ME - Colby College: Gideon +3 | Golden +25
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  ME - Colby College: Gideon +3 | Golden +25
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Author Topic: ME - Colby College: Gideon +3 | Golden +25  (Read 1726 times)
VAR
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« on: October 28, 2020, 05:06:13 AM »
« edited: October 28, 2020, 05:21:31 AM by VARepublican »

Gideon +3 pre-rounding.

SEN:
Gideon 47%
Collins 43%

CD-02:
Golden 56%
Crafts 31%

PRES: 51-38 Biden

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JcpvID4F9MyFxovFcWd_Mm8oP4W4OKi-w2kGyCxZaVU/edit?usp=sharing

Portland Press Herald says itís 46.6-43.4 Gideon.

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2020, 05:13:20 AM »

Do they mention how second choices go?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2020, 05:25:38 AM »


They only did 2nd choices (not 3rd, 4th, etc.) and wasn't really instructive - second choice went Savage 37%, Linn 16%, Gideon 7%, Collins 7%
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Astatine
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2020, 06:25:08 AM »

Lisa Savage is at 5 %, Max Linn at 2 %.

Assuming the majority of Savage voters will rank Gideon as 2nd choice (Savage encouraged her supporters to vote that way), Gideon has it in the bag.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2020, 07:18:01 AM »

Would like to see Gideon with a larger lead and post-rounding numbers, but I'll take it. Golden seems very safe at this point though.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2020, 07:40:03 AM »
« Edited: October 28, 2020, 08:24:39 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Lisa Savage seems to active in the comments of the article this was posted in if anyone here has any questions. Tongue

They've polled second choices for the Senate race but not compiled results with RCV and not even compiled crosstabs for second choice by first choice preference. Thankfully, they wrote a bit on it in this article: https://www.colby.edu/news/2020/10/28/poll-shows-statistical-dead-heat-between-collins-and-gideon/

Colby College
October 21-25
Changes with September 17-23

Statewide
879 likely voters
MoE: 3.3%

First Round
Gideon +3% pre-rounding
Gideon 47% (+2)
Collins 43% (+2)
Savage 5% (n/c)
Linn 2% (-3)
Unsure 4% (-2)

Second Round (only Savage votes reallocated)
Their September 17-23 release had this to say on RCV:
Quote
However, their second choice was mostly scattered, with Gideon and Collins each netting about two percentage points.
6% remained undecided.

This release actually specifies the way Savage voters break (and includes voters who didn't bother to rank a second choice), so I'll extrapolate below.

Gideon +5
Gideon 49%
Collins 44%
Linn 3%
Undecided 4%

On other voters, it says this:
Quote
Using a ranked-choice process, the poll found that Lisa Savage voters selected Gideon as their second choice roughly 51 percent of the time, Max Linn 29 percent of the time, and Susan Collins 13 percent of the time. Linn voters, a much smaller cohort, cast their votes in a less consistent way.

ďGiven the closeness of the race, and the fact that minor-party candidates will probably net about seven percent of the overall vote, itís likely the ranked-choice process will matter,Ē said Shea. ďIn our opinion, this may help Gideon more than Collins.Ē

ME-01
426 likely voters

Pingree 58%
Allen 31%
Unsure 11%

ME-02
453 likely voters

Golden 56% (n/c)
Crafts 31% (-2)
Unsure 13% (+2)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2020, 08:14:30 AM »

Yeah, if Savage voters are picking Gideon 51% of the time compared to Collins 13%, Collins is cooked.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2020, 10:14:32 AM »

Underperforming Biden by 10 isn't great for Gideon, but RCV probably means that she can afford to finish 1% of so behind Collins in the first round. Still, we might not know the winner of this race for a while.
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NYDem
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2020, 10:17:47 AM »

Tilt-D at best for Golden, this district is trending R, and as we all know candidate quality doesnít matter anymore.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2020, 10:57:03 AM »

Not good enough for Gideon. I guess ticket splitting in ME isn't completely dead. Out of the clearest path to 50 seats this one worries me most, including NC. Collins could very well survive, even though I have her as an underdog. She will definitely do better than Trump.

Golden is safe.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2020, 10:58:21 AM »

Not good enough for Gideon. I guess ticket splitting in ME isn't completely dead. Out of the clearest path to 50 seats this one worries me most, including NC. Collins could very well survive, even though I have her as an underdog. She will definitely do better than Trump.

Golden is safe.

Gideon has never not led a public poll. Ticket splitting was always going to happen in Maine. We've consistently had RCV helping Gideon.
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2020, 11:00:25 AM »

Golden landsliding Biden to the finish line in ME-02
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2020, 11:05:22 AM »

Collins at 43% can't be good for her
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2020, 11:46:41 AM »
« Edited: October 28, 2020, 12:17:16 PM by SenatorCouzens »

Good to see a poll here. Given the localism that still exists in Maine elections, some failure in past polls detecting the extent of Republican support in ME-02, and Susan Collins' history in this state, a Collins upset would SURPRISE but not SHOCK me (in the way that Gardner winning in Colorado would make me fall out of my chair).

And while often dismissed by the political junkies, I actually think the vote against Barrett could meaningfully bolster Collins independent image at the 11th hour.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2020, 12:53:08 PM »



And while often dismissed by the political junkies, I actually think the vote against Barrett could meaningfully bolster Collins independent image at the 11th hour.

