2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Florida Man for Crime]

Black Seniors are turning out hard in the South:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320701753852047364?s=21

Don't quote TargetSmart.

In reading the replies, Bonier apparently gleaned this info straight from GA state (no, not Georgia State).  Not sure how reliable this is, though.  That's above my head.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320544370962112512

The Georgia one could definitely be right, but Texas I don't think has info like this, so I believe that's just speculation.

Correct on both counts. In Georgia voters select their race while registering to vote (for VRA purposes). In Texas, they do not. The GA data comes from that, TX data comes from modeling where they attempt to predict race, which is better than nothing, but not entirely reliable.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

(snip)

Still a lot of ballots out but Dems have a healthy lead in the CA-08 open seat, a district that was a Republican lockout in 2018 despite having a lower PVI than CA-50. I don't believe it's on any of the pundit radars at all.

They've got similar margins in Calvert's CA-42. I'm not expecting him to lose, but wouldn't be surprised if he gets a close scare like in 2008:

Ballots returned
Dem:   38,660   (26% of Dem ballots returned)
GOP:    32,184   (18% of GOP ballots returned)
NPP:    19,696   (16% of NPP ballots returned)

[TopShelfGoal]

Regardless of how nice it is to have for analysis, it seems crazy to me that voters in some states have to specify their race when registering. Like what relevance does that have to voting and seems like something that could be weaponized against PoCs.

USA must be the only country in the world that does this.

[Brittain33]

Regardless of how nice it is to have for analysis, it seems crazy to me that voters in some states have to specify their race when registering. Like what relevance does that have to voting and seems like something that could be weaponized against PoCs.

USA must be the only country in the world that does this.

Do you not know why it was necessary to prevent discrimination?

[Blair]

for any FL Posters or people in the loop...

1.) What's the likelyhood of either Trump or Biden winning a big (more than 5% chunk) of the opposition parties vote?

2.) Do we know from polling how NPAs will vote?

[GP270watch]

Regardless of how nice it is to have for analysis, it seems crazy to me that voters in some states have to specify their race when registering. Like what relevance does that have to voting and seems like something that could be weaponized against PoCs.

USA must be the only country in the world that does this.

 This occurs in historically racist states that discriminated against minorities and primarily Black voters. Collecting the data actually makes it much easier to see and fight that discrimination. Without the data the cases of misconduct would be harder to prove. Right now even with the data conservative legislators and judges still "see no evil, hear no evil" even when the data overwhelming shows disenfranchisement.

[wbrocks67]

I think it's interesting how this year really made CA Dems, to take one example, realize they need to get their ballots in on time. I feel like we always talk about them waiting until the last minute (and FL Dems too) and CA Dems turnout rate is nearly 10% higher than Reps (35% vs 26%)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Regardless of how nice it is to have for analysis, it seems crazy to me that voters in some states have to specify their race when registering. Like what relevance does that have to voting and seems like something that could be weaponized against PoCs.

USA must be the only country in the world that does this.

I think they actually started doing that after the Voting Rights Act was passed to make sure it was having the desired effect of increasing voter registration among minority groups who had previously been denied to right to vote.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I thought the talking point was a 600k lead in feral after EV ended?

[TopShelfGoal]

Regardless of how nice it is to have for analysis, it seems crazy to me that voters in some states have to specify their race when registering. Like what relevance does that have to voting and seems like something that could be weaponized against PoCs.

USA must be the only country in the world that does this.

 This occurs in historically racist states that discriminated against minorities and primarily Black voters. Collecting the data actually makes it much easier to see and fight that discrimination. Without the data the cases of misconduct would be harder to prove. Right now even with the data conservative legislators and judges still "see no evil, hear no evil" even when the data overwhelming shows disenfranchisement.

I think they actually started doing that after the Voting Rights Act was passed to make sure it was having the desired effect of increasing voter registration among minority groups who had previously been denied to right to vote.

Thanks for the context, that makes a lot more sense and explains why this stat is only available in mostly southern state.

[Ljube]

I thought the talking point was a 600k lead in feral after EV ended?

I know everybody says that the Dems need a 600k lead, but how do we know that?

