Will Trump get another 100k margin out of Montgomery County?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think it's a close call, and lean yes, but only because of a turnout spike here. I think it'll end somewhere around 260-270k total votes, and Biden will get around 30% here.

[Sol]

Which one?

[ExSky]

I say no. Biden will close the gap to 90k and the percentage gap to +35

[ExSky]

Which one?

Montgomery County, Texas. The only county in the country to net Trump >100k votes in 2016.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I say no. Biden will close the gap to 90k and the percentage gap to +35

That'd be interesting. If Trump can't get a 100k vote margin out of here, he's doomed statewide. He needs to gain votes somewhere in order to keep up with the massive ballooning of votes coming out of Austin and the other Dem-trending areas.

[lfromnj]

Tilt yes, turnout spike + population growth should counteract swing voters. Even if those 2 factors help the Dem percentage in the county they should help R net vote margin.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Nah, can't see it.

I'll go one step further and say Biden will get 29-30% in Montgomery

[DrScholl]

It probably will drop to about 75,000-80,000.

[S019ian Liberal]

I think Trump's vote total out of there will balloon, but so should Biden's skyrocket.

So barely, no. A 90-95k vote lead that I can see.

[Tintrlvr]

I wouldn't be shocked, and it could happen even with a Biden victory in Texas since Montgomery has crazy population growth, but I think around 90k is more likely. If you assume 250k votes and a 67-30 Trump-Biden split, you end up with a margin just over 90k, which is about what I would guess.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Nah, can't see it.

I'll go one step further and say Biden will get 29-30% in Montgomery

See, I don’t think those two are incompatible. I think Biden will get around 30% of the vote here, but the turnout spike will put Trump’s margin right around 100k. Of course, I’m still skeptical Trump will do any better than Cruz or arrest the #trends in any of the big counties for it to matter statewide if he’s losing Travis County by like 340k.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Nah, can't see it.

I'll go one step further and say Biden will get 29-30% in Montgomery

See, I don’t think those two are incompatible. I think Biden will get around 30% of the vote here, but the turnout spike will put Trump’s margin right around 100k. Of course, I’m still skeptical Trump will do any better than Cruz or arrest the #trends in any of the big counties for it to matter statewide if he’s losing Travis County by like 340k.

With that in mind, would you say 29-30% is a better metric to follow for a Biden win in TX?

[krb08]

Yes. Biden's percentage margin will improve there, but with the expected large increase in turnout in TX, as well is Montgomery County's booming population, Trump should clear a 100k raw vote margin.

There is a scenario, however, where Biden improves so much that it negates those factors. That's a scenario in which he's winning TX.

[lfromnj]

Not only did he get 100k, but he got 120k!

[forsythvoter]

Is Montgomery County, TX the county with the largest raw vote margin for Trump this election? I don't think I see any other counties that even come close yet.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is Montgomery County, TX the county with the largest raw vote margin for Trump this election? I don't think I see any other counties that even come close yet.

By far.

[forsythvoter]

Is Montgomery County, TX the county with the largest raw vote margin for Trump this election? I don't think I see any other counties that even come close yet.

By far.

Yeah, the closest one I found was Utah County, UT (Provo), which gave trump a +104K margin. Interestingly enough, this was also one of the best showings ever for a Democrat in that county.