AZ - OHPI: Kelly+5
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  AZ - OHPI: Kelly+5
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Author Topic: AZ - OHPI: Kelly+5  (Read 618 times)
n1240
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« on: October 27, 2020, 01:44:04 PM »

https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/poll-biden-maintains-small-lead-in-arizona/

Kelly 50
McSally 45

10/22-25, 716 LV
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2020, 01:46:41 PM »

Why have Kelly's numbers gone way down the last couple of weeks? Or were the Kelly double digit leads always a fantasy and his numbers are simply coming back down to earth from space or something?
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2020, 01:48:20 PM »

Why have Kelly's numbers gone way down the last couple of weeks? Or were the Kelly double digit leads always a fantasy and his numbers are simply coming back down to earth from space or something?

I doubt Kelly was ever going to win by double digits (I always thought he'd win by 6-7%), and I think McSally might be consolidating *some* of the Trump vote, though obviously not enough, and considering that Trump is down in AZ, even matching Trump's margin probably wouldn't be enough for her.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2020, 01:49:54 PM »

Why have Kelly's numbers gone way down the last couple of weeks? Or were the Kelly double digit leads always a fantasy and his numbers are simply coming back down to earth from space or something?

It really hasn't. Once again, it's just a lack of HQ polls. These ones already date back nearly a month.

Last high quality AZ-Sen polls

Data Orbital: +6
Monmouth +10
Siena/NYT +11
Suffolk +9
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2020, 01:50:15 PM »

Sigh of relief for D's after the gaffe by Kelly's staffer police are pigs, wasn't as bad as Scalias death was good for America by Ted Strickland
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2020, 01:50:18 PM »

MoE: 3.7%
Changes with October 4-8

Kelly 50% (n/c)
McSally 45% (n/c)
Refused 1% (+1 from at 0% but with some voters)
Unsure/undecided 3% (-2)
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2020, 01:50:28 PM »

Why have Kelly's numbers gone way down the last couple of weeks? Or were the Kelly double digit leads always a fantasy and his numbers are simply coming back down to earth from space or something?

I doubt Kelly was ever going to win by double digits (I always thought he'd win by 6-7%), and I think McSally might be consolidating *some* of the Trump vote, though obviously not enough, and considering that Trump is down in AZ, even matching Trump's margin probably wouldn't be enough for her.

Yeah. Agreed with everything
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2020, 11:19:46 PM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by OH Predictive Insights on 2020-10-25

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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