Which poster will be eating the most crow after the Election?

[Hammy]

He hasn't posted since October 3, and in his last posts, continued to express his view that Biden's victory will be a narrow one, that Trump could still pull this off, and that posters on here are greatly underestimating Trump and Republicans in general. Now, I think that he backs up his arguments with evidence and points, but I think he's misconstrued much of what we're seeing with this election. We'll see if he decides to return here before Election Day.

People that vanish this close to the election are probably setting up to claim they were right. If Trump wins, he'll say it validated his views. If Biden wins, he'll say he was right and didn't need to post since everybody else was saying the same.

Is Stevie Wonder still around?

He was banned for being a sock if I recall

[Alben Barkley]

I staked my ‘reputation’ on NH in 2016, I’ll stake it on IA this year. No way it flips before any other remotely competitive swing state (including OH/FL/NC/GA), and the Senate seat is no better than seat 53 for Democrats.

I'm already preparing the crow for you to eat.

Although I noticed you didn't include TX in that list. Already pivoting from "TX will definitely vote to the left of IA," are we?

And it's objectively incorrect to even say Ohio is more likely to flip than Iowa at this point. The data is clear.

I just love how certain you seem to be about Iowa based on pretty much nothing by the way. "Duhh Iowa have many WWC, many WWC vote Trump, so Iowa vote Trump bigly." That seems to be the extent of your "analysis," such as it exists. Nuance? Logic? Forget it! Long electoral history in Iowa preceding 2016? History which includes the state voting left of the nation consistently for nearly 30 years? History which clearly shows the state is highly elastic and prone to larger swings than most? Polls consistently showing a very different situation in Iowa than they did in 2016? COVID cases sky high in the state/region at the moment? Nope, none of that matters. IndyRep's feels say Iowa is Solid R, therefore all the data and facts to the contrary can get f--ked.

At this point I would almost rather win Iowa than Texas or Georgia or Florida, despite how many fewer EVs it has, solely so you and all the other "TRENDS ARE LOVE, TRENDS ARE LIFE" posters eat crow.

[It’s so Joever]

I staked my ‘reputation’ on NH in 2016, I’ll stake it on IA this year. No way it flips before any other remotely competitive swing state (including OH/FL/NC/GA), and the Senate seat is no better than seat 53 for Democrats.

I'm already preparing the crow for you to eat.

Although I noticed you didn't include TX in that list. Already pivoting from "TX will definitely vote to the left of IA," are we?

And it's objectively incorrect to even say Ohio is more likely to flip than Iowa at this point. The data is clear.

I just love how certain you seem to be about Iowa based on pretty much nothing by the way. "Duhh Iowa have many WWC, many WWC vote Trump, so Iowa vote Trump bigly." That seems to be the extent of your "analysis," such as it exists. Nuance? Logic? Forget it! Long electoral history in Iowa preceding 2016? History which includes the state voting left of the nation consistently for nearly 30 years? History which clearly shows the state is highly elastic and prone to larger swings than most? Polls consistently showing a very different situation in Iowa than they did in 2016? Nope, none of that matters. IndyRep's feels say Iowa is Solid R, therefore all the data and facts to the contrary can get f--ked.

At this point I would almost rather win Iowa than Texas or Georgia or Florida, despite how many fewer EVs it has, solely so you and all the other "TRENDS ARE LOVE, TRENDS ARE LIFE" posters eat crow.

Dude, you literally believe in the 413 map...
IndyRep probably will be more right than you.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don’t eat crow.
If I’m right I’m right and if I’m wrong I’m wrong. I’m bound to get at least something wrong, so hopefully I can learn a lesson to make my next predictions better. A lot of people here seem to either over learn lessons though or learn the wrong lessons.

[It’s so Joever]

I don’t eat crow.
If I’m right I’m right and if I’m wrong I’m wrong. I’m bound to get at least something wrong, so hopefully I can learn a lesson to make my next predictions better. A lot of people here seem to either over learn lessons though or learn the wrong lessons.

You are fifteen, and still somehow more mature than most of Atlas, myself including.
Kudos to you.

[Alben Barkley]

The 413 NUT map optimists like Monstro or the tiresome doomers like Forumlurker161 will potentially be eating a lot of crow, but I know it won't be me because my prediction is more in the middle of the range of possible outcomes.

