Which poster will be eating the most crow after the Election?

[Tender Branson]

Tender Branson literally predicted a Trump victory out of nowhere today so he’s a candidate

Here's my new prediction:





Ridicule at your own risk.

I think Trump will do somewhat well with the Latinos in certain states and Biden not as well with Whites compared to what polls say.

But not in all.

For example, Biden should struggle to win NV, while doing better with AZ Whites.

I expect Southern/Sunbelt Whites to swing a bit more towards Biden than the Northern Great Lakes Whites. Biden should also do well with the NE Whites for example in NH and Maine.

Combined, this will lead to some really crazy results.

On the other hand, I predicted a slim Hillary-win last time (but easily thought Trump could surprise as well, which he did).

So, this time I'm doing the reversed thing: predict a slight Trump win, while easily thinking that Biden could win in a surprise ...

Let's see how it plays out ...

[WD]

Tender Branson literally predicted a Trump victory out of nowhere today so he’s a candidate

Here's my new prediction:





Ridicule at your own risk.

I think Trump will do somewhat well with the Latinos in certain states and Biden not as well with Whites compared to what polls say.

But not in all.

For example, Biden should struggle to win NV, while doing better with AZ Whites.

I expect Southern/Sunbelt Whites to swing a bit more towards Biden than the Northern Great Lakes Whites. Biden should also do well with the NE Whites for example in NH and Maine.

Combined, this will lead to some really crazy results.

On the other hand, I predicted a slim Hillary-win last time (but easily thought Trump could surprise as well, which he did).

So, this time I'm doing the reversed thing: predict a slight Trump win, while easily thinking that Biden could win in a surprise ...

Let's see how it plays out ...

Biden is up by 9 nationally, Trump isn’t anywhere close to favored lol.

[Tender Branson]

This is also some sort of a hybrid map, with some elements of a nice Biden win (if it happens), or a surprise Trump win (if it happens).

I will refine this over the next days.

For example I have WA with 60%+ for Biden, indicating a nice Biden win.

I have MI at 50%+ for Biden as well, indicating a nice Biden win as well.

On the other hand, I have NC as a 50%+ win for Trump - indicating a good result for him in the South (NC is the first state to report on election night and I expect something like 51-47 or 50-48 for him there.)

This hybrid map will probably allow my prediction to score well again on the "score" metric, but probably not as well on the "total state wins" metric ...

[Tender Branson]

Biden is up by 9 nationally, Trump isn’t anywhere close to favored lol.

He might be, or he might not be.

I think he's more up by 3-5 in reality, with many swing states behaving in a wild manner.

This year has all the ingredients to produce a really strange map ...

[Hammy]

So I see we've learned absolutely nothing from 2018's panic over Nevada.

[Tender Branson]

So I see we've learned absolutely nothing from 2018's panic over Nevada.

I would generally see NV going to Biden, but his extremely weak performance there during the caucus (much worse than Hillary) could mean a surprise win for Trump there this time ...

[Ferguson97]

Tender Branson literally predicted a Trump victory out of nowhere today so he’s a candidate

Here's my new prediction:





Ridicule at your own risk.

Explain your reasoning for NV/PA/NE-02/NC

[Tender Branson]

Tender Branson literally predicted a Trump victory out of nowhere today so he’s a candidate

Here's my new prediction:





Ridicule at your own risk.

Explain your reasoning for NV/PA/NE-02/NC

NV is already explained above.

PA is kind of a strange state, with polling very stable, but also not really much more than Biden+5 on average.

I could somehow see it as a 2020 version of Al Gore's home state TN in 2000, which was expected to go to Gore but then Bush won it by a modest margin.

Anyway, if Trump wins it again, it will be by a very small margin again. The numbers might not be there for Biden.

NE-02 and NC could remain Trump because Evangelical voters "thank" him for his conservative Supreme Court pick.

And there's some kind of polling error in those states, but more in PA and NE-02 than in NC.

[Hammy]

So I see we've learned absolutely nothing from 2018's panic over Nevada.

I would generally see NV going to Biden, but his extremely weak performance there during the caucus (much worse than Hillary) could mean a surprise win for Trump there this time ...

Caucus doesn't mean a whole lot given a much smaller number of people are voting vs the primary. Not to mention the race was significantly more crowded than in 2016, where Hillary faced literally one opponent.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Whoever losses.

[Ferguson97]

So I see we've learned absolutely nothing from 2018's panic over Nevada.

I would generally see NV going to Biden, but his extremely weak performance there during the caucus (much worse than Hillary) could mean a surprise win for Trump there this time ...

Caucus doesn't mean a whole lot given a much smaller number of people are voting vs the primary. Not to mention the race was significantly more crowded than in 2016, where Hillary faced literally one opponent.

Also, the entire argument is based on the idea that there are people who participate in a Democratic caucus that won’t support the democratic nominee. That doesn’t make sense considering how much more of a commitment caucuses are than primaries. Who are these mythical voters that spent hours caucusing for Sanders or Warren, but will now either stay home or swap to Trump?

