2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

DALLAS-FORT WORTH (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)


DALLAS COUNTY                794,398   56.8%    2016 : 104.7%    2018: 109.1%


TARRANT COUNTY              731,473   60.3%     2016: 109.4%     2018: 116.5%


COLLIN COUNTY                 448,793   69.2%     2016: 124.2%    2018: 126.1%


DENTON COUNTY               380,857   67.4%     2016: 127.5%     2018:  128.8%



- Collin County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 67.3%
- Denton County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 64.3%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

GREATER AUSTIN


TRAVIS COUNTY                553,290    64.7%     2016: 115.9%     2018: 114.3%


WILLIAMSON COUNTY        262,240    69.6%     2016: 129.1%     2018: 125.9%


HAYS COUNTY                     97,143    63.6%     2016: 134.6%     2018: 121.8%
(Sorry! Didn't put together a spreadsheet for Hays)


- Travis County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 64.65%
- Williamson County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 67.7%
- Williamson County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 59.5%

(Also, I had put Williamsons votes yesterday at 258k when it was actually 247k. Just to clarify)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

SOUTH TEXAS (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)


HIDALGO COUNTY             187,893    48.0%     2016: 108.3%     2018: 123.8%


NUECES COUNTY               111,059    52.5%     2016: 106.4%    2018: 118.1%


CAMERON COUNTY             96,335    44.0%     2016:  104.6%   2018: 123.7%



- Nueces County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 52.34%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

BEXAR COUNTY                 680,598    57.2%     2016: 115.4%     2018: 123.8%



- Bexar County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 57.2%


As of this hour, El Paso County hasn't posted their final EV report. I'll make sure to update this post when they release it

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I ultimately don’t think the ballots will be tossed, but it’s something we can’t take lightly

[Donerail]

This is a bizarre lawsuit. Why would the TX Supreme Court uphold throwing out 100K votes from a method that they ruled to allow? All this is going to do is drive up Democratic turnout and anger Indies who just want all votes counted.

This is a lawsuit in federal court, so the goal here would be to get it up to the US Supreme Court.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

GREATER AUSTIN


TRAVIS COUNTY                553,290    64.7%     2016: 115.9%     2018: 114.3%


WILLIAMSON COUNTY        262,240    69.6%     2016: 129.1%     2018: 125.9%


HAYS COUNTY                     97,143    63.6%     2016: 134.6%     2018: 121.8%
(Sorry! Didn't put together a spreadsheet for Hays)


- Travis County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 64.65%
- Williamson County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 67.7%
- Williamson County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 59.5%

(Also, I had put Williamsons votes yesterday at 258k when it was actually 247k. Just to clarify)

Even independent of the other metro areas portending great news for Dems, the Austin metro in particular is why I am pretty confident Biden will pull it out here.

[Inmate Trump]

This is a bizarre lawsuit. Why would the TX Supreme Court uphold throwing out 100K votes from a method that they ruled to allow? All this is going to do is drive up Democratic turnout and anger Indies who just want all votes counted.

This is a lawsuit in federal court, so the goal here would be to get it up to the US Supreme Court.

If SCOTUS rules in favor of tossing ballots, the next time Dems get any power at all they need to pack the court.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

SOUTH TEXAS (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)


HIDALGO COUNTY             187,893    48.0%     2016: 108.3%     2018: 123.8%


NUECES COUNTY               111,059    52.5%     2016: 106.4%    2018: 118.1%


CAMERON COUNTY             96,335    44.0%     2016:  104.6%   2018: 123.7%



- Nueces County turnout percentage exceeded their 2016 total turnout percentage of 52.34%

To add to this, Webb County also finished strong and had a huge surge yesterday and finished at 54,000 exactly! That beats the 49k cast in 2018 and falls only 3k shy of the total 2016 record! They will blast past it on Election Day, and I’m optimistic they can push to 75k when all is done.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Anyone got a TL;DR on how Texas and Georgia are looking for Biden?

[wbrocks67]

Wait, are people really dooming about PA? This is our first year doing full blown mail ballots, and as of yesterday we were at nearly 75% return rate! And Dems are nearly 80%! Those #s are great! Not sure how you can find some type of bad situation there.

Not to mention, I would imagine that like in many states, most black voters are waiting until election day.

If anything, I would still be worrying if i was Republicans. Dems have now built a +1M lead and Reps are not returning their ballots as fast as Dems are.

