IA-Quinnipiac: Ernst +2
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  IA-Quinnipiac: Ernst +2
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Author Topic: IA-Quinnipiac: Ernst +2  (Read 3295 times)
Panda Express
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« on: October 29, 2020, 01:03:21 PM »

Ernst: 48%
Greenfield: 46%

source
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2020, 01:04:10 PM »

Oofers. I feel like everyday the rating of this race switches between Tilt D and Tilt R.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2020, 01:04:14 PM »

yea probably not happening.
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VAR
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2020, 01:04:44 PM »

Oh thank you Quinnipiac!  Purple heart
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2020, 01:08:04 PM »

I want to see what Selzer has to say, but I'm not feeling great about this race. Greenfield could still win, but I probably won't believe it unless Selzer has her up by 4-5%, though polls could be more accurate in IA this year.
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The Address That Must Not be Named
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2020, 01:09:10 PM »

Selzer or bust!
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MRS DONNA SHALALA
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2020, 01:09:40 PM »

Greenfield/Biden running neck-and-neck with Ernst/Trump in the 18-34 age bracket? I think not.
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WD
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2020, 01:10:48 PM »

More likely to flip than NC imo imo
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new_patomic
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2020, 01:11:17 PM »

Pure tossup.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2020, 01:11:48 PM »



They were good challengers, but James and Greenfield were never in remotely competitive races against the Senate motorcycle caucus. No matter the national environment, they just couldn't do this where the rubber met the road.
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S019
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2020, 01:13:13 PM »

Not surprised, should have been an omen when Greenfield was struggling to break 50%, given how undecideds here broke in 2014, 2016, and 2018.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2020, 01:13:26 PM »

Everyone is so desperate for this bad wig wearing neurotic idiot to win, but it's not going to happen. Ernst is losing on a Election Night and I suggest that you all just accept it before you end up very depressed on Election Night.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2020, 01:14:49 PM »

Oofers. I feel like everyday the rating of this race switches between Tilt D and Tilt R.

That would mean its a toss-up.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2020, 01:15:24 PM »

Not surprised, should have been an omen when Greenfield was struggling to break 50%, given how undecideds here broke in 2014, 2016, and 2018.
I don't know what polls you are looking at, but for the most part Greenfield has performed better in polling overall than any Democrats did in the last few cycles.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2020, 01:16:09 PM »

October 23-27
1225 likely voters
MoE: 2.8%
Changes with October 1-5

Ernst 48% (n/c)
Greenfield 46% (-4)
Someone else 1% (n/c)
Don't know/no answer 4% (n/c)
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S019
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2020, 01:16:31 PM »

Everyone is so desperate for this bad wig wearing neurotic idiot to win, but it's not going to happen. Ernst is losing on a Election Night and I suggest that you all just accept it before you end up very depressed on Election Night.

No Democrat wants her to win, we just don't expect any better from a state like Iowa, and I'd be more than happy to be wrong and be surprised, but I'm not setting myself up for disappointment.

Not surprised, should have been an omen when Greenfield was struggling to break 50%, given how undecideds here broke in 2014, 2016, and 2018.
I don't know what polls you are looking at, but for the most part Greenfield has performed better in polling overall than any Democrats did in the last few cycles.

Hubbell was also doing well in polls and Braley and Ernst were basically tied in 2014, I don't put much faith into IA polling to begin with, given what we've seen in the past.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2020, 01:19:11 PM »

Everyone is so desperate for this bad wig wearing neurotic idiot to win, but it's not going to happen. Ernst is losing on a Election Night and I suggest that you all just accept it before you end up very depressed on Election Night.

No Democrat wants her to win, we just don't expect any better from a state like Iowa, and I'd be more than happy to be wrong and be surprised, but I'm not setting myself up for disappointment.

Not surprised, should have been an omen when Greenfield was struggling to break 50%, given how undecideds here broke in 2014, 2016, and 2018.
I don't know what polls you are looking at, but for the most part Greenfield has performed better in polling overall than any Democrats did in the last few cycles.

Hubbell was also doing well in polls and Braley and Ernst were basically tied in 2014, I don't put much faith into IA polling to begin with, given what we've seen in the past.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html#polls

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ia/iowa_governor_reynolds_vs_hubbell-6477.html#polls

The averages from those years suggest different.
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S019
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2020, 01:21:09 PM »

Everyone is so desperate for this bad wig wearing neurotic idiot to win, but it's not going to happen. Ernst is losing on a Election Night and I suggest that you all just accept it before you end up very depressed on Election Night.

