Who wins in CA-21?

[Woody]

?

[Gracile]

Cox, easily. Also, Idk why the OP is posting threads for the same overhyped Republican pickup opportunities (this is like his fifth one for CA-21). At least posters like VARepublican take time for some of the more genuinely competitive GOP-held seats.

[GALeftist]

Valadao is a washed up loser.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the district's partisan lean will save Cox. Hillary won this district by like 15%, right?

[Xing]

Cox, and it won't be that close.

[Calthrina950]

Cox, easily. Also, Idk why the OP is posting threads for the same overhyped Republican pickup opportunities (this is like his fifth one for CA-21). At least posters like VARepublican take time for some of the more genuinely competitive GOP-held seats.

Sir Woodbury is very optimistic about Republican chances, to put it mildly. I still haven't been able to tell if he's trolling, if he's genuine, or what. I've seen very similar electoral takes to his over at the CityData forums, and on conservative websites, where most posters still seem to think that Trump is headed to an easy reelection.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Cox, easily. Also, Idk why the OP is posting threads for the same overhyped Republican pickup opportunities (this is like his fifth one for CA-21). At least posters like VARepublican take time for some of the more genuinely competitive GOP-held seats.

Sir Woodbury is very optimistic about Republican chances, to put it mildly. I still haven't been able to tell if he's trolling, if he's genuine, or what. I've seen very similar electoral takes to his over at the CityData forums, and on conservative websites, where most posters still seem to think that Trump is headed to an easy reelection.

I have a few threads on conservative forums bookmarked for 11/3. They're obsessed with TargetSmart data and are in for a rude awakening.

[Calthrina950]

Cox, easily. Also, Idk why the OP is posting threads for the same overhyped Republican pickup opportunities (this is like his fifth one for CA-21). At least posters like VARepublican take time for some of the more genuinely competitive GOP-held seats.

Sir Woodbury is very optimistic about Republican chances, to put it mildly. I still haven't been able to tell if he's trolling, if he's genuine, or what. I've seen very similar electoral takes to his over at the CityData forums, and on conservative websites, where most posters still seem to think that Trump is headed to an easy reelection.

I have a few threads on conservative forums bookmarked for 11/3. They're obsessed with TargetSmart data and are in for a rude awakening.

I've never even heard of TargetSmart before, or at least I don't recognize it right away. Given what you've said here, that might be a good thing. But yes, many people (including my own father) are convinced that Trump is going to win reelection, and think the polls are wrong. Of course, it's not over until it's over, but it's hard for me to see Trump as favored at this point. It'll be interesting what SirWoodbury and others will have to say once the election results are in.

[S019]

Cox, but this could honestly be somewhat close, turnout patterns here are erratic, but I think incumbency and presidential turnout should be enough for Cox to win, Lean D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

daddy cox

[LimoLiberal]

Valadao wouldn't surprise me, given Biden's slide with Hispanics, but the punditry/polling that was so laughably bad here in 2018 sounds very similar now and that's why I think Cox still has the edge.

[Pericles]

If Valadao couldn't win in 2018 as an incumbent with lower Hispanic turnout, he's not winning now. Cox has this.

[Coastal Elitist]

lol this thread aged well

[MT Treasurer]

If Valadao couldn't win in 2018 as an incumbent with lower Hispanic turnout, he's not winning now. Cox has this.

^Hmm, he never learns, huh? Not a good look...

That said, I don’t think bumping countless threads to rub it in people's face accomplishes much at this point. Yes, those of you who predicted that Valadao would win/still had a good chance of winning were right, but if you’re being honest with yourselves, you had little other than ‘gut feeling’ or a ‘hunch’ to go by. It would be more understandable if you were criticizing people for blatantly disregarding every single indicator (partisan lean, recent election results, polling biases in this district in previous elections, etc.) and deliberately ignoring the big picture OR if this was a district/state notorious for pre-election polling overstating Democratic strength, but none of that was true in this case. It’s fair to ‘call out’ this forum for being a Democratic echo chamber, but I don’t think the Atlas consensus with regard to particular race really helps you make your point, to say nothing of the fact that it gets pretty old after 100+ bumps.