Chicago, IL - Wirepoints/Real Clear Opinion Research: Biden +62

[VAR]

Sept. 26-Oct. 4, 895 RV, MoE: 3.3%

Biden 75%
Trump 13%
Jorgensen 1%
Hawkins 1%
Don’t know/undecided 10%

Trump approval: 25/72 (-47)
Pritzker approval: 63/31 (+32)
Lightfoot approval: 61/33 (+28)

https://wirepoints.org/new-poll-details-chicagoans-opinions-about-policing-race-and-mayor-lightfoots-performance-wirepoints-special-report/

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Was Clinton 83.7 - Trump 12.5 in 2016 -- Clinton +71.2

(Source: chicagomag.com)

[BaldEagle1991]

Chicago is probably more bluer than San Fran.

[Skill and Chance]

Was Clinton 83.7 - Trump 12.5 in 2016 -- Clinton +71.2

(Source: chicagomag.com)

So cities are unpacking a little for Dems vs. 2016. Good for Biden.

[Roll Roons]

Chicago is probably more bluer than San Fran.

Definitely not. Though it does look like Democrats are probably maxed out, as I'd expect them to be in most big Northern cities.

[Rand]

Like many of you, I also woke up this morning to crippling concerns about whether Joe Biden could win the city of Chicago. Then this poll came along and my concerns were quickly washed away.

Thank you Wirepoints.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Like many of you, I also woke up this morning to crippling concerns about whether Joe Biden could win the city of Chicago. Then this poll came along and my concerns were quickly washed away.

Thank you Wirepoints.

Eh, I don't know. The polls can be off. I'm still a bit, uhh, concerned... that Biden could lose Chicago. Also, we don't have polls of New York City or Chicago, and there is plenty of reason to be... concerned... that either of those or both could easily swing massively to Trump thanks to his tremendous gains with minority voters, possibly even putting California and New York's electoral votes into contention. Trump changed the map in 2016 and it is... uhh... possible... that he could do so again in an even more unexpected way. Yeah.

[Bootes Void]

Does Trump seriously have a 25% approval rating in Chicago? LOL

[lfromnj]

The weirder part is Trump is below his approvals by 12%
The poll is probably too R friendly but still.

[Gracile]

Chicago is probably more bluer than San Fran.

Definitely not. Though it does look like Democrats are probably maxed out, as I'd expect them to be in most big Northern cities.

It depends on what part of the city. I can see Biden improving a bit in places that had relatively high Jill Stein vote shares (think Rogers Park/Edgewater where Stein broke 3-4% in several precincts that swung Republican/had a smaller Democratic swing from 2012). Democrats have also been helped out slightly by population growth in several North Side neighborhoods due to liberal transplants - which has helped them to offset losses in other parts of the city, namely African-American wards which saw big drops in turnout because of population loss and Barack Obama's 2012 campaign setting a high watermark/vote share with black turnout generally.

Overall, though, I agree that Chicago's 2020 result will not differ much from 2016 (and I think it will trend R, though "trending R" is less meaningful for cities that are stagnantly at 80%+ D).