MI - Kiaer Research: Peters +13%
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Author Topic: MI - Kiaer Research: Peters +13%  (Read 3577 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 30, 2020, 07:12:49 AM »

https://kiaerresearch.com/oct-2020-poll

Oct 21-28
669 likely voters
MoE: 5.6%
Changes with May 31 - Jun 7

Peters 51% (+3)
James 38% (+6)
Other/third party 2% (-1)
Undecided 9% (-8)
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SN2903
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2020, 10:31:02 AM »

Total trash.
James will win this race by outperforming in Oakland County and with African American men.

James wins 49 47%
Trump wins MI 48.5 47.5%
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TML
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2020, 10:49:37 AM »

Total trash.
James will win this race by outperforming in Oakland County and with African American men.

James wins 49 47%
Trump wins MI 48.5 47.5%

Do you have a contingency plan for if/when your candidates lose?
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Trumporbust
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2020, 10:52:23 AM »

James and Trump will win Michigan. The polls were way off last time and they are way off this time too.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2020, 10:54:54 AM »

I doubt Peters wins by this much (and if he does, Republicans will be lucky to get 45 seats), but to predict James will win at this point is to just be delusional. There was a huge late surge for Republicans in 2016 in Michigan polls, and James gained quite a bit at the end of 2018 (though it obviously wasn't enough), but we're seeing the opposite this year. If James were to pull off an upset, we'd see him go from down 5-6% to down 1-3%, we wouldn't see him losing ground.
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SN2903
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2020, 02:18:21 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2020, 02:22:44 PM by SN2903 »

Total trash.
James will win this race by outperforming in Oakland County and with African American men.

James wins 49 47%
Trump wins MI 48.5 47.5%

You're anticipating just under 2016-levels of third-party voters this time around, SN?
No polls cannot accurately poll the Midwest anymore (mainstream ones). They are overestimating support of WWC voters for Biden and Biden will underperform with AA turnout and Trump will get better numbers with AA men than 2016. That's the hidden vote. I live the Midwest and I understand it well. I correctly predicted 2016. The Democratic party does not fit culturally in the Midwest anymore. It's doing better in areas like GA, NC, TX because it fits in culturally with the population in those states because the whites are younger. In the Midwest the white population is older and WWC voters (without college degrees) have been leaving the democratic party in droves for the last decade. They were even talking on MSNBC this morning how the polls missed WWC votes in 2018 in polls just like 2016 it just was 18 was a D year. 2020 is not a D year. It's mixed at best for the Dems. Has nothing to do with 3rd parties.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2020, 02:19:00 PM »

James and Trump will win Michigan. The polls were way off last time and they are way off this time too.
Yep . I explain my analysis in the post above.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2020, 02:20:27 PM »

I doubt Peters wins by this much (and if he does, Republicans will be lucky to get 45 seats), but to predict James will win at this point is to just be delusional. There was a huge late surge for Republicans in 2016 in Michigan polls, and James gained quite a bit at the end of 2018 (though it obviously wasn't enough), but we're seeing the opposite this year. If James were to pull off an upset, we'd see him go from down 5-6% to down 1-3%, we wouldn't see him losing ground.
The polls are WRONG dude. Biden has no energy. Even NBC and Politico are saying it! His turnout in Miami Dade is Putrid. Trump is drawing 15-20k people at rallies all over the country. You dems are so delusional. It's not even funny. It's not a 6-8 pt nationally it's a 2 to 4 pt race nationally in the PV.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2020, 02:33:43 PM »

James and Trump will win Michigan. The polls were way off last time and they are way off this time too.

SN, youíve been warned about sock puppets.

