2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[EJ24]

What I am optimistic about in Florida, if you look into the numbers, more independents voted by mail rather than voted early in person.  This tells me that on balance they were worried about coronavirus, which tells me they are probably leaning Biden by a fair amount. 

Right now Trump probably still needs excellent turnout on Election Day and I'm not sure it's there for him.  They reported that at the Florida rally tonight Trump asked people if they had already voted and almost everyone in the crowd raised their hand.  There is a very real possibility that Democrats keep pace with Republicans in Florida when all is said and done and then it comes down to Independents.  I'd rather be Biden in that scenario.

C A N N I B A L I Z I N G

[philly09]

What I am optimistic about in Florida, if you look into the numbers, more independents voted by mail rather than voted early in person.  This tells me that on balance they were worried about coronavirus, which tells me they are probably leaning Biden by a fair amount. 

Right now Trump probably still needs excellent turnout on Election Day and I'm not sure it's there for him.  They reported that at the Florida rally tonight Trump asked people if they had already voted and almost everyone in the crowd raised their hand.  There is a very real possibility that Democrats keep pace with Republicans in Florida when all is said and done and then it comes down to Independents.  I'd rather be Biden in that scenario.

Yet to vote

Democrats:1,808,892

GOP:1,780,173

NPA:1,929,241

[Buzz]

What I am optimistic about in Florida, if you look into the numbers, more independents voted by mail rather than voted early in person.  This tells me that on balance they were worried about coronavirus, which tells me they are probably leaning Biden by a fair amount. 

Right now Trump probably still needs excellent turnout on Election Day and I'm not sure it's there for him.  They reported that at the Florida rally tonight Trump asked people if they had already voted and almost everyone in the crowd raised their hand.  There is a very real possibility that Democrats keep pace with Republicans in Florida when all is said and done and then it comes down to Independents.  I'd rather be Biden in that scenario.

Trump's rally in Florida tonight hadn't even occurred when you posted, so whoever you got that info from was wrong.  He asked the same question in MI and GA, and most people hadn't voted yet.

[emailking]

Well the people who go to his rallies I assume would be more energized and likely to vote early.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What I am optimistic about in Florida, if you look into the numbers, more independents voted by mail rather than voted early in person.  This tells me that on balance they were worried about coronavirus, which tells me they are probably leaning Biden by a fair amount. 

Right now Trump probably still needs excellent turnout on Election Day and I'm not sure it's there for him.  They reported that at the Florida rally tonight Trump asked people if they had already voted and almost everyone in the crowd raised their hand.  There is a very real possibility that Democrats keep pace with Republicans in Florida when all is said and done and then it comes down to Independents.  I'd rather be Biden in that scenario.

Trump's rally in Florida tonight hadn't even occurred when you posted

He posted that literally 16 minutes before your post.

[Buzz]

Well the people who go to his rallies I assume would be more energized and likely to vote early.

I would agree but his rallies are also a tiny population so I wouldn't judge much off them.

[Buzz]

What I am optimistic about in Florida, if you look into the numbers, more independents voted by mail rather than voted early in person.  This tells me that on balance they were worried about coronavirus, which tells me they are probably leaning Biden by a fair amount. 

Right now Trump probably still needs excellent turnout on Election Day and I'm not sure it's there for him.  They reported that at the Florida rally tonight Trump asked people if they had already voted and almost everyone in the crowd raised their hand.  There is a very real possibility that Democrats keep pace with Republicans in Florida when all is said and done and then it comes down to Independents.  I'd rather be Biden in that scenario.

Trump's rally in Florida tonight hadn't even occurred when you posted

He posted that literally 16 minutes before your post.

  the rally literally just started at like midnight, I'm watching it right now.  He literally just asked and I'd say 60% already voted.

