IA-Quinnipiac: Ernst +2

[S019]

Yikes. Yeah this race is gone.

Literally Montana might decide the Senate. Aka it’s not happening

Georgia exists

[Gracile]

I'm going to wait until Selzer's final poll gets released to make any pronouncements about this race, but I've never bought that Greenfield was going to massively outperform Biden/win by more than a modest few points. Also, I never thought this race would decide Senate control so I don't know why people are suddenly acting like the chamber is out of play.

[SnowLabrador]

I will call this Lean R now. Quinnipiac is a D-leaning pollster, and they can't find Greenfield leading.

[UncleSam]

Dems can get the senate with CO + AZ + ME + NC + VP - AL. This race won’t decide the senate most likely.

Still, this race is big in terms of deciding whether Dems can get a ‘functional majority’. I think Ernst is favored to win by a similar margin to Reynolds 2018 but it’s gonna be close.

If Dems do fail to take the senate it will be on Cunningham, however, not Greenfield.

[WD]

Yikes. Yeah this race is gone.

Literally Montana might decide the Senate. Aka it’s not happening

Georgia exists

This is Millennial Moderate you’re talking to. He thinks GA is “fools gold”.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Can't wait for this thread to get upwards of five pages while the Greenfield +6 poll from yesterday goes ignored.

[wbrocks67]

Can't wait for this thread to get upwards of five pages while the Greenfield +6 poll from yesterday goes ignored.

Was just gonna say this. Love that Greenfield has led in over 75% of the polls of this race, and other than Emerson, the only ones Ernst has led have been by 1. Meanwhile this poll has Greenfield and Ernst tied at 18-34 year olds. Sure jan.

Glad we're just pretending like the +6 Greenfield poll doesn't exist though!

[Young Conservative]

Just an FYI, polls underestimated Republicans in Iowa by 4 on average in 2016 and 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just an FYI, polls underestimated Republicans in Iowa by 4 on average in 2016 and 2018.

You guys are losing AZ, CO, ME, NC

GA, KS, MT and SC looks lost, I wouldn't be bragging about R chances in IA if I were you

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Can't wait for this thread to get upwards of five pages while the Greenfield +6 poll from yesterday goes ignored.

The probable reason to why less credence has been given to that +6 poll.. is because the same pollster had Greenfield up by 12 points in late September. lol.

[ctrepublican512]

Still Tilt D, closer to Lean. The reactions to one poll damage a lot of people's credibility on here...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yikes. Yeah this race is gone.

Literally Montana might decide the Senate. Aka it’s not happening

This trolling is so annoying.

This is what he does, all the time blast D's whom are oosing

[wbrocks67]

Just an FYI, polls underestimated Republicans in Iowa by 4 on average in 2016 and 2018.

Does not necessarily mean the same thing will happen this year

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't gonna sweep every race but Warnock, Bullock, Ossoff, Bollier, and Harrison looks firmer than TX, IA and D's are ahead in QU in OH than in IA and TX anyways, IA is a whiter state anyways. Rs have nothing to brag about if Cornyn and Ernst survives

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Just an FYI, polls underestimated Republicans in Iowa by 4 on average in 2016 and 2018.

Polls underestimated Ernst in 2014, as well..

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html

[KaiserDave]

Tilt R

I don’t see this going our way fellas

[President Johnson]

Meh, maybe Georgia are better pickup opportunities to get Democrats beyond a bare 50-50. But I'd take everything that strips Mitch the title of Majority Leader and lets Chuck Schumer run the show. That being said, the race was always a pure tossup and others have Greenfield slightly ahead. Let's not freak out over one poll with a marginal difference.

[One Term Floridian]

Oofers. I feel like everyday the rating of this race switches between Tilt D and Tilt R.

IA is a swinger state u see

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yikes. Yeah this race is gone.

Literally Montana might decide the Senate. Aka it’s not happening

A race where a challenger leads the incumbent in the polling average despite one poll showing them trailing is far from over, not to mention challengers typically outperform polling.

[One Term Floridian]

Yikes. Yeah this race is gone.

Literally Montana might decide the Senate. Aka it’s not happening

A race where a challenger leads the incumbent in the polling average despite one poll showing them trailing is far from over, not to mention challengers typically outperform polling.

Exactly. I’m keeping IA Sen as Lean D and IA Pres Tilt D unless I see more of a polling shift here.

[DrScholl]

Just an FYI, polls underestimated Republicans in Iowa by 4 on average in 2016 and 2018.

Polls underestimated Ernst in 2014, as well..

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html

First off she was not an incumbent then and second she had varying leads across various polls not scattered ones. If anything she is in Braley's position.

[VAR]

DrScholl literally expected Braley to win in 2014...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Just an FYI, polls underestimated Republicans in Iowa by 4 on average in 2016 and 2018.

Polls underestimated Ernst in 2014, as well..

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html

First off she was not an incumbent then and second she had varying leads across various polls not scattered ones. If anything she is in Braley's position.

That doesn't detract from the fact that republicans have been underestimated in Iowa polling for the 3 distinct election cycles..

Of course, that may change this year.

[GALeftist]

Quinnipiac bad. You can find the recommend button down and to your left.

[DrScholl]

DrScholl literally expected Braley to win in 2014...

If you registered here in 2020 how would you know that? Seems a little suspicious that a "new poster" would know what I supposedly posted years ago. You want to explain yourself?