NYT/Siena - NC: Biden+3

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Biden 48% (+2)
Trump 45% (+3)

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321859558948638722

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On our previous episode (thank you Limo and Tilts):

October 9-13
627 LV

Biden 46%
Trump 42%

*Sorry about that, guys!

[Person Man]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[LimoLiberal]

NYT/Siena had this 46-42 Biden in early October so this represents tightening.

[forza nocta]

W I D E N I N G

Edit: Mixed up their last poll, which was in early October not September

So basically, N O  C H A N G E

[Alben Barkley]

NYT/Siena had this 46-42 Biden in early October so this represents tightening.

1 point difference in margin but Biden 2 points closer to 50? Wouldn’t really call that “tightening,” but then again I’m not a concern troll like you.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

There was an October 9-13 NYT/Siena poll here, too. Changes with that are listed below:

October 23-27
1034 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%

Biden 48% (+2)
Trump 45% (+3)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Someone else 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Not voting for president 0% (but some voters) (n/c from 0%)
Don't know/refused 4% (-4)

[EJ24]

R +6 sample too.

[LimoLiberal]

NYT/Siena had this 46-42 Biden in early October so this represents tightening.

1 point difference in margin but Biden 2 points closer to 50? Wouldn’t really call that “tightening,” but then again I’m not a concern troll like you.

It's probably a better poll for Biden on balance, given proximity to the election and his higher vote share, but the margin is objectively tighter than it was two weeks ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A 1% shift in margin is noise.

[ExSky]

NYT/Siena had this 46-42 Biden in early October so this represents tightening.

1 point difference in margin but Biden 2 points closer to 50? Wouldn’t really call that “tightening,” but then again I’m not a concern troll like you.

It's probably a better poll for Biden on balance, given proximity to the election and his higher vote share, but the margin is objectively tighter than it was two weeks ago.

How the hell, with a straight face, can you say that but then go outright doomer in polls showing Georgia up 5.

[wbrocks67]

Trump approval: 46/50 (-4)

Trump fav: 47/50 (-3)
Biden fav: 50/47 (+3)

Cunningham fav: 43/43 (=)
Tillis fav: 43/46 (-3)

[Ferguson97]

Lean D.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Lean D.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Ugh, I am starting to think that a double digits win feels like a likely outcome right now.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ugh, I am starting to think that a double digits win feels like a likely outcome right now.

It's definitely not a good sign for Trump that, even with his improvement and consolidation of voters in the late race, Biden also appeared to absorb some voters as well; both peeled off some of the 8% undecideds (now down to 4%) from the previous poll.  

And after all that, Trump can only manage 45%. 


 

[Pollster]

This is likely what their 46/42 poll would have looked like if they pushed undecideds.

[Gracile]

NYT/Siena had this 46-42 Biden in early October so this represents tightening.

No, it isn't. That's within the margin of error from their last poll, meaning the race has virtually stayed the same.

[Gracile]

FWIW Cohn seems to think this sample is a touch conservative-leaning:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321860883312713728

[prag_prog]

Nate provides lot of transperancy regarding their polling methodology, appreciate that a lot.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Consistent with late deciders shaking out about evenly this year rather than breaking for the incumbent.

[Pericles]

Ugh, I am starting to think that a double digits win feels like a likely outcome right now.