[philly09]

94 Million Votes. Here's Michael McDonald's final assessment. He seems surprisingly bearish on Biden's chances in NC.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/Early_Vote_Analysis_11_01.html

[Bootes Void]

In NC, responding to Michael McDonald
- more people have early voted compared to four years ago, even republicans so that's why the gap isn't so large. There is just less pool of voters that can potentially cast their vote compared to where it was four years ago
- dixiecrats have continued to leave the party, so the party registration lead is more "real" as the parties have become more purified ideologically and on how they vote
- independents vote and they may go more heavily  for the Democrats this time compared to four years ago.
- the highest turnout counties in NC are mostly dem strongholds so I assume that would help their case a little more
- there are alot of blacks north Carolinans who will vote on election so the ED won't be as heavily skewed to the Republicans as people think

[philly09]

In NC, responding to Michael McDonald
- more people have early voted compared to four years ago, even republicans so that's why the gap isn't so large. There is just less pool of voters that can potentially cast their vote compared to where it was four years ago
- dixiecrats have continued to leave the party, so the party registration lead is more "real" as the parties have become more purified ideologically and on how they vote
- independents vote and they may go more heavily  for the Democrats this time compared to four years ago.
- the highest turnout counties in NC are mostly dem strongholds so I assume that would help their case a little more
- there are alot of blacks north Carolina who will vote on election so the ED won't be as heavily skewed to the Republicans as people think

Not to mention Kamala is headed to Greensboro tomorrow.

[cg41386]

Yeah, a lot of his analysis doesn’t make sense to me. Arizona as well.

[Blair]

Those Florida numbers don't look too awful do they? Especially if there's still some more to trickle in tomorrow?

[Donerail]

Those Florida numbers don't look too awful do they? Especially if there's still some more to trickle in tomorrow?

They look okay. Wouldn't call it great (at least until we see the Dade numbers in about five hours), certainly wouldn't call it bad. If you make some pretty conservative assumptions about how NPAs will break, it sets you up for a win — a tight win, but a win nonetheless.

[Hammy]

Dems have a decent lead in Florida's early vote especially considering they had a 17k vote deficit at the end of early voting in 2016. Maybe it really doesn't hinge entirely on Miami-Dade.

[MT Treasurer]

94 Million Votes. Here's Michael McDonald's final assessment. He seems surprisingly bearish on Biden's chances in NC.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/Early_Vote_Analysis_11_01.html

I’m not reading all that much into early voting data/reporting, but Trump being in a better position in NC than FL isn’t that surprising. I don’t buy that it’s anything more favorable than a Tossup/Tilt R for Republicans, though.

[Tender Branson]

McDonald:

"Regrettably, I have signed a non-disclosure agreement with the national exit poll organization that prevents me from going into greater detail about state turnout estimates, as I have in past years. I will be allowed to post estimates late on election night, which I will continue to update in the days afterwards as results are reported. Trust me, no one is more disappointed than me about this situation."

WTF ?

What's wrong with estimating state turnouts ?

[Gustaf]

Presumably he has access to information from the exit polling organization and isn't allowed to say things about it until it's published.

[Crumpets]

94 Million Votes. Here's Michael McDonald's final assessment. He seems surprisingly bearish on Biden's chances in NC.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/Early_Vote_Analysis_11_01.html

If you input his "calls" into the 538 state flipping calculator (OR, CO, AZ, NV, ME to Biden, NC to Trump, PA, IA, and FL tossups) it spits out 96% chance of Biden win, 3% chance of Trump win, 1% chance of tie.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-will-win-nevada-blue-wave-should-help-down-ballot

[morgieb]

So Ralston's calling Nevada for Biden:

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-will-win-nevada-blue-wave-should-help-down-ballot

[wbrocks67]

Wait, how the hell does he have NC going for Trump? Are people still using the "Well Dems were up more in 2016 in the early vote" thing? Even though we've had like 1.6 million more votes cast in early voting this year than 2016, and Dems *still* have a lead?! Also, not to mention, in 2016, Indies went for Trump, while this year they are more likely to break for Biden?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I love how people warn us not to extrapolate anything from early vote only to ignore later their own advice.

[wbrocks67]

So Ralston's calling Nevada for Biden:

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-will-win-nevada-blue-wave-should-help-down-ballot

Biden winning NV is great and all, but that +4 result would be pretty terrible tho. Though that seems unlikely, given that Dems lead is nearly +4 right now in just the D/R totals, not even including Indies.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323186161586741250

[wbrocks67]

Wait, how the hell does he have NC going for Trump? Are people still using the "Well Dems were up more in 2016 in the early vote" thing? Even though we've had like 1.6 million more votes cast in early voting this year than 2016, and Dems *still* have a lead?! Also, not to mention, in 2016, Indies went for Trump, while this year they are more likely to break for Biden?

and just to be clear, I don't think Biden is 100% going to win. But McDonald seeming so sure that these #s are surefire good for... Trump... just seems odd given what we know.