PPP-MT: Bullock+1
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  PPP-MT: Bullock+1
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Author Topic: PPP-MT: Bullock+1  (Read 865 times)
Western Democrat
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« on: October 27, 2020, 03:34:22 PM »

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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2020, 03:35:15 PM »

nope
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2020, 03:36:13 PM »

Safe R.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2020, 03:36:36 PM »

.

Lean D
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(Temporary) Florida Man Xing
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2020, 03:37:00 PM »

Bullock needs to overperform Biden by more than 3.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2020, 03:37:50 PM »

Bullock is going to finish strong pounding hard all the way, no stops, no distractions.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2020, 03:39:08 PM »

But MT Treasurer and Xing told me it was Likely R, not.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2020, 03:39:35 PM »

One of these numbers is incorrect
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2020, 03:43:54 PM »

Bullock is going to finish strong pounding hard all the way, no stops, no distractions.

MT is a very lucky girl
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VARep
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2020, 03:44:46 PM »

The fact that Bullock is overperforming Bidenís % by only 1 is pretty embarrassing.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2020, 04:00:17 PM »

You guys know that itís not some iron law of politics that the same gap between Biden and Bullock will always exist right? If Biden is gaining in the state then itís not surprising that most of his new supporters will be formerly Trump/Bullock or Undecided/Bullock swing voters.
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2020, 04:01:25 PM »

You guys know that itís not some iron law of politics that the same gap between Biden and Bullock will always exist right? If Biden is gaining in the state then itís not surprising that most of his new supporters will be formerly Trump/Bullock or Undecided/Bullock swing voters.

Yes this is a possibility, but I will need more polls to confirm this or I will remain skeptical lol
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2020, 04:05:45 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2020, 04:09:18 PM by ProgressiveModerate »

At least he's leading, but I wish he was overperforming Biden by more. Part of this could be a large swing towards Biden in MT at the top of the ticket.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2020, 04:07:04 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2020, 04:18:01 PM by KaiserDave »

Ugh Woodbury recommended my post

I have to travel to a Himalayan spring and cleanse myself for 5 moons
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Mr. Raymond Reddington
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2020, 04:16:18 PM »

While the presidential numbers are questionable, senate could make sense. Bullock has definitely an almost 50/50 chance of winning.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2020, 04:21:39 PM »

While the presidential numbers are questionable, senate could make sense. Bullock has definitely an almost 50/50 chance of winning.
Yeah if I had to bet money Iíd still probably go with Daines but MT Dems and Bullock definitely know how to grind out close races in this state.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2020, 04:56:54 PM »

For Protect Our Care (D)
October 26-27
886 voters
MoE: 3.3%
Changes with October 9-10 poll (not for partisan sponsor)

Bullock 48% (n/c)
Daines 47% (-1)
Not sure 6% (+2)
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2020, 05:02:59 PM »

I want to believe, but the recalled 2016 vote is only Trump +15 rather than Trump +21.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2020, 05:16:06 PM »

I want to believe, but the recalled 2016 vote is only Trump +15 rather than Trump +21.
A Dem election passed after 2016, it's called 2018, Tester is backing Bullock and he beat Rosendale MT in a midterm

This isn't about MT, both Indy Rep or MT Treasurer and Xing have been saying all year long Daines was a shoe in, they are wrong just like IA and he still has IA leaning R after 6/9 polls showed Greenfield ahead
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Pericles
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2020, 06:07:32 PM »

At least he's leading, but I wish he was overperforming Biden by more. Part of this could be a large swing towards Biden in MT at the top of the ticket.

Yeah, it might be that a lot of the people who would usually be Trump-Bullock voters are now Biden-Bullock voters. Hopefully that's the case and the reduced gap reflects Biden performing well. Otherwise, the Montana Democratic Party dropped the ball this year.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2020, 07:17:47 PM »

The fact that Bullock is overperforming Bidenís % by only 1 is pretty embarrassing.

Why is it that Montana's races seem to be close across the board, but with Republicans still favored? This might be an indicator of how polarization, such as it is, is dictating the context in which Biden's national victory will occur (assuming of course, that it does occur).
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2020, 07:22:23 PM »

Ugh Woodbury recommended my post

I have to travel to a Himalayan spring and cleanse myself for 5 moons

Not good enough. Unfortunately, the penalty for earning a Woodbury recommendation is a permaban. Zero tolerance, no exceptions.

Mods, you know what to do.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2020, 07:23:30 PM »

Ugh Woodbury recommended my post

I have to travel to a Himalayan spring and cleanse myself for 5 moons

Not good enough. Unfortunately, the penalty for earning a Woodbury recommendation is a permaban. Zero tolerance, no exceptions.

Mods, you know what to do.

I understand and accept the consequences.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2020, 07:26:23 PM »

My heart is with you, KaiserDave.

Anyways, I want to believe, but I'll believe it when I see it. Think it flips after both Georgia seats but before SC (cold take, I know).
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #24 on: October 27, 2020, 07:28:03 PM »

I want to believe, but the recalled 2016 vote is only Trump +15 rather than Trump +21.

Ooo good observation. Taking with more of a grain of salt than I was before, maybe to the point my stomach gets a bit uncomfortable, but not enough salt to be deadly. There is reason to think the MT electorate this year will have a lot of non-voters from 2016, because Tester somehow won about 75K more votes the Clinton despite only winning over 7% of Trump voters according to exit polls. I have a hard time seeing someone who voted in 2018 who will not be voting in 2020 unless they went to jail or died.
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