Univision: Biden+5 in AZ, +3 in FL, +5 in PA, Trump+3 in TX | Biden+41 nationwide among Latinos (user search)
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  Univision: Biden+5 in AZ, +3 in FL, +5 in PA, Trump+3 in TX | Biden+41 nationwide among Latinos (search mode)
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Author Topic: Univision: Biden+5 in AZ, +3 in FL, +5 in PA, Trump+3 in TX | Biden+41 nationwide among Latinos  (Read 2492 times)
Hollywood
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« on: October 28, 2020, 01:08:17 PM »


2016 Poll: +48% Clinton (67-19%)

2016 Exit Polls: +38% Clinton (66-28%)

From a Florida perspective, I cannot fathom a way that this poll is bad for Trump given the polling bias.  In 2016, Clinton did 7 points better among Hispanics in Florida than Biden is doing in this poll, and two 2016 polls with Spanish Interpreters overestimated Clintons support among Cubans.      
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Hollywood
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2020, 02:38:35 PM »


2016 Poll: +48% Clinton (67-19%)

2016 Exit Polls: +38% Clinton (66-28%)

From a Florida perspective, I cannot fathom a way that this poll is bad for Trump given the polling bias.  In 2016, Clinton did 7 points better among Hispanics in Florida than Biden is doing in this poll, and two 2016 polls with Spanish Interpreters overestimated Clintons support among Cubans.      

"The polling bias?" They nailed Clinton's percentage, just underestimated Trump's. Probably simply because, like most polls, most all the "undecideds" actually turned out to be Trump voters. There are fewer undecideds this year, including in this poll, which matches the 2016 exit poll pretty close. That's probably the reason for the discrepancy, not "polling bias."

Yes.  If your poll is +11 too far to the Democrats, you have a polling bias.  Not saying they aren't doing the poll in good faith.  I agree with you that the undecided voters are lower than 2016 (3-5%), but it was just 6% in 2016.  Another 6% of the 2016 Univision poll supported Jill Stein (2%) and Gary Johnson (4%).  

However, 35% of people polled approve of Donald Trump, and the demographics that are certain or probable to vote are more likely to belong to demographics that Trump does better with in regards to approval and vote.  Leading every other group by 10%, 58% of South Americans have already voted, and this looks to be Trumps best demographic other than GOP voters.   They are also more likely to vote.  Additionally, Trump is doing better with College and some College voters, and they are also more likely to vote or have already voted.  From my perspective in Florida, Trump is looking good, and if he can bring out his base in Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Duval,  that's a rap.  
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Hollywood
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2020, 03:03:02 PM »

Wikipedia says 64% of Cuban-Americans are in Florida. Beyond that I got nothing.  Are non-Florida Cuban Americans maybe less conservative than Florida Cuban-Americans for some reason?

Yes.  The Cuban Americans in NY, NJ, and CA definitely hold different values than Floridian Cubans, and they comprise of many young Cubans that move out of the state.  Older Cubans are more likely to be conservative, and never leave the state of Florida.   
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