IA-RABA: Biden+4

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

All of these polls are indicating absolutely huge swings among northern whites. SD, MT, IA, even the Gravis polls if you want to believe those ... the 2008 Obama voters are coming home.

Beautiful 😢 Welcome back northern whites!

[forza nocta]

People have been sleeping on Iowa for some reason. For me, its been one of the more interesting states to watch the polls in. Biden has been way higher than Hillary in vote share in these Iowa polls, if not up in a lot of them + he was tied at 47 in the last Gold Standard™ Selzer poll, where in Hillary’s case, she was never above 40% in their polls... We’ll see what Selzer says this weekend but I feel good about Iowa (which makes me confident in the midwest as a whole)

[anthonyjg]

In one week we find out: just how stupid are the people of Iowa?

[Buzz]

I’m gonna be quite pissed if Iowa decides to go from Trump +9 to Biden

[redjohn]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

This is undoubtedly possible. Would require some reversion to 2012-type patterns with a 2020 twist, but I can see it.

[South Dakota Democrat]

OOOOOOHHHHHHHH YEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!!

[mijan]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

IA votes left of FL in 88,92,96,2000,04,08,12

[Splash]

I sort of wonder if Trump's anemic standing in Iowa and Wisconsin are were/are being masked by the fact that his opponent was Hillary Clinton in 2016, who was probably even more disliked than he was here. Trump lost the primaries in both states to Ted Cruz in 2016 after all and it never seemed to me like he forged the same "connection" to white voters here that he did in other midwestern states like MN, MI, and PA.

[compucomp]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[South Dakota Democrat]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

This is undoubtedly possible. Would require some reversion to 2012-type patterns with a 2020 twist, but I can see it.

Iowa has historically always been a very swingy state.

It was literally the only state in the country to swing R in 1992 (although Clinton still won it comfortably).

[Liberalrocks]

Good for Trump!

[Blair]

send this to the doomers

[Orwell]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

I'm starting to think we'll see 2012 but with the Dems picking up Arizona and dropping Florida

[Bojack Horseman]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

We just went from a wave to a tsunami.

[Alben Barkley]

I sort of wonder if Trump's anemic standing in Iowa and Wisconsin are were/are being masked by the fact that his opponent was Hillary Clinton in 2016, who was probably even more disliked than he was here. Trump lost the primaries in both states to Ted Cruz in 2016 after all and it never seemed to me like he forged the same "connection" to white voters here that he did in other midwestern states like MN, MI, and PA.

He did win Wisconsin with fewer votes than Romney got.

[One Term Floridian]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

This is undoubtedly possible. Would require some reversion to 2012-type patterns with a 2020 twist, but I can see it.

Iowa has historically always been a very swingy state.

It was literally the only state in the country to swing R in 1992 (although Clinton still won it comfortably).

Because Dukakis probably had to close on a house there and get into some #retailpolitics to get that gigantic sweep in 88 while going down hard practically everywhere else.

[Splash]

I sort of wonder if Trump's anemic standing in Iowa and Wisconsin are were/are being masked by the fact that his opponent was Hillary Clinton in 2016, who was probably even more disliked than he was here. Trump lost the primaries in both states to Ted Cruz in 2016 after all and it never seemed to me like he forged the same "connection" to white voters here that he did in other midwestern states like MN, MI, and PA.

He did win Wisconsin with fewer votes than Romney got.

I guess this could have something to do with it too

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1321203338021654528

[tagimaucia]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

This is undoubtedly possible. Would require some reversion to 2012-type patterns with a 2020 twist, but I can see it.

Iowa has historically always been a very swingy state.

It was literally the only state in the country to swing R in 1992 (although Clinton still won it comfortably).

It also has (I believe) the only Obama(2012) +20 / Trump + 20 county in the country (Howard County).

IIRC, Dukakis did well in 1988 because of the farm crisis.  Reagan also fell from a 13 point win there in 1980 to only a 7 point win in 1984.

[psychprofessor]

Now I'm really curious about Ohio because it won't be far behind Iowa.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

This is undoubtedly possible. Would require some reversion to 2012-type patterns with a 2020 twist, but I can see it.

Iowa has historically always been a very swingy state.

It was literally the only state in the country to swing R in 1992 (although Clinton still won it comfortably).

It also has (I believe) the only Obama(2012) +20 / Trump + 20 county in the country (Howard County).

IIRC, Dukakis did well in 1988 because of the farm crisis.  Reagan also fell from a 13 point win there in 1980 to only a 7 point win in 1984.

Yup.  Howard was the largest 2012-->2016 county swing in the nation -- an American "Bassetlaw" for my UK peeps.  

[mijan]

I’m gonna be quite pissed if Iowa decides to go from Trump +9 to Biden

I am afraid that, you will be pissed.
56% Iowa Dems have already voted, compare to only 35% IA R have voted so far.
60% IA will be early voting turn out.
R needs to win election day by 68-30, if Independents voted evenly in early voting.
If independent early voters are Dem leaning , like 55-45 or 60-40, which is the most likely scenario as independent IA early voters are coming disproportionately from Polk,Scott,Lin, Johnson ,Clinton county then R needs to win E day vote by 72-26 , and it must be huge .

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

For WHO13
October 21-24
693 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with September 23-26

Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 46% (n/c)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Not sure 1% (-3)

[SnowLabrador]

Good numbers! Hopefully Ernst loses too.

[Rand]

Found all the blue avatars.

[MillennialModerate]

B/C pollster let’s relax a little bit