Univision: Biden+5 in AZ, +3 in FL, +5 in PA, Trump+3 in TX | Biden+41 nationwide among Latinos
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  Univision: Biden+5 in AZ, +3 in FL, +5 in PA, Trump+3 in TX | Biden+41 nationwide among Latinos
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Author Topic: Univision: Biden+5 in AZ, +3 in FL, +5 in PA, Trump+3 in TX | Biden+41 nationwide among Latinos  (Read 2399 times)
n1240
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« on: October 28, 2020, 12:13:13 PM »

https://st1.uvnimg.com/33/8f/ed1016da4a5fb16ec7e34cd5568a/univision-crosstabs-october-final.pdf

Arizona

Biden 50
Trump 45

10/17-25, 725 RV

Florida

Biden 49
Trump 46

10/17-25, 743 RV

Pennsylvania

Biden 50
Trump 45

10/17-25, 723 RV

Texas

Trump 49
Biden 46

10/17-25, 758 RV

Nationwide Latinos

Biden 67
Trump 26

10/17-25, 2608 RV
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2020, 12:13:51 PM »

AZ and FL good, TX and PA meh. But still a good set of polls for Joe.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2020, 12:13:57 PM »

So, it seems like AZ and GA have left the Republican building.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2020, 12:16:27 PM »

But Nate Cohn told me that Trump was surging among Latinos.
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n1240
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2020, 12:18:52 PM »

Latinos oversampled in each state

AZ: Biden 66-26
FL: Biden 57-37
PA: Biden 67-25
TX: Biden 66-28
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2020, 12:21:20 PM »

Changes for TX, other candidates and MoEs added

https://st1.uvnimg.com/33/8f/ed1016da4a5fb16ec7e34cd5568a/univision-crosstabs-october-final.pdf

Arizona

Biden 50
Trump 45
Someone else 2
Undecided 3

10/17-25, 725 RV, MoE: 3.64%

Florida

Biden 49
Trump 46
Someone else 2
Undecided 3

10/17-25, 743 RV, MoE: 3.56%

Pennsylvania

Biden 50
Trump 45
Someone else 3
Undecided 2

10/17-25, 723 RV, MoE: 3.64%

Texas

Trump 49 (+3)
Biden 46 (+3)
Someone else 3 (not previously included)
Undecided 2 (-9)

10/17-25, 758 RV, MoE: 3.56%, changes with February 21-26, 2020

Nationwide Latinos

Biden 67
Trump 26
Someone else 2
Undecided 5

10/17-25, 2608 RV, MoE: 2.21%
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2020, 12:21:49 PM »

Seems mostly reasonable. Will probably switch Texas back to Trump, though I still think Biden beats his polls there.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2020, 12:22:45 PM »

But muh Trump Latino surge
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afleitch
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2020, 12:24:02 PM »

Biden up 67-26 with 2 others

Mexican - Biden +46
Puerto Rican - Biden +49
Cuban - Biden +15
Dominican - Biden +45
South American - Biden +19
Central American  - Biden +47
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Person Man
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2020, 12:25:23 PM »

Looks like on Tuesday Night there's going to be a new Donkey show on PornHub.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2020, 12:31:11 PM »

I really am going to laugh if that is the margin with Latinos and we had all the terrible pundit takes about his performance with them.

AZ and FL look reasonable, though again, for some reason pollsters are having issues polling PA. If Biden is being Beto's margin among Latinos, I find it hard to believe he'd be doing worse among Whites/Blacks.
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Horus
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2020, 12:32:03 PM »

How did they do in 2016?
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2020, 12:38:14 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2020, 01:08:47 PM by Xing »

Wait a minute, Trump is doing worse among Latinos than in 2016, his biggest fans in the country (who totally like the wall and children getting locked in jail cells and don't think there's anything racist about that)!? No way, Atlas told me Trump is SURGING and will surely win Latinos big time!
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UncleSam
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2020, 12:40:47 PM »

Why are they polling RVs in the week before the election...
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2020, 12:42:36 PM »

Wait a minute, Trump is doing worse among Latinos than in 2016, his biggest fans in the country (who totally like the wall and children getting locked in jail cells and don't think there's anything racist about that)!? No way, Atlas told me Trump is SURGING and will surely will Latinos big time!

m-muh machismo Sad
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2020, 12:48:25 PM »

Biden up 67-26 with 2 others

Mexican - Biden +46
Puerto Rican - Biden +49
Cuban - Biden +15
Dominican - Biden +45
South American - Biden +19
Central American  - Biden +47
If Biden is leading Cuban voters nationally by 15%, how does that affect Florida? Doesn't 70% of all Cuban-Americans live in Florida alone?
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Ljube
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2020, 12:52:22 PM »

I don't believe their numbers.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2020, 12:52:38 PM »

The amount of Latino support for Trump on sites like IG is staggering. I think people will be in for a surprise.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2020, 12:52:55 PM »

Why are they polling RVs in the week before the election...

Some pollsters believe there isn't going to be a difference this year given massive turnout. NBC/WSJ isn't doing a LV screen for example.
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Nathan
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« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2020, 12:54:02 PM »

The amount of Latino support for Trump on sites like IG is staggering. I think people will be in for a surprise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauline_Kael
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afleitch
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« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2020, 01:00:23 PM »

If I remember correctly, For all the talk of M I A M I - D A D E, Puerto Rican's are conversely the largest latino group along the I-4 corridor.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2020, 01:03:45 PM »

The amount of Latino support for Trump on sites like IG is staggering. I think people will be in for a surprise.

The thing about statements like this is that we literally have a very good idea how Latinos voted in recent elections because of things like voter files and precinct data etc.  And they consistently vote way *more* for Democrats than most polls show not less.  These Latino Decision polls tend to be much closer to accurate than most other ones.

So unless you're saying this massive shift has all happened post-2018, whatever you're seeing on Instagram just isn't very representative of overall trends.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #22 on: October 28, 2020, 01:07:47 PM »


They and Latino Decisions tend to be better at polling Latinos than organizations that aren't run by and for Latinos. And they both find if anything a shift away from Trump among them since 2016. So believe what you want, but just know you might have egg on your face.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #23 on: October 28, 2020, 01:08:17 PM »


2016 Poll: +48% Clinton (67-19%)

2016 Exit Polls: +38% Clinton (66-28%)

From a Florida perspective, I cannot fathom a way that this poll is bad for Trump given the polling bias.  In 2016, Clinton did 7 points better among Hispanics in Florida than Biden is doing in this poll, and two 2016 polls with Spanish Interpreters overestimated Clintons support among Cubans.      
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #24 on: October 28, 2020, 01:09:31 PM »


2016 Poll: +48% Clinton (67-19%)

2016 Exit Polls: +38% Clinton (66-28%)

From a Florida perspective, I cannot fathom a way that this poll is bad for Trump given the polling bias.  In 2016, Clinton did 7 points better among Hispanics in Florida than Biden is doing in this poll, and two 2016 polls with Spanish Interpreters overestimated Clintons support among Cubans.      

"The polling bias?" They nailed Clinton's percentage, just underestimated Trump's. Probably simply because, like most polls, most all the "undecideds" actually turned out to be Trump voters. There are fewer undecideds this year, including in this poll, which matches the 2016 exit poll pretty close. That's probably the reason for the discrepancy, not "polling bias."
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