LMAO!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2020, 01:15:39 PM »



And while often dismissed by the political junkies, I actually think the vote against Barrett could meaningfully bolster Collins independent image at the 11th hour.

LMAO!

That's not such an absurd idea. Earlier polls suggested her stance had a neutral effect on her favourability rating, but I suspect that would be more likely than not to amount to a boost among the voters she needs to win over and some extra disappointment amongst Republicans who are probably going to end up voting for her anyway, even if they only give her their second preference.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2020, 01:20:11 PM »

Good lord, Golden's numbers are astounding.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2020, 02:58:58 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2020, 03:08:01 PM by SenatorCouzens »



And while often dismissed by the political junkies, I actually think the vote against Barrett could meaningfully bolster Collins independent image at the 11th hour.

LMAO!

That's not such an absurd idea. Earlier polls suggested her stance had a neutral effect on her favourability rating, but I suspect that would be more likely than not to amount to a boost among the voters she needs to win over and some extra disappointment amongst Republicans who are probably going to end up voting for her anyway, even if they only give her their second preference.

That's the way I see it too. I think it only helps her? But there's a good chance not


And while often dismissed by the political junkies, I actually think the vote against Barrett could meaningfully bolster Collins independent image at the 11th hour.

LMAO!
That's the way I see it too. I think it only helps her? But there's a good chance not in a meaningful way.

As for the "LMAO!", the local news headline is simply Collins votes against Trump's Supreme Court nominee. Many of these voters -- in Maine -- aren't rage-tweeting about Collins being a Republican puppet or thinking about Senate whip count in a sophisticated manner. Many of them couldn't even tell you how many justices are on the Supreme Court.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2020, 03:05:28 PM »



And while often dismissed by the political junkies, I actually think the vote against Barrett could meaningfully bolster Collins independent image at the 11th hour.

LMAO!

That's not such an absurd idea. Earlier polls suggested her stance had a neutral effect on her favourability rating, but I suspect that would be more likely than not to amount to a boost among the voters she needs to win over and some extra disappointment amongst Republicans who are probably going to end up voting for her anyway, even if they only give her their second preference.

That's the way I see it too. I think it only helps her? But there's a good chance not in a meaningful way.

As for the "LMAO!", the local news headline is simply Collins votes against Trump's Supreme Court nominee. Many of these voters -- in Maine -- aren't rage-tweeting about Collins being a Republican puppet or thinking about Senate whip count in a sophisticated manner. Many of them couldn't even tell you how many justices are on the Supreme Court.


Certainly true, although this probably does help to amplify the determination of anti-Collins partisans to vote her out of office.
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« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2020, 06:31:22 PM »

I'm a little bit worried about Sara Gideon. I hope that Biden will be able to drag her over the line or that this poll is off lol.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2020, 06:45:01 PM »

Yay! A Maine Senate poll!

Collins' desperate vote against Amy Corndog Barrett isn't going to save her. It's too little, too late and can't make up for how much more impactful her voting against Kavanaugh would have been: at least then maybe Flake, Manchin, and Murkowski would have followed suit. That was truly her gravest mistake (I think people have mostly forgotten about her cowardice with the Trump conviction vote.).

Now, of course, Gideon could be doing better, but I can't help but notice that Collins is falling into the same trap as other Republicans running this year in not being able to poll over 43% or so just like James, Tillis, and Trump. Being stuck there has not been a good sign so far for any of those candidates. I expect her to finally lose in the end.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2020, 07:01:36 PM »

I'm a little bit worried about Sara Gideon. I hope that Biden will be able to drag her over the line or that this poll is off lol.

Gideon has never not been leading in a single public poll. She's +5 here after RCV. Collins is stuck at 43. Collins is getting no crossover support in any poll.
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« Reply #22 on: October 28, 2020, 07:14:22 PM »

I'm a little bit worried about Sara Gideon. I hope that Biden will be able to drag her over the line or that this poll is off lol.

Gideon has never not been leading in a single public poll. She's +5 here after RCV. Collins is stuck at 43. Collins is getting no crossover support in any poll.
I just think that it's a little too close for comfort.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #23 on: October 28, 2020, 07:16:52 PM »

I'm a little bit worried about Sara Gideon. I hope that Biden will be able to drag her over the line or that this poll is off lol.

Gideon has never not been leading in a single public poll. She's +5 here after RCV. Collins is stuck at 43. Collins is getting no crossover support in any poll.
I just think that it's a little too close for comfort.

That is only because of the fairly serious, left-leaning third-party candidate and the presence of RCV. One of the takes I'm dreading after this election is that Collins would have won without it, when it's probable that Savage would simply have gotten much less support in the first round instead. If you look at results that do adjust for RCV, Gideon's in at least the high upper single digits in terms of margin and often over 50%.

Collins could absolutely win and MESEN is still competitive, but this late in the game, I'd say it's a likely D race.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #24 on: October 28, 2020, 07:37:12 PM »

I still think itís possible that ME only ends up being a single-digit race at the presidential level (this also has Biden +4 in ME-02, for instance), which could make the Senate race closer than expected. Itís definitely not looking good for Collins, but unlike MI, Iím not yet ready to completely write this one off.

Iím not all that worried about Golden becoming entrenched either. His district will be ground zero for any backlash against overreach under a Biden administration/Democratic trifecta, and IMO he got a foretaste of what will happen to his own crossover appeal/broad popularity in a Republican-leaning year with this year's Senate race. I donít think he survives 2022 even if Democrats hold the House and itís more of a neutral year.
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