IA-RABA: Biden+4

[Landslide Lyndon]

For WHO13
October 21-24
693 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with September 23-26

Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 46% (+2)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Not sure 1% (-3)

It should show no change for Trump.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

B/C pollster let’s relax a little bit

Ok, doomer!

[OSR stands with Israel]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

This is undoubtedly possible. Would require some reversion to 2012-type patterns with a 2020 twist, but I can see it.

Iowa has historically always been a very swingy state.

It was literally the only state in the country to swing R in 1992 (although Clinton still won it comfortably).

Only in recent history, but not always. Iowa was a solid Republican state prior to 1988 voting Republican all but 5 times from 1856-1984(It only voted Democratic in 1912, 1932, 1936, 1948 and 1964)

[Badger]

I’m gonna be quite pissed if Iowa decides to go from Trump +9 to Biden

I am afraid that, you will be pissed.
56% Iowa Dems have already voted, compare to only 35% IA R have voted so far.
60% IA will be early voting turn out.
R needs to win election day by 68-30, if Independents voted evenly in early voting.
If independent early voters are Dem leaning , like 55-45 or 60-40, which is the most likely scenario as independent IA early voters are coming disproportionately from Polk,Scott,Lin, Johnson ,Clinton county then R needs to win E day vote by 72-26 , and it must be huge .

Honestly, those election day numbers seem almost doable for Republicans.

[South Dakota Democrat]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

This is undoubtedly possible. Would require some reversion to 2012-type patterns with a 2020 twist, but I can see it.

Iowa has historically always been a very swingy state.

It was literally the only state in the country to swing R in 1992 (although Clinton still won it comfortably).

Only in recent history, but not always. Iowa was a solid Republican state prior to 1988 voting Republican all but 5 times from 1856-1984(It only voted Democratic in 1912, 1932, 1936, 1948 and 1964)

5 times is kind of a lot though.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

This is undoubtedly possible. Would require some reversion to 2012-type patterns with a 2020 twist, but I can see it.

Iowa has historically always been a very swingy state.

It was literally the only state in the country to swing R in 1992 (although Clinton still won it comfortably).

Only in recent history, but not always. Iowa was a solid Republican state prior to 1988 voting Republican all but 5 times from 1856-1984(It only voted Democratic in 1912, 1932, 1936, 1948 and 1964)

5 times is kind of a lot though.

Not really , that's 5 times out of 32 elections from 1856-1984 which is not a lot at all. By comparison Kansas from 1864-1984 voted Democratic 6 out of 30 times which is less frequent than the amount of times Iowa votes Democratic in that time span.

[Buzz]

Iowa just flipped to Biden on 538.

Hopefully all the swing states do.  The more opportunities for Nate Silver to eat humble pie the better.

[Badger]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

This is undoubtedly possible. Would require some reversion to 2012-type patterns with a 2020 twist, but I can see it.

Iowa has historically always been a very swingy state.

It was literally the only state in the country to swing R in 1992 (although Clinton still won it comfortably).

Only in recent history, but not always. Iowa was a solid Republican state prior to 1988 voting Republican all but 5 times from 1856-1984(It only voted Democratic in 1912, 1932, 1936, 1948 and 1964)

5 times is kind of a lot though.

Not really , that's 5 times out of 32 elections from 1856-1984 which is not a lot at all. By comparison Kansas from 1864-1984 voted Democratic 6 out of 30 times which is less frequent than the amount of times Iowa votes Democratic in that time span.

5 out of 18 elections between 1912 and 1984 doesn't seem to prove a lot, especially when even in 84 Reagan only narrowly carried Iowa and Tom Harkin was elected to the Senate that year.

Citing Iowa as being solidly Republican from the mid through late 19th century is about as relevant today as Mississippi's history of being solidly Democratic during that same time frame.

[Xing]

Wasn’t this the same poll that didn’t weight by education and found Greenfield up 12? Forgive my skepticism.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs love to forget Ernst is in the same seat Tom Harkins was in and Tom Harkin had longevity like Robert Torricelli in the Senate. Harkin and Torricelli, both were defenders of Clinton during Lewinsky. Chet Culver served as Gov too. IA is going the way of CO. That's why Greenfield has lead in 6/9 polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wasn’t this the same poll that didn’t weight by education and found Greenfield up 12? Forgive my skepticism.

3 termer D Tom Harkin says hi when Ernst took his seat after he retired in 2014

Watch him on You tube during Monica Lewinsky hearings when he along with Torricelli defended Bill Clinton

[DrScholl]

What I believe is happening is that Des Moines metro is going to vote like other suburban areas will and that Eastern Iowa will swing back Democratic to an extent. Iowa was never safe Trump and it is a place where traditional Democratic ideals resound.

[Alben Barkley]

B/C pollster let’s relax a little bit

A+ pollsters Monmouth and NYT/Siena also have Biden ahead in IA.

A bunch of highly rated pollsters have it close/Biden ahead.

Not an aberration.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just remember Xing said KY Gov was Bevin to lose like Icespear and Beshear won, he is saying about Greenfield chances. He won't admit it

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Iowa is more elastic than a rubber band.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

This is undoubtedly possible. Would require some reversion to 2012-type patterns with a 2020 twist, but I can see it.

Iowa has historically always been a very swingy state.

It was literally the only state in the country to swing R in 1992 (although Clinton still won it comfortably).

Only in recent history, but not always. Iowa was a solid Republican state prior to 1988 voting Republican all but 5 times from 1856-1984(It only voted Democratic in 1912, 1932, 1936, 1948 and 1964)

5 times is kind of a lot though.

Not really , that's 5 times out of 32 elections from 1856-1984 which is not a lot at all. By comparison Kansas from 1864-1984 voted Democratic 6 out of 30 times which is less frequent than the amount of times Iowa votes Democratic in that time span.

