another poll of UT which shows McMullin '16 voters basically splitting 45%-45% Biden- Trump.

There was another UT poll which indicated that perhaps later breaking McMullin '16 voters might be breaking heavier Biden than this poll indicates.

Although granted I am not envisioning even a fantasy scenario where Trump loses UT in '20, the McMullin factor / Mormon voters might end up playing a bit of a role in AZ '20, if the election ends up within a 1-2% spread, or possibly even NV if Trump pulls a miracle out of his buttocks despite all evidence to the contrary.

Additionally, LDS adherents exist throughout the United States so theoretically even in States with relatively small Mormon populations, significant shifts in Mormon voting patterns could theoretically flip states.

To quote an old adage: "Elections are Won and Lost at the Margins".

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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2020, 07:37:15 PM »

The political gap that is emerging between Mormons and Evangelical Protestants is something to behold.

Good. I want to see the Evangelicals isolated on their own little miserable political island. They can form their own political party and have like 2 representatives from wherever in Alabama who everyone laughs at.

There's no repairing a lot of the damage they've done to this country.


That is nuts. You have to go back to 1964 for a Democrat to top 40% in Utah, when of course LBJ won it.

You have to go back to 1968 to see a Democrat over 35%!
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2020, 09:25:03 PM »

Will Romney exceed 5% like Sanders did in Vermont 2016?
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Stuart98
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2020, 11:00:38 PM »

Will Romney exceed 5% like Sanders did in Vermont 2016?
No. Romney's not especially popular anymore; conservatives view him as a traitor for his impeachment and moderates and liberals view him as an opportunist for supporting ACB. I'm not sure he'd win the 2024 primary assuming he runs for reelection.
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