I think many are worried about the outstanding ballots.  Even though Dems have returned at a higher rate they still have more outstanding ballots.  If the election is tight people are probably worried that more Dems will put them in the mail and they will arrive late.

People have gotten the message though - no one is still putting their ballots in the mail right now. The state has been very good at vocalizing since last week to not mail it in anymore and drop it off in person.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone got a TL;DR on how Texas and Georgia are looking for Biden?

GA looks very good IMO. They are 93% of their 2016 result and this is the makeup:

GA: 56.8% white/43.2% nonwhite (white +13.6) - 93% turnout
2018 exit poll: 60/40 (white +20)

Now, this could be off a tiny bit, b/c apparently some white people may be in the "Other/Unknown" category in the EV, but even if you give it an extra 1.5, it's still a considerable amount less than white than in 2018 when Abrams nearly won. And many black voters traditionally wait until election day as well.

[wbrocks67]

New Mexico has 93% of 2016 turnout right now and Ds still have +14% in banked votes. If Indies lean biden, NM could be a bigger lead than many thought.

New Mexico
Dems 48.9%
Reps 34.9%
Other 15.9%

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats lead in EV down to just 39K due to surging rural turnout, below 2016’s 45K and well below Ralston’s projected 55K that’s 2016 adjusted for population trends. The Democrats’ lead will likely grow as more mail-in ballots come in the next couple days.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

New Mexico has 93% of 2016 turnout right now and Ds still have +14% in banked votes. If Indies lean biden, NM could be a bigger lead than many thought.

New Mexico
Dems 48.9%
Reps 34.9%
Other 15.9%

New Mexico was never going to be competitive without third parties screwing with the totals, and I'm surprised more people didn't realize that from the start.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

New Mexico has 93% of 2016 turnout right now and Ds still have +14% in banked votes. If Indies lean biden, NM could be a bigger lead than many thought.

New Mexico
Dems 48.9%
Reps 34.9%
Other 15.9%

New Mexico was never going to be competitive without third parties screwing with the totals, and I'm surprised more people didn't realize that from the start.

Sounds a lot like Minnesota

[wbrocks67]

Democrats lead in EV down to just 39K due to surging rural turnout, below 2016’s 45K and well below Ralston’s projected 55K that’s 2016 adjusted for population trends. The Democrats’ lead will likely grow as more mail-in ballots come in the next couple days.

You do realize that it's not over yet right? And Dems lead will obviously increase on Sun/Mon with no more early voting?

Also, again, people keep ignoring that NPA preferences might be VERY different this year.

[The Mikado]

GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

[Lief 🗽]

Looks like this one is over. The hubris of this campaign, not abandoning Florida a week ago when it was clear what was happening.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1322644765624672256

[Tender Branson]

GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

But mail ballots are still coming in on Monday.

Maybe they reach 100% with this weekend dump.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like this one is over. The hubris of this campaign, not abandoning Florida a week ago when it was clear what was happening.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1322644765624672256

Given that Dems have an extra day on FL basically on Sunday, it appears Dems will likely have an edge in % turnout at the end of EV, which was *not* the case in 2016.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looks like this one is over. The hubris of this campaign, not abandoning Florida a week ago when it was clear what was happening.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1322644765624672256

Will you stop jfc. Time and time again it has been explained that all democrats need to do to win is not let the Reps get a clear reg edge to win which is what they are doing. Unless only 12% of Dems show up on ED they are right were they need to be

[Bootes Void]

Looks like this one is over. The hubris of this campaign, not abandoning Florida a week ago when it was clear what was happening.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1322644765624672256

There is still Soul to the Polls tommorow along with ED. If dem wants to win Florida, they should get up up to 80%-85%RV(preferably 85% and higher)and be even with the rep.To pull of Florida you'll:
1.have dems and reps RV voted to be close or equal
2. Strong support from NPAs along with higher turnout.
3. get Rs to vote For Ds then Ds to vote for Rs(I have no idea how this goes in Florida, but most polls show this)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

What is it with folks in this thread ignoring the Indy/NPA/NPP votes? I'm getting real sick of it


EDIT: Ugh, I started an empty quote chain. Less empty quotes, more answers!

[swf541]

What is it with folks in this thread ignoring the Indy/NPA/NPP votes? I'm getting real sick of it