[kph14]

I think it's interesting how this year really made CA Dems, to take one example, realize they need to get their ballots in on time. I feel like we always talk about them waiting until the last minute (and FL Dems too) and CA Dems turnout rate is nearly 10% higher than Reps (35% vs 26%)

It's kinda funny because in CA they actually don't have to send them in early for the ballots to be counted. The counting after election night will be interesting. On big difference: no Democrats will call it fraud when the Republicans flip a seat back

[Antonio the Sixth]

NC 10/25, day 10 early in-person vote:

Dem 22810 (35.2%)
Rep 21377 (33.0%)
Una 20530 (31.7%)
Total 64717

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 21048 (48.8%)
Rep 10711 (24.8%)
Una 11405 (26.4%)
Total 43164

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 911178 (38.2%)
Rep 800357 (33.6%)
Una 671732 (28.2%)
Total 2383267

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1281302 (40.6%)
Rep 952136 (30.2%)
Una 924243 (29.3%)
Total 3157681

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 731945 (44.2%)
Rep 510633 (30.9%)
Una 412049 (24.9%)
Total 1654627

Dems manage to bolster their large lead slightly by narrowly winning early in-person vote yesterday, ending the streak of consecutive days where GOP was doing better. Early vote total is currently 35k short of 2016's final early vote total (mail + in-person) and will likely pass it sometime today.

The return rate for NC mail-in ballots is just 54% right now, significantly lower than Florida (where it's past 2/3) let alone other states where it's reaching 80%. Any idea why that is? And how much of a concern is that? Should we expect it to pick up soon, and where do you think it will end up on Election Day?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I just finished voting after waiting 4 hours in the rain and cold. My first presidential election vote ever.

It feels great! Straight blue from Biden/Harris and all the way down-ballot.

Much larger turnout than I expected, most people are just fed up with Trump.

[Gass3268]

NC 10/25, day 10 early in-person vote:

Dem 22810 (35.2%)
Rep 21377 (33.0%)
Una 20530 (31.7%)
Total 64717

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 21048 (48.8%)
Rep 10711 (24.8%)
Una 11405 (26.4%)
Total 43164

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 911178 (38.2%)
Rep 800357 (33.6%)
Una 671732 (28.2%)
Total 2383267

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1281302 (40.6%)
Rep 952136 (30.2%)
Una 924243 (29.3%)
Total 3157681

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 731945 (44.2%)
Rep 510633 (30.9%)
Una 412049 (24.9%)
Total 1654627

Dems manage to bolster their large lead slightly by narrowly winning early in-person vote yesterday, ending the streak of consecutive days where GOP was doing better. Early vote total is currently 35k short of 2016's final early vote total (mail + in-person) and will likely pass it sometime today.

The return rate for NC mail-in ballots is just 54% right now, significantly lower than Florida (where it's past 2/3) let alone other states where it's reaching 80%. Any idea why that is? And how much of a concern is that? Should we expect it to pick up soon, and where do you think it will end up on Election Day?

They are at 66.5% of their total 2016 vote however.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

NC 10/25, day 10 early in-person vote:

Dem 22810 (35.2%)
Rep 21377 (33.0%)
Una 20530 (31.7%)
Total 64717

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 21048 (48.8%)
Rep 10711 (24.8%)
Una 11405 (26.4%)
Total 43164

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 911178 (38.2%)
Rep 800357 (33.6%)
Una 671732 (28.2%)
Total 2383267

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1281302 (40.6%)
Rep 952136 (30.2%)
Una 924243 (29.3%)
Total 3157681

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 731945 (44.2%)
Rep 510633 (30.9%)
Una 412049 (24.9%)
Total 1654627

Dems manage to bolster their large lead slightly by narrowly winning early in-person vote yesterday, ending the streak of consecutive days where GOP was doing better. Early vote total is currently 35k short of 2016's final early vote total (mail + in-person) and will likely pass it sometime today.

The return rate for NC mail-in ballots is just 54% right now, significantly lower than Florida (where it's past 2/3) let alone other states where it's reaching 80%. Any idea why that is? And how much of a concern is that? Should we expect it to pick up soon, and where do you think it will end up on Election Day?

NC is counting ballots received up to 3 days after election day (so long as they're postmarked 11/3) so there's a bit more leeway there than somewhere like PA. Still worrying though.

