2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[brucejoel99]

 50k day OTW

I appreciate the updates, but the turnout guesses, especially without VBM context, are wholly unnecessary.

This is about the only think that Buzz can hang his hat on right now. It looks so bleak everywhere else he has to take even meh numbers from Florida and blow them out of proportion

You’re not wrong

Buzz, you just need to accept Joe Biden as your lord and savior. Everyone here has a fealty allegiance to Lord Biden.

This, but unironically.

[Buzz]

 50k day OTW

I appreciate the updates, but the turnout guesses, especially without VBM context, are wholly unnecessary.

This is about the only think that Buzz can hang his hat on right now. It looks so bleak everywhere else he has to take even meh numbers from Florida and blow them out of proportion

You’re not wrong

Buzz, you just need to accept Joe Biden as your lord and savior. Everyone here has a fealty allegiance to Lord Biden.

[Inmate Trump]

 50k day OTW

I appreciate the updates, but the turnout guesses, especially without VBM context, are wholly unnecessary.

This is about the only think that Buzz can hang his hat on right now. It looks so bleak everywhere else he has to take even meh numbers from Florida and blow them out of proportion

You’re not wrong

Buzz, you just need to accept Joe Biden as your lord and savior. Everyone here has a fealty allegiance to Lord Biden.

Join us!

[GeorgiaModerate]

It really is amazing, the confidence that some people have in talking about things they don't understand.

I had a professor with a great way of saying this: "People who think they know everything are particularly annoying to those of us who really do."

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I'm in the early voting line right now. It's very long.

[wbrocks67]

Massive PA update:

Dems 1,193,887 (69.7%)
Reps 355,317 (20.8%)
Other 162,813 (9.5%)

Democrats have returned 63% of their ballots. Reps only 47%. Dems lead on Friday was +730K. It is now +839K.

1.712 million have now voted. 28% of 2016's total already. Imagine if Pennsylvania had *real* early voting and not just our funky "in person mail in ballot voting"

[EJ24]

Massive PA update:

Dems 1,193,887 (69.7%)
Reps 355,317 (20.8%)
Other 162,813 (9.5%)

Democrats have returned 63% of their ballots. Reps only 47%. Dems lead on Friday was +730K. It is now +839K.

PA, AZ, and TX all looking really impressive for Biden.

[Not Me, Us]

Massive PA update:

Dems 1,193,887 (69.7%)
Reps 355,317 (20.8%)
Other 162,813 (9.5%)

Democrats have returned 63% of their ballots. Reps only 47%. Dems lead on Friday was +730K. It is now +839K.

1.712 million have now voted. 28% of 2016's total already. Imagine if Pennsylvania had *real* early voting and not just our funky "in person mail in ballot voting"

It's going to be really difficult for Rs to make up this deficit. I'm feeling really good about PA.

[mijan]

Iowa  early  voting stats  have been updated .
Dems wins early voting in weekend .
Dems are leading by 138.7 k votes.

IA 1
D 101675
R 55068
NP 37683
O 748
T 195174
D+ 46607

IA 2
D 102253
R 54895
NP 36461
O 701
T 194310
D+ 47358

IA 3
D 104354
R 58752
NP 34543
O 892
T 198541
D + 45602

IA 4
D 67124
R 68025
NP 27660
O 552
T 163361
R+ 901

Iowa State
D 375406
R 236740
NP 136347
O 2893
T 751386
D + 138666

2012 Early  voting D 288k- R220k, D+68k
2016 Early  voting D 267k-R 225k, D+42k

Historic early voting by Iowa Dems .

915711 Iowans  requested for early voting.
D leading R in that regards by 442k to 290k.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Massive PA update:

Dems 1,193,887 (69.7%)
Reps 355,317 (20.8%)
Other 162,813 (9.5%)

Democrats have returned 63% of their ballots. Reps only 47%. Dems lead on Friday was +730K. It is now +839K.

PA, AZ, and TX all looking really impressive for Biden.

We need to fire up a "PADems to +1,000,000" meme in the same vein as the "FLDems to +600,000" meme from a few weeks ago.

[ExSky]

Massive PA update:

Dems 1,193,887 (69.7%)
Reps 355,317 (20.8%)
Other 162,813 (9.5%)

Democrats have returned 63% of their ballots. Reps only 47%. Dems lead on Friday was +730K. It is now +839K.

PA, AZ, and TX all looking really impressive for Biden.

We need to fire up a "PADems to +1,000,000" meme in the same vein as the "FLDems to +600,000" meme from a few weeks ago.

Funny how the blue avatars are completely ignoring this while pretending that the numbers in Florida are somehow bad for Joe. This is absolutely disastrous for Trump.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Still a lot of ballots out but Dems have a healthy lead in the CA-08 open seat, a district that was a Republican lockout in 2018 despite having a lower PVI than CA-50. I don't believe it's on any of the pundit radars at all.

[mijan]

Massive PA update:

Dems 1,193,887 (69.7%)
Reps 355,317 (20.8%)
Other 162,813 (9.5%)

Democrats have returned 63% of their ballots. Reps only 47%. Dems lead on Friday was +730K. It is now +839K.

PA, AZ, and TX all looking really impressive for Biden.

We need to fire up a "PADems to +1,000,000" meme in the same vein as the "FLDems to +600,000" meme from a few weeks ago.

I think D will take 1 million early vote lead in PA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MaxMMarin/status/1320774557469462530

Click to see the whole thread, which includes more details, photos, and videos.  Very interesting!

[n1240]

Think this happened a few hours ago but NC has passed their 2016 early vote total (currently at 3.26 million, was 3.19 million in 2016). At current pace I think they'll reach 90% of 2016 total turnout by the end of the early voting period.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dem turnout in Florida now up to 49%

They are clearly on track to exceed their 2016 turnout.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1320797788238696448?s=21 so people will quit complaining about me not posting VBM

[ExSky]

So the 600k VBM Target has been hit. What’s the talking point now?

[kph14]

https://twitter.com/MaxMMarin/status/1320774557469462530

Click to see the whole thread, which includes more details, photos, and videos.  Very interesting!

They clear don't have enough extractors. They'll need at least 30 hours for the expected number of ballots, which of course wouldn't be an issue if they had just one day more.

[EJ24]

So the 600k VBM Target has been hit. What’s the talking point now?

They just won't post that. They will cherrypick the in person vote lead as if that's the only metric.

[Storr]

So the 600k VBM Target has been hit. What’s the talking point now?

Something along the lines of: "The early vote doesn't matter. Shy Trump voters will turnout in droves on election day!"

[Non Swing Voter]

Looks like slightly more ballots added in Florida since Buzz's recent post.

Democratic turnout now at 49.5%!

D overall turnout edge = 322,714

[SLA8]

I think the talking point is that the Rs are cutting into the Dems' lead, but I mean that is to be expected with the sheer number of people turning out.

[EJ24]

https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1320797788238696448?s=21 so people will quit complaining about me not posting VBM

Just playing with these numbers a little bit, I decided to be a little generous to Trump and give him 7.3% of registered Dems and only give Biden 4.2% of registered Republicans.

That shakes out to
Dems to Trump 191,543
GOP to Biden 96,805

Which gives you a total of

Biden 2,432,334
Trump 2,208,092

And this is without factoring in NPA's.

[Storr]

Harris update.
https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1320782238238314498?s=20