ME-SurveyUSA: Gideon +1/+2
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  ME-SurveyUSA: Gideon +1/+2
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Author Topic: ME-SurveyUSA: Gideon +1/+2  (Read 2319 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: October 29, 2020, 07:25:06 AM »

For FairVote
October 23-27
1007 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%

First Round: Gideon +1%
Gideon 46%
Collins 45%
Savage 4%
Linn 1%
Undecided 4%

With RCV (all Savage/Linn second preferences): Gideon +2% pre-rounding
Gideon 48%
Collins 47%
No second/3rd preference 1%
Undecided 4%
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #26 on: October 29, 2020, 07:31:50 AM »

Nice, a new race for us to freak out about! First it was MN-SEN then NC-SEN, then MI-SEN, back to NC-SEN for a bit and now this.
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compucomp
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« Reply #27 on: October 29, 2020, 07:41:07 AM »

Yup. Sheís going to hold on isnít she?

God Damn It. As I told you all and got laughed at for -
I knew the Senate wasnít going to happen - but Ill admit I didnít think it would be Maine to screw it up

It does make sense if you think about it. Maine is super wwc and the second district is a perfect fit both for Trump and for the direction I think the GOP is heading.

Hot take - Both Georgia seats are as or more likely to flip than Maine.

This take makes no sense given the presidential numbers in this poll. If Collins wins it's because there are still some Democrats who think she's reasonable.

Anyway, Tilt D.

Yeah, Maine voters lean Democratic but they're independent and a bit quirky, and they will split their tickets. A plausible explanation could be that Maine voters now expect Biden to win and want Collins to be a "reasonable Republican" check on him, and she did just vote against ACB.

As for the polls, did any poll in 2016 show Ron Johnson ahead of Russ Feingold? I know the dynamics of the race were very different but that's an example.
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Figueira
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« Reply #28 on: October 29, 2020, 08:26:40 AM »

Yup. Sheís going to hold on isnít she?

God Damn It. As I told you all and got laughed at for -
I knew the Senate wasnít going to happen - but Ill admit I didnít think it would be Maine to screw it up

It does make sense if you think about it. Maine is super wwc and the second district is a perfect fit both for Trump and for the direction I think the GOP is heading.

Hot take - Both Georgia seats are as or more likely to flip than Maine.

This take makes no sense given the presidential numbers in this poll. If Collins wins it's because there are still some Democrats who think she's reasonable.

Anyway, Tilt D.

Yeah, Maine voters lean Democratic but they're independent and a bit quirky, and they will split their tickets. A plausible explanation could be that Maine voters now expect Biden to win and want Collins to be a "reasonable Republican" check on him, and she did just vote against ACB.

As for the polls, did any poll in 2016 show Ron Johnson ahead of Russ Feingold? I know the dynamics of the race were very different but that's an example.


There were some SurveyMonkey polls showing Johnson ahead or tied, and one Loras College poll showing him ahead.
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Woody
SirWoodbury
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« Reply #29 on: October 29, 2020, 08:38:48 AM »

RCV will help Gideon and partisanship will win out in this race in the end. Tilt D.
If dems steal this race with RCV I swear to god.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #30 on: October 29, 2020, 09:01:19 AM »

RCV will help Gideon and partisanship will win out in this race in the end. Tilt D.
If dems steal this race with RCV I swear to god.

SirWoodbury's world: where RCV is "stealing" but throwing out mail-in ballots isn't.
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NYDem
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« Reply #31 on: October 29, 2020, 09:27:08 AM »

RCV will help Gideon and partisanship will win out in this race in the end. Tilt D.
If dems steal this race with RCV I swear to god.

You swear to god what? Please be specific.
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Charlotca
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« Reply #32 on: October 29, 2020, 10:02:54 AM »

RCV will help Gideon and partisanship will win out in this race in the end. Tilt D.
If dems steal this race with RCV I swear to god.

You swear to god what? Please be specific.

Presumably he'll try to kidnap the governor of Michigan again.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #33 on: October 29, 2020, 10:07:27 AM »

Yup. Sheís going to hold on isnít she?