[wbrocks67]

NC 10/25, day 10 early in-person vote:

Dem 22810 (35.2%)
Rep 21377 (33.0%)
Una 20530 (31.7%)
Total 64717

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 21048 (48.8%)
Rep 10711 (24.8%)
Una 11405 (26.4%)
Total 43164

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 911178 (38.2%)
Rep 800357 (33.6%)
Una 671732 (28.2%)
Total 2383267

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1281302 (40.6%)
Rep 952136 (30.2%)
Una 924243 (29.3%)
Total 3157681

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 731945 (44.2%)
Rep 510633 (30.9%)
Una 412049 (24.9%)
Total 1654627

Dems manage to bolster their large lead slightly by narrowly winning early in-person vote yesterday, ending the streak of consecutive days where GOP was doing better. Early vote total is currently 35k short of 2016's final early vote total (mail + in-person) and will likely pass it sometime today.

The return rate for NC mail-in ballots is just 54% right now, significantly lower than Florida (where it's past 2/3) let alone other states where it's reaching 80%. Any idea why that is? And how much of a concern is that? Should we expect it to pick up soon, and where do you think it will end up on Election Day?

NC is counting ballots received up to 3 days after election day (so long as they're postmarked 11/3) so there's a bit more leeway there than somewhere like PA. Still worrying though.

PA is also counting ballots up to 3 days after election day. I thought North Carolina was like Nov 12th?

[psychprofessor]

I thought the talking point was a 600k lead in feral after EV ended?

I know everybody says that the Dems need a 600k lead, but how do we know that?

This was supposed to be a 600k vote lead in VBM - D's have exceeded that so far.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Williamson County, TX at 6,320 in-person votes so far. That puts them around 104% of the 2016 vote totals and 101% of the 2018 totals

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

NC 10/25, day 10 early in-person vote:

Dem 22810 (35.2%)
Rep 21377 (33.0%)
Una 20530 (31.7%)
Total 64717

compared to day 9 in 2016

Dem 21048 (48.8%)
Rep 10711 (24.8%)
Una 11405 (26.4%)
Total 43164

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 911178 (38.2%)
Rep 800357 (33.6%)
Una 671732 (28.2%)
Total 2383267

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1281302 (40.6%)
Rep 952136 (30.2%)
Una 924243 (29.3%)
Total 3157681

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 731945 (44.2%)
Rep 510633 (30.9%)
Una 412049 (24.9%)
Total 1654627

Dems manage to bolster their large lead slightly by narrowly winning early in-person vote yesterday, ending the streak of consecutive days where GOP was doing better. Early vote total is currently 35k short of 2016's final early vote total (mail + in-person) and will likely pass it sometime today.

The return rate for NC mail-in ballots is just 54% right now, significantly lower than Florida (where it's past 2/3) let alone other states where it's reaching 80%. Any idea why that is? And how much of a concern is that? Should we expect it to pick up soon, and where do you think it will end up on Election Day?

NC is counting ballots received up to 3 days after election day (so long as they're postmarked 11/3) so there's a bit more leeway there than somewhere like PA. Still worrying though.

PA is also counting ballots up to 3 days after election day. I thought North Carolina was like Nov 12th?

I was just quoting the NC BOE website's FAQ section but it's entirely possible that info's outdated with all the court challenges etc.

[mijan]

289992 people voted in person absentee in WI.

MILWAUKEE COUNTY 45914
WAUKESHA COUNTY 36539
DANE COUNTY 26784
RACINE COUNTY 14447
BROWN COUNTY 13518
WASHINGTON COUNTY 12768
KENOSHA COUNTY 11278

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320828588820697088?s=21 Y’all were so mad this morning when I said a 50k day was in store.
I’m

[republican1993]

I just finished voting after waiting 4 hours in the rain and cold. My first presidential election vote ever.

It feels great! Straight blue from Biden/Harris and all the way down-ballot.

Much larger turnout than I expected, most people are just fed up with Trump.

awesome!!

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320828588820697088?s=21 Y’all were so mad this morning when I said a 50k day was in store.
I’m

no offense, but who the F cares?  Dems don't have to have higher turnout than Republicans to win Florida, they likely just need to maintain parity.  They'll win independents because their candidate isn't a piece of poop like Donald Trump.  You dig?

[Rep Jessica]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320828588820697088?s=21 Y’all were so mad this morning when I said a 50k day was in store.
I’m

308,000 lead for the democrats
7 more full days (Tue, wed, thurs, friday, sat, sun, mon) of 50,000 republican
50,000 x 7 = 350,000 votes for In person for the republican party if we continue days like this!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

So that means that republicans have a chance at pulling ahead even with the mail vote advantage the democrats had. lol