I know who SN alternate ego is, but that alternate was post moderated and won't be coming back. It you say the user out loud, he will just deny it. But, trust me, he is gone forever
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2020, 02:48:58 PM »

I doubt Peters wins by this much (and if he does, Republicans will be lucky to get 45 seats), but to predict James will win at this point is to just be delusional. There was a huge late surge for Republicans in 2016 in Michigan polls, and James gained quite a bit at the end of 2018 (though it obviously wasn't enough), but we're seeing the opposite this year. If James were to pull off an upset, we'd see him go from down 5-6% to down 1-3%, we wouldn't see him losing ground.
The polls are WRONG dude. Biden has no energy. Even NBC and Politico are saying it! His turnout in Miami Dade is Putrid. Trump is drawing 15-20k people at rallies all over the country. You dems are so delusional. It's not even funny. It's not a 6-8 pt nationally it's a 2 to 4 pt race nationally in the PV.

Whatever you say, dude.
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SN2903
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2020, 03:23:48 PM »

James and Trump will win Michigan. The polls were way off last time and they are way off this time too.

SN, youíve been warned about sock puppets.

I know who SN alternate ego is, but that alternate was post moderated and won't be coming back. It you say the user out loud, he will just deny it. But, trust me, he is gone forever
I don't have any sock accounts.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2020, 04:50:10 PM »

I doubt Peters wins by this much (and if he does, Republicans will be lucky to get 45 seats), but to predict James will win at this point is to just be delusional. There was a huge late surge for Republicans in 2016 in Michigan polls, and James gained quite a bit at the end of 2018 (though it obviously wasn't enough), but we're seeing the opposite this year. If James were to pull off an upset, we'd see him go from down 5-6% to down 1-3%, we wouldn't see him losing ground.
The polls are WRONG dude. Biden has no energy. Even NBC and Politico are saying it! His turnout in Miami Dade is Putrid. Trump is drawing 15-20k people at rallies all over the country. You dems are so delusional. It's not even funny. It's not a 6-8 pt nationally it's a 2 to 4 pt race nationally in the PV.

Delusion.

What will be your reaction if the polls are right and Biden does win MI/PA/WI by 6-7 points and the popular vote by 10+ points?
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SN2903
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2020, 05:51:15 PM »

I doubt Peters wins by this much (and if he does, Republicans will be lucky to get 45 seats), but to predict James will win at this point is to just be delusional. There was a huge late surge for Republicans in 2016 in Michigan polls, and James gained quite a bit at the end of 2018 (though it obviously wasn't enough), but we're seeing the opposite this year. If James were to pull off an upset, we'd see him go from down 5-6% to down 1-3%, we wouldn't see him losing ground.
The polls are WRONG dude. Biden has no energy. Even NBC and Politico are saying it! His turnout in Miami Dade is Putrid. Trump is drawing 15-20k people at rallies all over the country. You dems are so delusional. It's not even funny. It's not a 6-8 pt nationally it's a 2 to 4 pt race nationally in the PV.

Delusion.

What will be your reaction if the polls are right and Biden does win MI/PA/WI by 6-7 points and the popular vote by 10+ points?
No chance. 0% chance
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2020, 06:48:39 PM »

James and Trump will win Michigan. The polls were way off last time and they are way off this time too.

Whatever makes you feel better...
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User441
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2020, 06:50:42 PM »

I doubt Peters wins by this much (and if he does, Republicans will be lucky to get 45 seats), but to predict James will win at this point is to just be delusional. There was a huge late surge for Republicans in 2016 in Michigan polls, and James gained quite a bit at the end of 2018 (though it obviously wasn't enough), but we're seeing the opposite this year. If James were to pull off an upset, we'd see him go from down 5-6% to down 1-3%, we wouldn't see him losing ground.
The polls are WRONG dude. Biden has no energy. Even NBC and Politico are saying it! His turnout in Miami Dade is Putrid. Trump is drawing 15-20k people at rallies all over the country. You dems are so delusional. It's not even funny. It's not a 6-8 pt nationally it's a 2 to 4 pt race nationally in the PV.

Delusion.