No Democrat wants her to win, we just don't expect any better from a state like Iowa, and I'd be more than happy to be wrong and be surprised, but I'm not setting myself up for disappointment.

Not surprised, should have been an omen when Greenfield was struggling to break 50%, given how undecideds here broke in 2014, 2016, and 2018.
I don't know what polls you are looking at, but for the most part Greenfield has performed better in polling overall than any Democrats did in the last few cycles.

Hubbell was also doing well in polls and Braley and Ernst were basically tied in 2014, I don't put much faith into IA polling to begin with, given what we've seen in the past.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html#polls

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ia/iowa_governor_reynolds_vs_hubbell-6477.html#polls

The averages from those years suggest different.

Undecideds broke almost entirely for both Reynolds and Ernst, I think that will happen again.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2020, 01:23:34 PM »

Yikes. Yeah this race is gone.

Literally Montana might decide the Senate. Aka itís not happening
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DrScholl
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2020, 01:24:18 PM »

Everyone is so desperate for this bad wig wearing neurotic idiot to win, but it's not going to happen. Ernst is losing on a Election Night and I suggest that you all just accept it before you end up very depressed on Election Night.

No Democrat wants her to win, we just don't expect any better from a state like Iowa, and I'd be more than happy to be wrong and be surprised, but I'm not setting myself up for disappointment.

Not surprised, should have been an omen when Greenfield was struggling to break 50%, given how undecideds here broke in 2014, 2016, and 2018.
I don't know what polls you are looking at, but for the most part Greenfield has performed better in polling overall than any Democrats did in the last few cycles.

Hubbell was also doing well in polls and Braley and Ernst were basically tied in 2014, I don't put much faith into IA polling to begin with, given what we've seen in the past.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html#polls

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ia/iowa_governor_reynolds_vs_hubbell-6477.html#polls

The averages from those years suggest different.

Undecideds broke almost entirely for both Reynolds and Ernst, I think that will happen again.

You hope that will happen again. The differences now are that Ernst is an incumbent with an actual record and that governors races can be completely different than federal ones in a lot of places. By Republican logic undecideds break for the challenger, so you are violating your own rules.
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S019
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2020, 01:25:25 PM »

Everyone is so desperate for this bad wig wearing neurotic idiot to win, but it's not going to happen. Ernst is losing on a Election Night and I suggest that you all just accept it before you end up very depressed on Election Night.

No Democrat wants her to win, we just don't expect any better from a state like Iowa, and I'd be more than happy to be wrong and be surprised, but I'm not setting myself up for disappointment.

Not surprised, should have been an omen when Greenfield was struggling to break 50%, given how undecideds here broke in 2014, 2016, and 2018.
I don't know what polls you are looking at, but for the most part Greenfield has performed better in polling overall than any Democrats did in the last few cycles.

Hubbell was also doing well in polls and Braley and Ernst were basically tied in 2014, I don't put much faith into IA polling to begin with, given what we've seen in the past.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html#polls

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ia/iowa_governor_reynolds_vs_hubbell-6477.html#polls

The averages from those years suggest different.

Undecideds broke almost entirely for both Reynolds and Ernst, I think that will happen again.

You hope that will happen again. The differences now are that Ernst is an incumbent with an actual record and that governors races can be completely different than federal ones in a lot of places. By Republican logic undecideds break for the challenger, so you are violating your own rules.

Have you read anything I post, I'm not a Republican, this avatar is a meme to mock hacks like Woodbury who think CA-25 is a Tossup
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Xing
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2020, 01:25:30 PM »

Everyone is so desperate for this bad wig wearing neurotic idiot to win, but it's not going to happen. Ernst is losing on a Election Night and I suggest that you all just accept it before you end up very depressed on Election Night.

I would love to see Ernst lose, and I hope you're right, but given how much IA has burned us over the past few cycles, you have to understand why many of us aren't optimistic about this race.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2020, 01:25:35 PM »

Yikes. Yeah this race is gone.

Literally Montana might decide the Senate. Aka itís not happening

This trolling is so annoying.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2020, 01:26:56 PM »

No
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WD
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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2020, 01:28:10 PM »

Yikes. Yeah this race is gone.

Literally Montana might decide the Senate. Aka itís not happening

We already have AZ, CO, ME, NC leaning towards us. The Senate is flipping
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