Univision: Biden+5 in AZ, +3 in FL, +5 in PA, Trump+3 in TX | Biden+41 nationwide among Latinos (user search)
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  Univision: Biden+5 in AZ, +3 in FL, +5 in PA, Trump+3 in TX | Biden+41 nationwide among Latinos (search mode)
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Author Topic: Univision: Biden+5 in AZ, +3 in FL, +5 in PA, Trump+3 in TX | Biden+41 nationwide among Latinos  (Read 2471 times)
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
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Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

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« on: October 28, 2020, 01:07:47 PM »


They and Latino Decisions tend to be better at polling Latinos than organizations that aren't run by and for Latinos. And they both find if anything a shift away from Trump among them since 2016. So believe what you want, but just know you might have egg on your face.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2020, 01:09:31 PM »


2016 Poll: +48% Clinton (67-19%)

2016 Exit Polls: +38% Clinton (66-28%)

From a Florida perspective, I cannot fathom a way that this poll is bad for Trump given the polling bias.  In 2016, Clinton did 7 points better among Hispanics in Florida than Biden is doing in this poll, and two 2016 polls with Spanish Interpreters overestimated Clintons support among Cubans.      

"The polling bias?" They nailed Clinton's percentage, just underestimated Trump's. Probably simply because, like most polls, most all the "undecideds" actually turned out to be Trump voters. There are fewer undecideds this year, including in this poll, which matches the 2016 exit poll pretty close. That's probably the reason for the discrepancy, not "polling bias."
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