What will be your reaction if the polls are right and Biden does win MI/PA/WI by 6-7 points and the popular vote by 10+ points?
No chance. 0% chance
You're going to be a blithering wreck in a couple o' days. I can't wait.
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Politics Fan
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2020, 09:23:40 PM »

I doubt Peters wins by this much (and if he does, Republicans will be lucky to get 45 seats), but to predict James will win at this point is to just be delusional. There was a huge late surge for Republicans in 2016 in Michigan polls, and James gained quite a bit at the end of 2018 (though it obviously wasn't enough), but we're seeing the opposite this year. If James were to pull off an upset, we'd see him go from down 5-6% to down 1-3%, we wouldn't see him losing ground.
The polls are WRONG dude. Biden has no energy. Even NBC and Politico are saying it! His turnout in Miami Dade is Putrid. Trump is drawing 15-20k people at rallies all over the country. You dems are so delusional. It's not even funny. It's not a 6-8 pt nationally it's a 2 to 4 pt race nationally in the PV.
Maybe thatís cause one candidate is using common sense when campaigning in a pandemic.
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Yoda
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2020, 05:09:42 AM »

The denial and wishful thinking in this thread is......wow. Just....wow. This is prime "bump" material come Nov. 4th.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2020, 05:27:18 AM »

Total trash.
James will win this race by outperforming in Oakland County and with African American men.

James wins 49 47%
Trump wins MI 48.5 47.5%

You're anticipating just under 2016-levels of third-party voters this time around, SN?
No polls cannot accurately poll the Midwest anymore (mainstream ones). They are overestimating support of WWC voters for Biden and Biden will underperform with AA turnout and Trump will get better numbers with AA men than 2016. That's the hidden vote. I live the Midwest and I understand it well. I correctly predicted 2016. The Democratic party does not fit culturally in the Midwest anymore. It's doing better in areas like GA, NC, TX because it fits in culturally with the population in those states because the whites are younger. In the Midwest the white population is older and WWC voters (without college degrees) have been leaving the democratic party in droves for the last decade. They were even talking on MSNBC this morning how the polls missed WWC votes in 2018 in polls just like 2016 it just was 18 was a D year. 2020 is not a D year. It's mixed at best for the Dems. Has nothing to do with 3rd parties.

There is nothing that suggest your take is remotely true other than "muh 2016". Polls in Michigan were spot on in 2018, as they were almost across the country. In Florida, Republicans and Iowa, Republicans were underestimated by a fraction, while Democrats were underestimated in Nevada, as well as Texas in 2016. If we adjust the exact same polling errors from 2016 to 2020, Joe Biden would win Texas. Do I think that will happen? Maybe, but lean no. Even if you only look at polling errors from 2016, where Trump benefited from, Joe Biden still wins comfortably. And that ignores the fact pollsters improved their modeling, especially by weighing education of white voters.

Let's also dispel the myth polling errors, that always happen to a degree, solely benefit Republicans. It's very possible they underestimate Joe Biden. That being said, I don't think Peters will win by 13%, but there is nothing that suggests he is on track to oust Peters other than you want it to happen and "muh 2016".

Crowd sizes don't mean anything, my friend. If that was true, Bernie Sanders would be the one you're running against. But you run against Joe Biden, who won primaries in states he didn't even set a foot in (see Maine, Washington state and Minnesota). Almost all people showing up at Trump rallies vote for him anyway. It's his hardcore base (that ignores health guidelines, other than Team Joe), which he traded for moderate suburbanites and women in particular. And that's why Trump is headed for a major defeat. And that's a good thing. Because Joe Biden will also work to represent you and not just his base. That's what leaders do.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2020, 01:50:50 PM »

New Poll: Michigan Senator by Other Source on 2020-10-28

Summary: D: 51%, R: 38%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Biden his time
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« Reply #19 on: June 21, 2021, 05:51:18 PM »

Peters won by 1.7%
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