5 out of 18 elections between 1912 and 1984 doesn't seem to prove a lot, especially when even in 84 Reagan only narrowly carried Iowa and Tom Harkin was elected to the Senate that year.

Citing Iowa as being solidly Republican from the mid through late 19th century is about as relevant today as Mississippi's history of being solidly Democratic during that same time frame.

My point is Iowa became a swingy state after the farm crises and beginning in the 1988 election so not historically one

[Badger]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

This is undoubtedly possible. Would require some reversion to 2012-type patterns with a 2020 twist, but I can see it.

Iowa has historically always been a very swingy state.

It was literally the only state in the country to swing R in 1992 (although Clinton still won it comfortably).

Only in recent history, but not always. Iowa was a solid Republican state prior to 1988 voting Republican all but 5 times from 1856-1984(It only voted Democratic in 1912, 1932, 1936, 1948 and 1964)

5 times is kind of a lot though.

Not really , that's 5 times out of 32 elections from 1856-1984 which is not a lot at all. By comparison Kansas from 1864-1984 voted Democratic 6 out of 30 times which is less frequent than the amount of times Iowa votes Democratic in that time span.

5 out of 18 elections between 1912 and 1984 doesn't seem to prove a lot, especially when even in 84 Reagan only narrowly carried Iowa and Tom Harkin was elected to the Senate that year.

Citing Iowa as being solidly Republican from the mid through late 19th century is about as relevant today as Mississippi's history of being solidly Democratic during that same time frame.

My point is Iowa became a swingy state after the farm crises and beginning in the 1988 election so not historically one

Well, yes, but IA voted at or slightly more Democratic than the country for a quarter century even AFTER the farm crisis pulled it hard left in 84 and 88. So again, it had been at least a purple state for about 30 years before Trump won big there 4 years ago. That's much more relevant IMHO than the fact it voted reliably Republican during the Nixon years.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It'd honestly be kind of hilarious if Biden takes Iowa but loses Florida.

This is undoubtedly possible. Would require some reversion to 2012-type patterns with a 2020 twist, but I can see it.

Iowa has historically always been a very swingy state.

It was literally the only state in the country to swing R in 1992 (although Clinton still won it comfortably).

Only in recent history, but not always. Iowa was a solid Republican state prior to 1988 voting Republican all but 5 times from 1856-1984(It only voted Democratic in 1912, 1932, 1936, 1948 and 1964)

5 times is kind of a lot though.

Not really , that's 5 times out of 32 elections from 1856-1984 which is not a lot at all. By comparison Kansas from 1864-1984 voted Democratic 6 out of 30 times which is less frequent than the amount of times Iowa votes Democratic in that time span.

5 out of 18 elections between 1912 and 1984 doesn't seem to prove a lot, especially when even in 84 Reagan only narrowly carried Iowa and Tom Harkin was elected to the Senate that year.

Citing Iowa as being solidly Republican from the mid through late 19th century is about as relevant today as Mississippi's history of being solidly Democratic during that same time frame.

My point is Iowa became a swingy state after the farm crises and beginning in the 1988 election so not historically one

Well, yes, but IA voted at or slightly more Democratic than the country for a quarter century even AFTER the farm crisis pulled it hard left in 84 and 88. So again, it had been at least a purple state for about 30 years before Trump won big there 4 years ago. That's much more relevant IMHO than the fact it voted reliably Republican during the Nixon years.

for 2020 you are right, as I was just addressing the historical part

[forsythvoter]

The Wisconsin of 2020...is Iowa

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

RABA didn't have a great track record in 2016, but it's clear Trump made a big mistake pulling out of Iowa.

IA 2020 is going to be the IN of 2008.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ugh If Ernst loses we lose the senate unless John James can pull of a miracle

[Roll Roons]

RABA didn't have a great track record in 2016, but it's clear Trump made a big mistake pulling out of Iowa.

IA 2020 is going to be the IN of 2008.

Indiana was a solidly red state that happened to go blue in a fluke because Obama won big nationwide. Iowa is a consistently swingy state that swung hard to Trump and now appears to be coming back to Biden. Let's see what happens after Trump is gone.

[Figueira]

RABA didn't have a great track record in 2016, but it's clear Trump made a big mistake pulling out of Iowa.

IA 2020 is going to be the IN of 2008.

Indiana was a solidly red state that happened to go blue in a fluke because Obama won big nationwide. Iowa is a consistently swingy state that swung hard to Trump and now appears to be coming back to Biden. Let's see what happens after Trump is gone.

It seems like people are goldfish regarding Iowa. I recently saw a news article calling Iowa a "traditionally Republican state".

Still, would be great to have it back.

[Sirius_]

RABA didn't have a great track record in 2016, but it's clear Trump made a big mistake pulling out of Iowa.

IA 2020 is going to be the IN of 2008.

Indiana was a solidly red state that happened to go blue in a fluke because Obama won big nationwide. Iowa is a consistently swingy state that swung hard to Trump and now appears to be coming back to Biden. Let's see what happens after Trump is gone.

It seems like people are goldfish regarding Iowa. I recently saw a news article calling Iowa a "traditionally Republican state".

Still, would be great to have it back.

Everyone went on this whole Safe R Iowa (and Ohio) train after Trump won it and are just realizing that Iowa (and Ohio) is, in fact, a swing state. Its an elastic state, doesn't make sense why people declared into to be in the R column after 1 election when Iowa has a history of swinging all the time. They also seemed to not even see the house results from Iowa in 2018. I've seen articles saying "is Iowa a swing state again", like no duh it is, it literally has 3/4 democratic reps in the house!

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Iowa President by RABA Research on 2020-10-24

Summary: D: 50%, R: 46%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details