MO - Remington Research: Trump +5
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  MO - Remington Research: Trump +5
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Author Topic: MO - Remington Research: Trump +5  (Read 2231 times)
forza nocta
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« on: October 31, 2020, 08:25:30 AM »

Trump 50%
Biden 45%

Oct 28-29

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5f9d55cbe9a0e4631ae6f106/1604146650952/MOSCOUT+Statewide+General+Election+103020.pptx
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2020, 08:27:29 AM »

Oct 28-29, 1010 LV, MoE: 3%

GOV: 50-44 Parson
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Buzz
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2020, 08:29:00 AM »

Bad poll for Trump, but they underestimated both him and Hawley in recent races. 
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VAR
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2020, 08:31:38 AM »

Here’s how Trump can still win:
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Figueira
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2020, 09:04:56 AM »

Bad poll for Trump, but they underestimated both him and Hawley in recent races. 

Even if this is underestimating Trump, it's still bad news for him.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2020, 09:08:50 AM »

Remington tends to be a bit iffy, but even if all undecides broke for Trump, and you shave off 2% from Biden's number it still indicates a nearly 8% swing since 2016
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2020, 09:11:51 AM »

Missouri is more of a swing state than Michigan. Dominating!
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2020, 10:03:58 AM »

If there is a Missouri upset, I guess that proves I know nothing about politics.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2020, 10:05:27 AM »

Trump is leading by the same amount in Missouri as Biden is in Pennsylvania
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2020, 10:06:42 AM »

Galloway is finished
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forza nocta
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2020, 10:15:21 AM »

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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2020, 10:31:18 AM »

I just...don't understand where these Dems are coming from. Missouri should be matching Indiana, and it isn't. Where's the cause? Holcomb coattails or something?

I have to assume Greene County has held trends back and then jumped left all at once.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2020, 10:55:14 AM »

I just...don't understand where these Dems are coming from. Missouri should be matching Indiana, and it isn't. Where's the cause? Holcomb coattails or something?

I have to assume Greene County has held trends back and then jumped left all at once.
St. Louis and Kansas City suburbs are starting to catch up with the rest of the trends.  Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, and South Bend suburbs are too, but at a slower pace.  Plus, the Fort Wayne area is VERY Evangelical and traditional Catholic.  Many evangelical parachurches are headquartered there.  Concordia Seminary Fort Wayne, probably the most traditionalist Lutheran seminary in the world, is also in Fort Wayne.
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2020, 11:09:22 AM »

I could see MO ending up around the Obama 2012 margin, with a more suburban coalition but less rural coalition. Suburban KC (Clay, Platte, etc.) and St. Charles potentially flip but ancestrally Democratic areas in the SE continue to trend Republican.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2020, 11:30:37 AM »

For MOScout
Changes with Oct 14-15

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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2020, 11:51:12 AM »

Calling it now, Biden wins Clay and Platte counties, is over 60% in St. Louis County, and gets close in Greene and St. Charles County. Maybe Cole too.
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kireev
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2020, 11:55:11 AM »

Remington final poll of MO in 2016 was Trump +13% https://themissouritimes.com/less-one-week-new-poll-shows-greitens-first-time/  Before it was Trump +11, and Trump +5 in early October.  So there was a trend of Trump gaining in MO. Not this time.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2020, 12:00:26 PM »

Likely 54-43 Trump
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2020, 12:21:21 PM »

Trump is leading by the same amount in Missouri as Biden is in Pennsylvania

The PA polling has truly been painful this cycle for the most part. It appears that a lot of pollsters underestimated Trump in 2016 and are underestimating Biden now in 2020
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2020, 12:38:06 PM »

MO is a 1 party state, D's are done in MO like IN and WVA
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2020, 01:23:38 PM »

New Poll: Missouri President by Remington Research Group on 2020-10-29

Summary: D: 45%, R: 50%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2020, 01:39:17 PM »

I just...don't understand where these Dems are coming from. Missouri should be matching Indiana, and it isn't. Where's the cause? Holcomb coattails or something?

I have to assume Greene County has held trends back and then jumped left all at once.
St. Louis and Kansas City suburbs are starting to catch up with the rest of the trends.  Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, and South Bend suburbs are too, but at a slower pace.  Plus, the Fort Wayne area is VERY Evangelical and traditional Catholic.  Many evangelical parachurches are headquartered there.  Concordia Seminary Fort Wayne, probably the most traditionalist Lutheran seminary in the world, is also in Fort Wayne.


Fort Wayne has been doing what Houston and Indianapolis have done: incorporating rural areas as soon as developers start showing an interest in turning farmland into housing tracts. Fort Wayne devours suburbs before they can form.  Thus Fort Wayne has a very suburban feel. Indianapolis is starting to have suburbs as Carmel, Zionsville, and Noblesville start to get spillover from across the Marion County line into Hamilton County. Fort Wayne is unlikely to have any significant suburbs until people start moving in large numbers across the Ohio state line.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2020, 02:55:12 PM »

I just...don't understand where these Dems are coming from. Missouri should be matching Indiana, and it isn't. Where's the cause? Holcomb coattails or something?

I have to assume Greene County has held trends back and then jumped left all at once.

Maybe it’s because there are not a lot of polls in either state.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2020, 03:32:26 PM »

When will pollsters stop undersampling the shy rural/small-town WWC McCaskill/Trump demographic, for God's sake? If even Claire lost by 6, there’s no way Biden comes as close to winning MO as she did.

I mean, I have ten Trump yard signs, told all my neighbors and friends about my Trump support, and am currently knocking on doors for his reelection campaign, but do people seriously expect me to answer truthfully to New York pollsters who’ve imposed a social stigma on us for decades because they despise our way of life and values?

LMAO, this is my favorite, bc in reality the ones who are actually incredibly judgmental towards other peoples way of life are people that live in rural areas. But it's okay when they sh**t on people from the cities, suburbs, other walks of life, etc.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2020, 03:51:22 PM »

When will pollsters stop undersampling the shy rural/small-town WWC McCaskill/Trump demographic, for God's sake? If even Claire lost by 6, there’s no way Biden comes as close to winning MO as she did.

I mean, I have ten Trump yard signs, told all my neighbors and friends about my Trump support, and am currently knocking on doors for his reelection campaign, but do people seriously expect me to answer truthfully to New York pollsters who’ve imposed a social stigma on us for decades because they despise our way of life and values?

LMAO, this is my favorite, bc in reality the ones who are actually incredibly judgmental towards other peoples way of life are people that live in rural areas. But it's okay when they sh**t on people from the cities, suburbs, other walks of life, etc.


Claire ran against Akin I'm 2012 and was the incumbent, Galloway is not as popular as McCaskill was
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