How are those even remotely comparable? The 413 map or better is more likely at this point than Trump winning at all. That's not even an opinion, it's a cold hard fact based on the data. Never mind the preposterous way Lurker has it, with Biden winning WI and PA but losing MI.

[Alben Barkley]

He hasn't posted since October 3, and in his last posts, continued to express his view that Biden's victory will be a narrow one, that Trump could still pull this off, and that posters on here are greatly underestimating Trump and Republicans in general. Now, I think that he backs up his arguments with evidence and points, but I think he's misconstrued much of what we're seeing with this election. We'll see if he decides to return here before Election Day.

People that vanish this close to the election are probably setting up to claim they were right. If Trump wins, he'll say it validated his views. If Biden wins, he'll say he was right and didn't need to post since everybody else was saying the same.

Is Stevie Wonder still around?

He was banned for being a sock if I recall

Wow! What a shocker!

Called that one from I think his very first post.

[Calthrina950]

He hasn't posted since October 3, and in his last posts, continued to express his view that Biden's victory will be a narrow one, that Trump could still pull this off, and that posters on here are greatly underestimating Trump and Republicans in general. Now, I think that he backs up his arguments with evidence and points, but I think he's misconstrued much of what we're seeing with this election. We'll see if he decides to return here before Election Day.

People that vanish this close to the election are probably setting up to claim they were right. If Trump wins, he'll say it validated his views. If Biden wins, he'll say he was right and didn't need to post since everybody else was saying the same.

Is Stevie Wonder still around?

He was banned for being a sock if I recall

You're right. Someone who I would love to see on here right now is IceSpear. Yes, he was wrong about the Kentucky gubernatorial election last year, but I sense he would be having some brutally realistic takes right now that would help temper both doomerism and exaggerated optimism about Biden's chances.

[Hope For A New Era]

Horus and Forumlurker know that they are wrong and are trolling, so they will be emotionally intact.

However for the serious Republicans out there, 2020 might make them permanently a bit bruised.

Well, I guess that will even the score after 2016.

[Ferguson97]

The 413 NUT map optimists like Monstro or the tiresome doomers like Forumlurker161 will potentially be eating a lot of crow, but I know it won't be me because my prediction is more in the middle of the range of possible outcomes.

In my defense, my final prediction is 388

So you think Trump wins Iowa, Ohio, and ME-02?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The 413 NUT map optimists like Monstro or the tiresome doomers like Forumlurker161 will potentially be eating a lot of crow, but I know it won't be me because my prediction is more in the middle of the range of possible outcomes.

He hasn't posted since October 3, and in his last posts, continued to express his view that Biden's victory will be a narrow one, that Trump could still pull this off, and that posters on here are greatly underestimating Trump and Republicans in general. Now, I think that he backs up his arguments with evidence and points, but I think he's misconstrued much of what we're seeing with this election. We'll see if he decides to return here before Election Day.

I think "eating the most crow" can't apply to someone who expresses uncertainty or even thinks Biden will win narrowly. It has to go to somebody who really thinks Trump will win outright and yells about it a lot (Forumlurker et all) or someone who is all in on the 413 map (Monstro et all).

For the record, I've settled on the 388 map

Final prediction

Biden 388-150

I'm most unsure of how Ohio & ME-2 will go

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

For the record, I've settled on the 388 map

Final prediction

Biden 388-150

I'm most unsure of how Ohio & ME-2 will go

Same actually.

[Ferguson97]

The 413 NUT map optimists like Monstro or the tiresome doomers like Forumlurker161 will potentially be eating a lot of crow, but I know it won't be me because my prediction is more in the middle of the range of possible outcomes.

He hasn't posted since October 3, and in his last posts, continued to express his view that Biden's victory will be a narrow one, that Trump could still pull this off, and that posters on here are greatly underestimating Trump and Republicans in general. Now, I think that he backs up his arguments with evidence and points, but I think he's misconstrued much of what we're seeing with this election. We'll see if he decides to return here before Election Day.

I think "eating the most crow" can't apply to someone who expresses uncertainty or even thinks Biden will win narrowly. It has to go to somebody who really thinks Trump will win outright and yells about it a lot (Forumlurker et all) or someone who is all in on the 413 map (Monstro et all).

