Civiqs/Daily Kos: Biden +5 in GA, -14 in MS, +7 in PA
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  Civiqs/Daily Kos: Biden +5 in GA, -14 in MS, +7 in PA
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Author Topic: Civiqs/Daily Kos: Biden +5 in GA, -14 in MS, +7 in PA  (Read 3051 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 27, 2020, 07:30:00 AM »

Oct. 23-26

GA (1041 LV, MoE: 3.3%)
Biden 51%
Trump 46%
Someone else 2%

SEN: 51-45 Ossoff
SEN-S: Warnock 48, Collins 23, Loeffler 22

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_GA_banner_book_2020_10_p577m2.pdf

MS (507 LV, MoE: 5.3%)
Trump 55%
Biden 41%
Someone else 3%
Unsure 1%

SEN: 52-44 Hyde-Smith

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_MS_banner_book_2020_10_46eq84.pdf

PA (1145 LV, MoE: 3.0%)
Biden 52%
Trump 45%
Someone else 2%
Unsure 1%

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_PA_banner_book_2020_10_3x5e25.pdf
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2020, 07:31:55 AM »

Georgia is Tilt D in my opinion. Never thought I'd say it.
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Buzz
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2020, 07:32:13 AM »

Georgia and Pennsylvania voting in line with each other?  Seems likely!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2020, 07:33:07 AM »

Absolutely gorgeous numbers!
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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2020, 07:34:58 AM »

In PA Biden up 87-11 among those who have already voted.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2020, 07:35:32 AM »

Georgia voting 2 points to the right of PA isn't that far off from 2016.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2020, 07:35:50 AM »

Georgia and Pennsylvania voting in line with each other?  Seems likely!

Not totally crazy.  2018 results looked like a 2012 map until a whole bunch of places broke in favor of 2016 trends at the last minute.
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Person Man
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2020, 07:38:59 AM »

Georgia and Pennsylvania voting in line with each other?  Seems likely!

Not totally crazy.  2018 results looked like a 2012 map until a whole bunch of places broke in favor of 2016 trends at the last minute.

Time makes fools of us all.
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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2020, 07:47:45 AM »

The age gap among white Georgians is absolutely stunning. 90% of seniors support Trump while only 42% of 34 and unders do.
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Reapsow
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2020, 07:55:54 AM »

Somebody grab a fork...Trumpís ready to come out of the oven.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2020, 07:58:59 AM »

All medium to high quality pollsters for PA have averaged about 7/8 and this continues that trend.

GA, wow. Multiple polls now showing Biden coming thru in the state. Also what, the 3rd poll with Ossoff at 51/Perdue at 45-46?

MS is kind of weird, would think it would shift more than 4% from 2016.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2020, 07:59:33 AM »

In PA Biden up 87-11 among those who have already voted.

Which, based on the data so far, confirms with the other poll that Biden is doing very well with Indies then too.
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Figueira
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2020, 08:00:10 AM »

This flipped GA back on 538.
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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2020, 08:01:52 AM »

All medium to high quality pollsters for PA have averaged about 7/8 and this continues that trend.

GA, wow. Multiple polls now showing Biden coming thru in the state. Also what, the 3rd poll with Ossoff at 51/Perdue at 45-46?

MS is kind of weird, would think it would shift more than 4% from 2016.

MS is probably the most inelastic state in the country. A 4% shift would be huge.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2020, 08:03:39 AM »

All medium to high quality pollsters for PA have averaged about 7/8 and this continues that trend.

GA, wow. Multiple polls now showing Biden coming thru in the state. Also what, the 3rd poll with Ossoff at 51/Perdue at 45-46?

MS is kind of weird, would think it would shift more than 4% from 2016.

MS is probably the most inelastic state in the country. A 4% shift would be huge.

True. The Espy -8 result seems pretty true too. Unfortunately I don't think Espy will get any closer than Hood did in 2019. His max is probably -5.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2020, 08:05:00 AM »

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.
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Person Man
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2020, 08:08:41 AM »

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

A bad case of Corvid-19.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2020, 08:09:36 AM »

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

Honestly, the most recent GA polls haven't been that bad. The only obvious outlier has been Landmark, I have no idea what they are doing. Everyone else has been close to the dead heat race.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2020, 08:10:24 AM »

I can believe in PA, MS numbers. But GA....

We'll see what happens but GA wouldn't surprise me. The energy there is insane - just look at the EV. They've also added a LOT of new voters since even 2018. It's definitely possible that many pollsters (unlike this one) are not accounting for the swing state energy surrounding the state this year (like TX)
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2020, 08:17:41 AM »

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

Honestly, the most recent GA polls haven't been that bad. The only obvious outlier has been Landmark, I have no idea what they are doing. Everyone else has been close to the dead heat race.

Even if you believe Biden and Ossoff are up narrowly in GA like I do, there's still a big difference between being up by a point or two and being up 5-7 like Quinn, Civiqs and all have shown.
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VAR
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2020, 08:18:11 AM »

I mean, Civiqs is actually a serious pollster unlike Quinnipiac, so they might be on to something. But Iíd be surprised if GA voted 5 points to the left of TX.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2020, 08:19:13 AM »

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

Honestly, the most recent GA polls haven't been that bad. The only obvious outlier has been Landmark, I have no idea what they are doing. Everyone else has been close to the dead heat race.

Even if you believe Biden and Ossoff are up narrowly in GA like I do, there's still a big difference between being up by a point or two and being up 5-7 like Quinn, Civiqs and all have shown.

Well that's the thing, it's quite possible though that the end result ends up like Biden +3 or something, which would make Biden +5 polls make sense. Q-pac may have overestimated a bit. But it's clear to me from everything that those results seem more possible, given the energy in GA, then Trump basically getting his 2016 margin there (Landmark)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2020, 08:19:55 AM »

I mean, Civiqs is actually a serious pollster unlike Quinnipiac, so they might be on to something. But Iíd be surprised if GA voted 5 points to the left of TX.

I mean, GA voted 4 points to the left of TX in 2016, so if Biden is +5 in GA, then that would be about a tied race in TX, which would line up with what we're seeing, right?
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Buzz
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« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2020, 08:20:37 AM »

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

Honestly, the most recent GA polls haven't been that bad. The only obvious outlier has been Landmark, I have no idea what they are doing. Everyone else has been close to the dead heat race.

Even if you believe Biden and Ossoff are up narrowly in GA like I do, there's still a big difference between being up by a point or two and being up 5-7 like Quinn, Civiqs and all have shown.
Wbrocks logic:

Poll showing Trump up 4: OUTLIER JUNK! Idc if itís the best pollster!
Poll showing Biden up 5: Very believable, credible poll!
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skbl17
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« Reply #24 on: October 27, 2020, 08:23:27 AM »

For Georgia:

Racial breakdown: 60% white, 32% black, 8% other
Party ID: +7 Republican (38 R, 31 D, 31 I)

1,041 LV surveyed (56% of this sample have already voted, actually); MoE +/- 3.3%

Favorability numbers:

- Biden: 46/51 (-5)
- Trump: 45/53 (-8)
- Perdue: 40/51 (-11)
- Ossoff: 48/46 (+2)
- Warnock: 51/29 (+22)
- Loeffler: 30/57 (-27)
- Collins: 37/40 (-3)
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