God Damn It. As I told you all and got laughed at for -
I knew the Senate wasnít going to happen - but Ill admit I didnít think it would be Maine to screw it up

It does make sense if you think about it. Maine is super wwc and the second district is a perfect fit both for Trump and for the direction I think the GOP is heading.

Hot take - Both Georgia seats are as or more likely to flip than Maine.

This take makes no sense given the presidential numbers in this poll. If Collins wins it's because there are still some Democrats who think she's reasonable.

Anyway, Tilt D.

Yeah, Maine voters lean Democratic but they're independent and a bit quirky, and they will split their tickets. A plausible explanation could be that Maine voters now expect Biden to win and want Collins to be a "reasonable Republican" check on him, and she did just vote against ACB.

As for the polls, did any poll in 2016 show Ron Johnson ahead of Russ Feingold? I know the dynamics of the race were very different but that's an example.


Lol Collins voted against ACB because Mitch didnít need her vote and allowed her to vote against confirmation.  Anyone that doesnít see that is an idiot.
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Xing
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« Reply #34 on: October 29, 2020, 10:11:49 AM »

Gideon is still favored, but this race isn't over, nor was it ever over. One thing that would be very interesting to see would be if Gideon finished slightly behind Collins in the first round, only to pull ahead due to RCV, and that determined control of the Senate. Sweet dreams, everyone.
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Figueira
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« Reply #35 on: October 29, 2020, 10:13:12 AM »

RCV will help Gideon and partisanship will win out in this race in the end. Tilt D.
If dems steal this race with RCV I swear to god.

Even if you don't like RCV, people are voting under the assumption that it's RCV. If there wasn't RCV, less people would vote third party. The first round totals don't necessarily reflect what the race would look like without RCV.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #36 on: October 29, 2020, 10:14:00 AM »

Yup. Sheís going to hold on isnít she?

God Damn It. As I told you all and got laughed at for -
I knew the Senate wasnít going to happen - but Ill admit I didnít think it would be Maine to screw it up

You seriously need to take a Xanax.
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compucomp
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« Reply #37 on: October 29, 2020, 10:21:09 AM »

Yup. Sheís going to hold on isnít she?

God Damn It. As I told you all and got laughed at for -
I knew the Senate wasnít going to happen - but Ill admit I didnít think it would be Maine to screw it up

It does make sense if you think about it. Maine is super wwc and the second district is a perfect fit both for Trump and for the direction I think the GOP is heading.

Hot take - Both Georgia seats are as or more likely to flip than Maine.

This take makes no sense given the presidential numbers in this poll. If Collins wins it's because there are still some Democrats who think she's reasonable.

Anyway, Tilt D.

Yeah, Maine voters lean Democratic but they're independent and a bit quirky, and they will split their tickets. A plausible explanation could be that Maine voters now expect Biden to win and want Collins to be a "reasonable Republican" check on him, and she did just vote against ACB.

As for the polls, did any poll in 2016 show Ron Johnson ahead of Russ Feingold? I know the dynamics of the race were very different but that's an example.


Lol Collins voted against ACB because Mitch didnít need her vote and allowed her to vote against confirmation.  Anyone that doesnít see that is an idiot.

I disagree, a priori it's only clear to political junkies. Gideon needs to emphasize this point that her mere presence enabled Kavanaugh (who she actually voted for) and ACB to be on the court.
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WD
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« Reply #38 on: October 29, 2020, 10:22:12 AM »

Yup. Sheís going to hold on isnít she?

God Damn It. As I told you all and got laughed at for -
I knew the Senate wasnít going to happen - but Ill admit I didnít think it would be Maine to screw it up

Gideon is leading the poll. Calm down.
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ηєω Éяσηтιєя
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« Reply #39 on: October 29, 2020, 11:28:43 AM »

It would really suck if Collins won re-election. However, I believe that Gideon will pull it out - most likely due to Biden's coattails and partisanship.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #40 on: October 29, 2020, 08:08:47 PM »

New Poll: Maine Senator by Survey USA on 2020-10-27

Summary: D: 46%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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