MI HD-73, HD-96 - Target Insyght/MIRS News: Peters +7, Scholten +6; Peters +2, Kildee +3
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  MI HD-73, HD-96 - Target Insyght/MIRS News: Peters +7, Scholten +6; Peters +2, Kildee +3
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Author Topic: MI HD-73, HD-96 - Target Insyght/MIRS News: Peters +7, Scholten +6; Peters +2, Kildee +3  (Read 357 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 28, 2020, 11:55:55 PM »
« edited: October 29, 2020, 12:00:24 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

https://mirsnews.podbean.com/e/mirs-monday-oct-26-2020/

October 20-22
300 voters - apparently per district
MoE: 5.7% - for (each?) 300 sample

HD-73
Biden 52-46

Peters 56%
James 39%

Scholten (D) 50%
Meijer (R) 44%

HD-96
Trump 51-45

Peters 49%
James 47%

Kildee (D) 50%
Kelly (R) 47%

The polling here probably isn't worth much but I'll laugh if Peters consistently outperforms Biden (in addition to state rep Brian Elder) by this much.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2020, 01:54:54 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2020, 03:47:14 AM by Stuart98 »

73 (Grand Rapids suburbs and exurbs) was 55-39 Trump in 2016 and 55-43 James in 2018.

96 (Bay City) was 51-43 Trump in 2016, 51-47 Stabenow in 2018.
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Splash
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2020, 03:34:46 AM »

76 (Grand Rapids suburbs) is bad for Biden, was 56-37 for Clinton in 2016 and 60-38 Stabenow in 2018

96 (Bay City) was 51-43 Trump in 2016, 51-47 Stabenow in 2018.

This is the 73rd HD, not the 76th. It was Trump +17 in 2016 or something like that.

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Stuart98
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2020, 03:47:36 AM »

76 (Grand Rapids suburbs) is bad for Biden, was 56-37 for Clinton in 2016 and 60-38 Stabenow in 2018

96 (Bay City) was 51-43 Trump in 2016, 51-47 Stabenow in 2018.

This is the 73rd HD, not the 76th. It was Trump +17 in 2016 or something like that.


Oops, fixed. This is a very good poll for Peters and Biden then. Biden's gotta be winning Kent County with those numbers.
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Splash
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2020, 03:49:18 AM »

Anyway, the 96th has been trending to the right for a while. This district is centered on Bay City, which is one of those quintessential midsize cities that has been somewhat hollowed out by automation in the automobile industry. The surrounding townships have a strong agricultural tradition, with sugar beats being the prime example. Traditionally, pro-life, pro-gun Democrats have done well here and the Democratic Party is still dominant on the county level, but that playbook has never worked as well on the national level for obvious reasons and is becoming even less relevant as time goes one.

Unlike the 96th district, the 73rd is much more affluent, much more college-educated, and experiencing a high degree of population growth. This is the stereotypical district where you'd expect to see a suburban revolt against Trump and the Republican Party. If Democrats win the state house seat here, they are almost assuredly winning flipping the chamber overall as there are still several other contested seats in Oakland County that should be easier to flip.
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