GA (WSB/Landmark) - Trump +1

[skbl17]

Trump: 48% (-1%)
Biden: 47% (+2%)
Jorgensen: 2.5% (+2.5%)

Undecided: 2.5% (-1.5%)

Changes with Oct. 21 poll; 750 LV; MoE +/- 3.6%

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1322285064370139137

[Gass3268]

Momentum

[Bootes Void]

[Ljube]

Bad poll for Trump and for Perdue.

[BudgieForce]

If Biden wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he doesn't need to win any state in the Midwest barring Illinois. Would make for a quick election night.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Tilts! Do your thing with the trends and stuff. 

[Hammy]

Error for their final poll was D+1 in 2016 and R+1 in 2018.

[Podgy the Bear]

Biden's visit here on Tuesday (and Kamala's upcoming visit on Sunday) are going to pay off.

[redjohn]

Previous poll was Biden 45, Trump 49. Trump's lost a point and Biden's gained two.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1322287343638876160?s=20

They don't weight by education, but ethnicity is more prominent here.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1322287343638876160?s=20

They don't weight by education, but ethnicity is more prominent here.

Any chance given white demographics are different than the Rust Belt that this could lead to an error to the right of the result?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1322287343638876160?s=20

They don't weight by education, but ethnicity is more prominent here.

Any chance given white demographics are different than the Rust Belt that this could lead to an error to the right of the result?

Could also result in too many non-college educated voters in the sample. Really depends on who they get on the phone.

[Woody]

Lean R.

[Ferguson97]

Error for their final poll was D+1 in 2016 and R+1 in 2018.

Woo, this really is a tossup.

[prag_prog]

If Biden wins in Georgia and loses in Florida, then the Florida Democratic party must be disbanded

[psychprofessor]

Well, Biden certainly is coming on strong here. If he gets good turnout he can prob pull Ossoff over with him. And man, facing Loeffler in a runoff is better than Collins.

[Buzz]

But muh Monmouth told me this was Likely D.  Anyways Close State remains super close.

[Alben Barkley]

If Biden wins in Georgia and loses in Florida, then the Florida Democratic party must be disbanded

[skbl17]

Here are the crosstabs by the way. Some tidbits:

- Biden's at 26% with white voters.
- Among those who already voted, the margin is Biden +6.4.
- Among those who have yet to vote, the margin is Trump +17.2.
- Male voters split 48-45-5 Trump; the female vote is essentially tied.
- Independent voters split 52-28-7 Biden, but 12% of them are undecided. I should note that there is a separate "Other party" category, I presume to refer to Johnson and Stein voters, which splits 42-27-27 Biden.

[Adam Griffin]

[DrScholl]

But muh Monmouth told me this was Likely D.  Anyways Close State remains super close.

This is a Republican firm and they had Trump up 4% last time.

[Buzz]

But muh Monmouth told me this was Likely D.  Anyways Close State remains super close.

This is a Republican firm and they had Trump up 4% last time.

it’s not a republican firm lol.  They have been right on in GA the past few elections other that significantly under polling Perdue in 2014.

[User441]

Lean R.

Lean Atlanta Joe

[Hammy]

But muh Monmouth told me this was Likely D.  Anyways Close State remains super close.

This is a Republican firm and they had Trump up 4% last time.

it’s not a republican firm lol.  They have been right on in GA the past few elections other that significantly under polling Perdue in 2014.

That was largely due to near-record low turnout if I remember correctly.

[Mr. Smith]

If Biden wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he doesn't need to win any state in the Midwest barring Illinois. Would make for a quick election night.

Depends on the speed of counting.

Georgia is slow, Florida is fast, NC is moderate.

IIRC the Midwest are generally on the slow side too.