PPP-MT: Bullock+1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R.

.

Lean D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But MT Treasurer and Xing told me it was Likely R, not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I want to believe, but the recalled 2016 vote is only Trump +15 rather than Trump +21.

A Dem election passed after 2016, it's called 2018, Tester is backing Bullock and he beat Rosendale MT in a midterm

This isn't about MT, both Indy Rep or MT Treasurer and Xing have been saying all year long Daines was a shoe in, they are wrong just like IA and he still has IA leaning R after 6/9 polls showed Greenfield ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Republicans have done a great job of relentlessly nationalizing this race and going scorched earth on Bullock, there’s been a lot of coordinated campaigning on the Republican side (and increasingly on the Democratic side as well, albeit to a lesser extent), and Daines has been fairly vocal about his support for Trump, so it’s no surprise that there’s far less split-ticket voting this year than in 2016. People forget that Trump's approval in the 2018 exit poll was only +3 (51/48) when Tester won by 3 (it was probably 1-2 points higher or so but still pretty close to that), and it’s not like he’s gotten more popular since then. Trump’s certainly going to win MT by more than 2 unless I’m completely underestimating how fast the state is transitioning into the next CO, but the range of outcomes in the Senate race is fairly narrow (I’d put it at Bullock +2 -- Daines +4 at this point).

My final predictions (maps coming soon):

MT-PRES: Safe R, Trump +7
MT-SEN: PTU, Daines +2
MT-GOV: Tilt/Lean R, Gianforte +3.5
MT-AL: Tilt R, Rosendale +3

It could be a weirder night than even I am expecting, so we’ll see what happens. It admittedly does feel weird predicting a Republican win in a very close Montana race, but hey, there’s a first time for everything. You could make a case that MT-AL 2017 is Trump's best-case scenario at this point, and I wouldn’t be that shocked if he matched GF's margin in that race (R+5.5), but I’d be stunned if it was closer than that (and I really don’t think it will be).

Ok but Bullock will win