MI HD-73, HD-96 - Target Insyght/MIRS News: Biden +6%, Trump +6%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mirsnews.podbean.com/e/mirs-monday-oct-26-2020/

October 20-22
300 voters - apparently per district
MoE: 5.7% - for (each?) 300 sample

HD-73
Biden 52%
Trump 46%

Brian Posthumus (R) 41%
Bill Saxton (D) 40%

Lynn Afendoulis (R) won 60.11%-39.89% in 2018.

HD-96
Trump 51%
Biden 45%

Beson (R) 47%
Elder (D) 46%

Brian Elder (D) won 56.5%-43.5% in 2018.

[Gone to Carolina]

District 73 was Trump +17 in 2016 and 96 was Trump +8 just for comparisons sake.

[Bootes Void]

One district shows a giant swing and the other one shows nothing. What are these districts like?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

One district shows a giant swing and the other one shows nothing. What are these districts like?

HD-73: suburban
HD-96: rural

This poll suggests the realignment is going to be sharper than public polling indicates - in Michigan, at least.

[Devils30]

73 is Grand Rapids, some very educated towns.

96 is Bay County- clearly GOP trending rural area

[RBH]

Bay City is a little different from just being rural. It was a Lumber/Mill/Shipbuilding hub. So maybe the Michigan version of the places in Washington State (Aberdeen/etc) where Trump was the first Republican to win there since the 1920s. Or maybe sorta like rust belt towns on a river in OH or PA.

Also the incomplete Wikipedia list of notable Bay City events includes a fire, a bridge being damaged by a freighter, another fire, another fire, an explosion caused by a passing cargo ship causing a tanker to "break free of its berth", the municipal power company accidentally killing a customer by limiting his power over an unpaid $1000 bill, and a fire at city hall in 2010.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One district shows a giant swing and the other one shows nothing. What are these districts like?

73 is suburban Grand Rapids, 96 is Bay City and some surrounding areas.

[Splash]

The 96th has been trending to the right for a while. This district is centered on Bay City, which is one of those quintessential midsize cities that has been somewhat hollowed out by automation in the automobile industry. The surrounding townships have a strong agricultural tradition, with sugar beats being the prime example. Traditionally, pro-life, pro-gun Democrats have done well here and the Democratic Party is still dominant on the county level, but that playbook has never worked as well on the national level for obvious reasons and it is becoming even less relevant as time goes on.

Unlike the 96th district, the 73rd is much more affluent, much more college-educated, and experiencing a high degree of population growth. This is the stereotypical district where you'd expect to see a suburban revolt against Trump and the Republican Party. If Democrats win the state house seat here, they are almost assuredly winning flipping the chamber overall as there are still several other contested seats in Oakland County that would flip first.

That said, if Biden can hold his own in areas like the 96th, or even marginally improve on Clinton's performance, while making significant gains in suburban districts like the 73rd, then he will be well on his way to winning Michigan with a lot of room to spare.