GA (WSB/Landmark) - Trump +1
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  GA (WSB/Landmark) - Trump +1
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Author Topic: GA (WSB/Landmark) - Trump +1  (Read 2699 times)
skbl17
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« on: October 30, 2020, 04:12:09 PM »
« edited: October 30, 2020, 04:39:29 PM by skbl17 »

Trump: 48% (-1%)
Biden: 47% (+2%)
Jorgensen: 2.5% (+2.5%)

Undecided: 2.5% (-1.5%)

Changes with Oct. 21 poll; 750 LV; MoE +/- 3.6%


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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2020, 04:13:23 PM »

Momentum
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2020, 04:13:58 PM »

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Ljube
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2020, 04:14:19 PM »

Bad poll for Trump and for Perdue.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2020, 04:15:08 PM »

If Biden wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he doesn't need to win any state in the Midwest barring Illinois. Would make for a quick election night.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2020, 04:16:08 PM »

Tilts! Do your thing with the trends and stuff. 
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Hammy
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2020, 04:18:09 PM »

Error for their final poll was D+1 in 2016 and R+1 in 2018.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2020, 04:19:51 PM »

Biden's visit here on Tuesday (and Kamala's upcoming visit on Sunday) are going to pay off.
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redjohn
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2020, 04:22:36 PM »

Previous poll was Biden 45, Trump 49. Trump's lost a point and Biden's gained two.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2020, 04:22:54 PM »



They don't weight by education, but ethnicity is more prominent here.
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Hammy
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2020, 04:26:01 PM »



They don't weight by education, but ethnicity is more prominent here.

Any chance given white demographics are different than the Rust Belt that this could lead to an error to the right of the result?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2020, 04:32:22 PM »



They don't weight by education, but ethnicity is more prominent here.

Any chance given white demographics are different than the Rust Belt that this could lead to an error to the right of the result?

Could also result in too many non-college educated voters in the sample. Really depends on who they get on the phone.
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Woody
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2020, 04:32:45 PM »

Lean R.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2020, 04:38:38 PM »

Error for their final poll was D+1 in 2016 and R+1 in 2018.

Woo, this really is a tossup.
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prag_prog
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2020, 04:55:04 PM »

If Biden wins in Georgia and loses in Florida, then the Florida Democratic party must be disbanded
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2020, 05:23:10 PM »

Well, Biden certainly is coming on strong here. If he gets good turnout he can prob pull Ossoff over with him. And man, facing Loeffler in a runoff is better than Collins.
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Buzz
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2020, 05:23:43 PM »

But muh Monmouth told me this was Likely D.  Anyways Close State remains super close.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2020, 05:27:02 PM »

If Biden wins in Georgia and loses in Florida, then the Florida Democratic party must be disbanded

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skbl17
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2020, 05:28:11 PM »

Here are the crosstabs by the way. Some tidbits:

- Biden's at 26% with white voters.
- Among those who already voted, the margin is Biden +6.4.
- Among those who have yet to vote, the margin is Trump +17.2.
- Male voters split 48-45-5 Trump; the female vote is essentially tied.
- Independent voters split 52-28-7 Biden, but 12% of them are undecided. I should note that there is a separate "Other party" category, I presume to refer to Johnson and Stein voters, which splits 42-27-27 Biden.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2020, 05:31:03 PM »

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DrScholl
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2020, 05:40:29 PM »

But muh Monmouth told me this was Likely D.  Anyways Close State remains super close.

This is a Republican firm and they had Trump up 4% last time.
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Buzz
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2020, 05:43:51 PM »

But muh Monmouth told me this was Likely D.  Anyways Close State remains super close.

This is a Republican firm and they had Trump up 4% last time.
itís not a republican firm lol.  They have been right on in GA the past few elections other that significantly under polling Perdue in 2014.
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User441
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2020, 05:46:13 PM »

Lean Atlanta Joe
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Hammy
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2020, 06:07:19 PM »

But muh Monmouth told me this was Likely D.  Anyways Close State remains super close.

This is a Republican firm and they had Trump up 4% last time.
itís not a republican firm lol.  They have been right on in GA the past few elections other that significantly under polling Perdue in 2014.

That was largely due to near-record low turnout if I remember correctly.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2020, 06:09:20 PM »

If Biden wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he doesn't need to win any state in the Midwest barring Illinois. Would make for a quick election night.

Depends on the speed of counting.

Georgia is slow, Florida is fast, NC is moderate.

IIRC the Midwest are generally on the slow side too.
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