FL SD-3, 9, 37, 39 - Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC (D): Biden +11, +11, +14, +3

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/378370-florida-democrats-expect-a-senate-battleground-sweep

Florida Democrats are already conceding that they don't expect to tie (let alone win) in the State Senate (they officially expect to get 19 seats out of 40).

SD-3
ALG Research
October 15, 2020
503 voters

This district gave Clinton 52% of the vote in 2016 (a +9 margin). In the same year, the State Senate election broke to Montford (D), 67.36%-32.64%.

Ausley (D) 48%
Preston (R) 40%

SD-9
GQR Research
October 16, 2020
400 voters

Trump won this district 49.5%-45.3%. David Simmons (R) ran for the State Senate and won unopposed in the 2016 general election.

Sigman (D) 42%
Brodeur (D) 42%

SD-37
SEA Research
October 13, 2020
400 voters

A Clinton +22 district. Rodriguez (D) won the State Senate seat 48.85%-45.59% in 2016.

Rodriguez (D) 42%
Garcia (R) 37%

SD-39
GQR Research
October 9
503 voters

Clinton won this district 53%-43%.  Flores (R) won 54.24%-45.76% in 2016.

Fernandez (D) 43%
Rodriguez (R) 43%

[ultraviolet]

Florida Democrats are already conceding that they don't expect to tie (let alone win) in the State Senate (they officially expect to get 19 seats out of 40).

Can bloomberg just buy the party already ugh

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/378370-florida-democrats-expect-a-senate-battleground-sweep

Florida Democrats are already conceding that they don't expect to tie (let alone win) in the State Senate (they officially expect to get 19 seats out of 40).

Can bloomberg just buy the party already ugh

The public polls have FLDEMs doing better in certain districts. They can't even use internals properly.

EDIT: I made a mistake, though. Ausley is up by 8%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Disappointed by his underperformance in Miami, though the swings towards him in other regions of the state seems like enough to cancel that out

[Lief 🗽]

Looking rough. The Biden campaign should have taken my advice last week and pulled out of here. What a waste.

[Donerail]

Florida Democrats are already conceding that they don't expect to tie (let alone win) in the State Senate (they officially expect to get 19 seats out of 40).

Can bloomberg just buy the party already ugh

Not sure what amount of money you think would be enough to win SD-20 or SD-25, but it's not enough. 19 lets you take the Senate in '22 with the Hialeah and Gainesville-Ocala seats, 17 does not.

[forza nocta]

Launch Florida into space

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking rough. The Biden campaign should have taken my advice last week and pulled out of here. What a waste.

Lol, they definately should make a play at FL. If it is called for Biden there’s a good chance the race will rap up pretty quickly, plus winning FL bars Trump of any realistic path to victory. You also realize these polls show a net swing towards Biden, right?

[Skill and Chance]

Florida Democrats are already conceding that they don't expect to tie (let alone win) in the State Senate (they officially expect to get 19 seats out of 40).

Can bloomberg just buy the party already ugh

Not sure what amount of money you think would be enough to win SD-20 or SD-25, but it's not enough. 19 lets you take the Senate in '22 with the Hialeah and Gainesville-Ocala seats, 17 does not.

Not after the state supreme court neuters FDF it doesn't.

[Skill and Chance]

The Florida map (with shading) is going to be so weird this year.

[BudgieForce]

Looking rough. The Biden campaign should have taken my advice last week and pulled out of here. What a waste.

I can't say I agree. We know Biden is going to under perform Hillary's Miami margins. But the hope is that he can match Obama's performance in Miami-Dade and over perform Hillary's margins everywhere else.

[BudgieForce]

Like, if Biden underperforms Hillary in Miami-Dade by 7 points, he'll be close to matching Obama's 2012 performance.

The Biden campaign is aiming for a 24% win in Miami-Dade, and I think these polls show thats a realistic goal.

[Devils30]

What was DeSantis/Gillum in SD 9, 37, 39?

[Donerail]

What was DeSantis/Gillum in SD 9, 37, 39?

3: 55/44 Gillum
9: 49/50 DeSantis
37: 55/43 Gillum
39: 50/49 Gillum

[Bootes Void]

What was DeSantis/Gillum in SD 9, 37, 39?

3: 55/44 Gillum
9: 49/50 DeSantis
37: 55/43 Gillum
39: 50/49 Gillum

District 9 shows a huge jump, he is even or above everywhere else

[Tekken_Guy]

What was DeSantis/Gillum in SD 9, 37, 39?

3: 55/44 Gillum
9: 49/50 DeSantis
37: 55/43 Gillum
39: 50/49 Gillum

How about Scott/Nelson?

[Devils30]

What was DeSantis/Gillum in SD 9, 37, 39?

3: 55/44 Gillum
9: 49/50 DeSantis
37: 55/43 Gillum
39: 50/49 Gillum

Seminole County looks like it might be Trump's kryptonite.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What was DeSantis/Gillum in SD 9, 37, 39?

3: 55/44 Gillum
9: 49/50 DeSantis
37: 55/43 Gillum
39: 50/49 Gillum

Where are these districts?

[Stuart98]

What was DeSantis/Gillum in SD 9, 37, 39?

3: 55/44 Gillum
9: 49/50 DeSantis
37: 55/43 Gillum
39: 50/49 Gillum

Where are these districts?

3 is Tallahasse and 11 counties in the surrounding area, 9 is Seminole County and adjacent parts of Volusia County, 37 is coastal parts of Miami proper, 39 is Monroe County and the western and southern parts of Miami-Dade.

[Mr.Phips]

Florida Democrats are already conceding that they don't expect to tie (let alone win) in the State Senate (they officially expect to get 19 seats out of 40).

Can bloomberg just buy the party already ugh

Not sure what amount of money you think would be enough to win SD-20 or SD-25, but it's not enough. 19 lets you take the Senate in '22 with the Hialeah and Gainesville-Ocala seats, 17 does not.

Not winning the Gainesville seat in 2018(or 2016 for that matter) is really going to screw Democrats.

[DaleCooper]

The fact that Biden is outperforming Gillum everywhere to varying degrees is a good sign for him.

[Donerail]

What was DeSantis/Gillum in SD 9, 37, 39?

3: 55/44 Gillum
9: 49/50 DeSantis
37: 55/43 Gillum
39: 50/49 Gillum

How about Scott/Nelson?

3: 57/43 Nelson
9: 50/50 DeSantis
37: 57/43 Nelson
39: 51/49 Nelson

[Skill and Chance]

What was DeSantis/Gillum in SD 9, 37, 39?

3: 55/44 Gillum
9: 49/50 DeSantis
37: 55/43 Gillum
39: 50/49 Gillum

How about Scott/Nelson?

3: 57/43 Nelson
9: 50/50 DeSantis
37: 57/43 Nelson
39: 51/49 Nelson

Hmmm... so SD-09 was a Scott district?  That does make me feel better about Biden in Florida because he is at least performing in line with Nelson/Gillum everywhere else.