Univision: Biden+5 in AZ, +3 in FL, +5 in PA, Trump+3 in TX | Biden+41 nationwide among Latinos

[The Mikado]

The amount of Latino support for Trump on sites like IG is staggering. I think people will be in for a surprise.

The thing about statements like this is that we literally have a very good idea how Latinos voted in recent elections because of things like voter files and precinct data etc.  And they consistently vote way *more* for Democrats than most polls show not less.  These Latino Decision polls tend to be much closer to accurate than most other ones.

So unless you're saying this massive shift has all happened post-2018, whatever you're seeing on Instagram just isn't very representative of overall trends.

Worth pointing out that 25-30% of the voting population of a group like Hispanics is MILLIONS of people. It's part of the perspective problem. Shadows might well be right that he's seeing insane numbers of Hispanic Trump supporters online, and that'd not be inconsistent at all with Trump getting ~30% of the Hispanic vote.

Hillary Clinton got 37% of the white vote in 2016, and it wasn't exactly hard to find white Clinton supporters.

[tagimaucia]

How did they do in 2016?

2016 Poll: +48% Clinton (67-19%)

2016 Exit Polls: +38% Clinton (66-28%)

From a Florida perspective, I cannot fathom a way that this poll is bad for Trump given the polling bias.  In 2016, Clinton did 7 points better among Hispanics in Florida than Biden is doing in this poll, and two 2016 polls with Spanish Interpreters overestimated Clintons support among Cubans.      

If there's a single thing that people on this forum need to understand that they don't, its that exit polls are *very* incorrect about lots of things.  National exit polls showed that Hillary won Latinos by 38 points, but people who have actually analyzed voter files + precinct data think she won them by more like 46.

Exit polls do lots of other things very badly too: they constantly overestimate the size of the youth vote, always show democrats doing several points better among whites than they actually do, etc.  You shouldn't take them as gospel!

[Rand]

Joe Jose Biden

[TopShelfGoal]

Like those AZ/FL numbers. Would like PA to be closer to 7 but it's not bad. TX seems reasonable.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I don't believe their numbers.

It is very impressive and convincing the way you present your argument for why we should not believe their numbers. This should serve as a model for future posters that can be referred to as an example of sound reasoning.

[tagimaucia]

Their Texas results are wonky.  The results by race don't add up to the topline at all unless the vote is 65-70% white, which is way too high.

[Tintrlvr]

How did they do in 2016?

2016 Poll: +48% Clinton (67-19%)

2016 Exit Polls: +38% Clinton (66-28%)

From a Florida perspective, I cannot fathom a way that this poll is bad for Trump given the polling bias.  In 2016, Clinton did 7 points better among Hispanics in Florida than Biden is doing in this poll, and two 2016 polls with Spanish Interpreters overestimated Clintons support among Cubans.      

"The polling bias?" They nailed Clinton's percentage, just underestimated Trump's. Probably simply because, like most polls, most all the "undecideds" actually turned out to be Trump voters. There are fewer undecideds this year, including in this poll, which matches the 2016 exit poll pretty close. That's probably the reason for the discrepancy, not "polling bias."

Also, exit polls are just as crappy at measuring Latino voting patterns as regular polls, but actually worse because they are massaged by news outlets to fit the actual results in ways that can result in obviously incorrect numbers among sub-groups. Exit polling should never be taken as the definitive determination of how sub-groups voted.

[Hollywood]

How did they do in 2016?

2016 Poll: +48% Clinton (67-19%)

2016 Exit Polls: +38% Clinton (66-28%)

From a Florida perspective, I cannot fathom a way that this poll is bad for Trump given the polling bias.  In 2016, Clinton did 7 points better among Hispanics in Florida than Biden is doing in this poll, and two 2016 polls with Spanish Interpreters overestimated Clintons support among Cubans.      

"The polling bias?" They nailed Clinton's percentage, just underestimated Trump's. Probably simply because, like most polls, most all the "undecideds" actually turned out to be Trump voters. There are fewer undecideds this year, including in this poll, which matches the 2016 exit poll pretty close. That's probably the reason for the discrepancy, not "polling bias."

Yes.  If your poll is +11 too far to the Democrats, you have a polling bias.  Not saying they aren't doing the poll in good faith.  I agree with you that the undecided voters are lower than 2016 (3-5%), but it was just 6% in 2016.  Another 6% of the 2016 Univision poll supported Jill Stein (2%) and Gary Johnson (4%).  

However, 35% of people polled approve of Donald Trump, and the demographics that are certain or probable to vote are more likely to belong to demographics that Trump does better with in regards to approval and vote.  Leading every other group by 10%, 58% of South Americans have already voted, and this looks to be Trumps best demographic other than GOP voters.   They are also more likely to vote.  Additionally, Trump is doing better with College and some College voters, and they are also more likely to vote or have already voted.  From my perspective in Florida, Trump is looking good, and if he can bring out his base in Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Duval,  that's a rap.  

[tagimaucia]

Wikipedia says 64% of Cuban-Americans are in Florida. Beyond that I got nothing.  Are non-Florida Cuban Americans maybe less conservative than Florida Cuban-Americans for some reason?

[Hollywood]

Wikipedia says 64% of Cuban-Americans are in Florida. Beyond that I got nothing.  Are non-Florida Cuban Americans maybe less conservative than Florida Cuban-Americans for some reason?

Yes.  The Cuban Americans in NY, NJ, and CA definitely hold different values than Floridian Cubans, and they comprise of many young Cubans that move out of the state.  Older Cubans are more likely to be conservative, and never leave the state of Florida.   

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Wikipedia says 64% of Cuban-Americans are in Florida. Beyond that I got nothing.  Are non-Florida Cuban Americans maybe less conservative than Florida Cuban-Americans for some reason?

You forgot to quote me.

I don't know, I guess so. There is a sizable amount of Cuban-Americans in New Jersey and they seem to be way more friendly to Democrats than Florida Cubans. Sen. Bob Menendez and Rep. Albio Sires are New Jersey Cubans and both are Democrats.

So, yeah I don't know.

[ProudModerate2]

But will Latinos/Hispanics help Biden take Florida?
That is the million-dollar question.

[Figueira]

Joe Jose Biden

They got rid of José Biden along with Giotto Biden and Ming Biden.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not sure how I feel about those TX numbers. I wanna say they're off, but "inherent bias" and all that

[wbrocks67]

Their Texas results are wonky.  The results by race don't add up to the topline at all unless the vote is 65-70% white, which is way too high.

Yeah, Beto got +35 among Latinos. If Biden is nearly +40, then I don't think he's losing unless it's way too white.

[Ferguson97]

The amount of Latino support for Trump on sites like IG is staggering. I think people will be in for a surprise.

Lmao using instagram to gauge a candidate's popularity

[Badger]

Biden up 67-26 with 2 others

Mexican - Biden +46
Puerto Rican - Biden +49
Cuban - Biden +15
Dominican - Biden +45
South American - Biden +19
Central American  - Biden +47

If Biden is leading Cuban voters nationally by 15%, how does that affect Florida? Doesn't 70% of all Cuban-Americans live in Florida alone?

I'm surprised by those numbers as well. I suppose Cubans in NJ, the second biggest community, might throw the numbers off as IIRC they vote overwhelmingly Democratic in margins similar to NJ/NY Puerto Ricans and Central Americans.

Even with that and growing Democratic support among younger FL Cubans, though, +15 among all Cuban-American voters seems optimistic.