For the record, I've settled on the 388 map

Final prediction

Biden 388-150

I'm most unsure of how Ohio & ME-2 will go

Ironically I'm more optimistic than you at this point - I have your map but Iowa and ME-02 go to Biden.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Ironically I'm more optimistic than you at this point - I have your map but Iowa and ME-02 go to Biden.

Like the 538 model to my Economist model, I knew we'd end up converging  

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Beet and SN2903 are my top two offenders.

I would mention Woodbury, but I'm convinced that's an SN2903 sock account.

SN's never been particularly offensive in his posts and mainly clings to some bad polling takes, Woodbury literally had a hitler quote in his sig and has made numerous racist comments, and gone so far as to say he hopes democracy is overthrown.

I like how a mod liked your post, and yet they refuse to do anything about him. Pathetic.

[WD]

For the record, I've settled on the 388 map

Final prediction

Biden 388-150

I'm most unsure of how Ohio & ME-2 will go

Same actually.

Yeah, that’s the same map I have

[YE]

Beet and SN2903 are my top two offenders.

I would mention Woodbury, but I'm convinced that's an SN2903 sock account.

SN's never been particularly offensive in his posts and mainly clings to some bad polling takes, Woodbury literally had a hitler quote in his sig and has made numerous racist comments, and gone so far as to say he hopes democracy is overthrown.

I like how a mod liked your post, and yet they refuse to do anything about him. Pathetic.

We’ve sanctioned Woodbury in the past.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Beet and SN2903 are my top two offenders.

I would mention Woodbury, but I'm convinced that's an SN2903 sock account.

SN's never been particularly offensive in his posts and mainly clings to some bad polling takes, Woodbury literally had a hitler quote in his sig and has made numerous racist comments, and gone so far as to say he hopes democracy is overthrown.

I like how a mod liked your post, and yet they refuse to do anything about him. Pathetic.

We’ve sanctioned Woodbury in the past.

[Xing]

I’ve staked it all on NV three cycles in a row, and I don’t think I’ll be wrong this time. Anyway, I’d say in addition to the other doomers, Millennial Moderate will be eating quite a bit here and on the Congressional board, where he’s saying there’s “no chance” Democrats win the Senate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’ve staked it all on NV three cycles in a row, and I don’t think I’ll be wrong this time. Anyway, I’d say in addition to the other doomers, Millennial Moderate will be eating quite a bit here and on the Congressional board, where he’s saying there’s “no chance” Democrats win the Senate.

What do you think would it take for NV to actually vote R in a presidential election? What are the most likely scenarios, broadly speaking?

[Xing]

I’ve staked it all on NV three cycles in a row, and I don’t think I’ll be wrong this time. Anyway, I’d say in addition to the other doomers, Millennial Moderate will be eating quite a bit here and on the Congressional board, where he’s saying there’s “no chance” Democrats win the Senate.

What do you think would it take for NV to actually vote R in a presidential election? What are the most likely scenarios, broadly speaking?

The easiest answer would be a huge Republican win, in which every Trump state and several Clinton states go Republican. As for what it would take for NV to go Republican while states like MN/MI/WI go Democratic, the only thing I can think of would be either a Nevada Republican like Sandoval on the ticket (hard to see that happening), or significant growth and very high turnout in rural NV relative to the cities. The growth and turnout in Clark and Washoe makes NV a very hard state for Republicans, under most circumstances.

[Tender Branson]

Tender Branson literally predicted a Trump victory out of nowhere today so he’s a candidate

Here's my new prediction:





Ridicule at your own risk.

[WD]

Tender Branson literally predicted a Trump victory out of nowhere today so he’s a candidate

Here's my new prediction:





Ridicule at your own risk.

>NV to the right of AZ
>ME-02 to the left of PA

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Tender Branson]

>NV to the right of AZ
>ME-02 to the left of PA

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

I'm actually a bit unsure about NV and ME-2.

Maybe NV will vote Biden, ME-2 for Trump again, creating a 269-269 tie.

In which case Trump would likely be re-elected by the House delegations.

[Stuart98]

Tender Branson literally predicted a Trump victory out of nowhere today so he’s a candidate

Here's my new prediction:





Ridicule at your own risk.

> 12 states in tossup

There's not much risk to ridiculing this.