[Tender Branson]

There are also other - more psychological reasons - why Trump might win again, but I will explain those on Wednesday if he really wins, because I don't want to look like an idiot right now.

(Hopefully, I don't have to explain those reasons at all next week ...)

[Hammy]

There are also other - more psychological reasons - why Trump might win again, but I will explain those on Wednesday if he really wins, because I don't want to look like an idiot right now.

(Hopefully, I don't have to explain those reasons at all next week ...)

Should've thought of that before predicting Nevada to go to Trump. You're in the point of no return now.

Polling is five points to the left of 2018's polling, and the result was five points left of said polling.

[Ferguson97]

There are also other - more psychological reasons - why Trump might win again, but I will explain those on Wednesday if he really wins, because I don't want to look like an idiot right now.

(Hopefully, I don't have to explain those reasons at all next week ...)

That’s not how this works, you can’t make a prediction and then give your explanation after the lucky guess is proven right.

[Torrain]

He hasn't posted since October 3, and in his last posts, continued to express his view that Biden's victory will be a narrow one, that Trump could still pull this off, and that posters on here are greatly underestimating Trump and Republicans in general. Now, I think that he backs up his arguments with evidence and points, but I think he's misconstrued much of what we're seeing with this election. We'll see if he decides to return here before Election Day.

People that vanish this close to the election are probably setting up to claim they were right. If Trump wins, he'll say it validated his views. If Biden wins, he'll say he was right and didn't need to post since everybody else was saying the same.

Is Stevie Wonder still around?

He was banned for being a sock if I recall

You're right. Someone who I would love to see on here right now is IceSpear. Yes, he was wrong about the Kentucky gubernatorial election last year, but I sense he would be having some brutally realistic takes right now that would help temper both doomerism and exaggerated optimism about Biden's chances.

Only Icespear mastered all four elements.
#
Only he could stop the ruthless hot-takes.

But when we needed him most he vanished...

[DaleCooper]

Anybody that ever said Minnesota was a tossup.

[Meclazine for Israel]

There are also other - more psychological reasons - why Trump might win again, but I will explain those on Wednesday if he really wins, because I don't want to look like an idiot right now.

(Hopefully, I don't have to explain those reasons at all next week ...)

I love the way you got your plums out and put them on the table.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every R pollster that kept on predicting a Trump WI and PA win and posted maps. We as D's never doubted that Biden was gonna replicate 278 or 291 freiwall but doubted the wave insurance that Biden has built up since the Floyd protests

[T'Chenka]

We as D's never doubted that Biden was gonna replicate 278 or 291 freiwall
m

Time to change your avatar colour to red.

[S019ian Liberal]

Alben Barkley, whom I greatly respect...

[S019ian Liberal]

I think "eating the most crow" can't apply to someone who expresses uncertainty or even thinks Biden will win narrowly. It has to go to somebody who really thinks Trump will win outright and yells about it a lot (Forumlurker et all) or someone who is all in on the 413 map (Monstro et all).

The equivalency doesn't even remotely exist her, my dude. 413 for biden is far likelier than trump getting to win with 270 at this point!

[S019ian Liberal]

I don’t eat crow.
If I’m right I’m right and if I’m wrong I’m wrong. I’m bound to get at least something wrong, so hopefully I can learn a lesson to make my next predictions better. A lot of people here seem to either over learn lessons though or learn the wrong lessons.

You wood make a good politician.

[S019ian Liberal]

I’ve staked it all on NV three cycles in a row, and I don’t think I’ll be wrong this time. Anyway, I’d say in addition to the other doomers, Millennial Moderate will be eating quite a bit here and on the Congressional board, where he’s saying there’s “no chance” Democrats win the Senate.

What exactly is your pred on NV again? Because "Biden win" is not particularly bold, though I'd respect saying so.

[S019ian Liberal]

Also, the entire argument is based on the idea that there are people who participate in a Democratic caucus that won’t support the democratic nominee. That doesn’t make sense considering how much more of a commitment caucuses are than primaries. Who are these mythical voters that spent hours caucusing for Sanders or Warren, but will now either stay home or swap to Trump?

The theory is not about those people per se in particular, rather it's what it spells out for the vast majority of Dem leaners who did NOT caucus in the contest. The fact Biden only got around 20% there indicates a signalling that he's not popular in NV overall among the electorate's broader sweat of voters.

Again, I'm not *defending* this approach, but rather explaining that you're simply interpreting their argument wrong. Sorry if I come across as abrasive in saying that btw, just trying to be helpful in here so.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think Forumlurker is putting on an act. He doesn't actually believe that Trump is going to win again. Many people on here are setting themselves up for elation, as I see it. But yes, there are some users who will have egg on their faces next week. Hopefully, I'm not one of them. I'll mention one person whose name hasn't been brought up yet: ElectionsGuy.

He hasn't posted since October 3, and in his last posts, continued to express his view that Biden's victory will be a narrow one, that Trump could still pull this off, and that posters on here are greatly underestimating Trump and Republicans in general. Now, I think that he backs up his arguments with evidence and points, but I think he's misconstrued much of what we're seeing with this election. We'll see if he decides to return here before Election Day.

LOL