2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

No Miami or Broward.

Are Miami and Broward Dem leaning or GOP leaning?

Dear God man, you are an American in the next state over who has been here for years and has thousands of posts, how do you not know this?

Everybody’s so nice and warm here!

It’s a legit question, I am just shocked, they are dem leaning anyways

Admittedly if you only read what's written about South Florida Cubans (especially on this forum) it's not hard to imagine being unsure of the counties' political leanings

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

5K in under 3 hours in Travis today. They need about 7k to get to 50% turnout today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/matthewjdowd/status/1320426372028895237

[Ljube]

I think it is more likely that CBS polls are wrong.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think it is more likely that CBS polls are wrong.

NYT/Siena has seen similar discrepancies (see Nate Cohn's Twitter feed for details).

[Ljube]

I think it is more likely that CBS polls are wrong.

NYT/Siena has seen similar discrepancies (see Nate Cohn's Twitter feed for details).

More evidence to doubt the accuracy of polls.

[Ljube]

It just is not possible that a breakdown of 40D, 30R, 30 other gives results of 61 Biden, 36 trump, 2 third party.

[EJ24]

It just is not possible that a breakdown of 40D, 30R, 30 other gives results of 61 Biden, 36 trump, 2 third party.

Prove it.

Because that seems completely plausible based on what we've seen from polling independents.

[Ljube]

It just is not possible that a breakdown of 40D, 30R, 30 other gives results of 61 Biden, 36 trump, 2 third party.

Prove it.

Because that seems completely plausible based on what we've seen from polling independents.

If you think there is anything I need to prove in my statement, then you will be very surprised on election night.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Williamson County, TX at around 3000 in-person votes so far. That puts them at 100% of 2016 and 98% of 2018

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320456864296013830?s=21

[EJ24]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320428209125629953

[GeorgiaModerate]

It just is not possible that a breakdown of 40D, 30R, 30 other gives results of 61 Biden, 36 trump, 2 third party.

You're overlooking the fact that an R registration does not automatically mean a vote for Trump.  Neither does a D registration automatically mean one for Biden, of course; but I think it's a safe bet that R-voters-for-Biden will be a much larger group than D-voters-for-Trump.

[Ljube]

It just is not possible that a breakdown of 40D, 30R, 30 other gives results of 61 Biden, 36 trump, 2 third party.

You're overlooking the fact that an R registration does not automatically mean a vote for Trump.  Neither does a D registration automatically mean one for Biden, of course; but I think it's a safe bet that R-voters-for-Biden will be a much larger group than D-voters-for-Trump.

I'm not overlooking anything. Give me the math that can translate the actual voting data into CBS poll results.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/simonwdc/status/1320448114935910406?s=21

[Holmes]

How does Target Smart have youth vote down 42% compared to the 2016 early vote in PA when the early vote in that state in 2016 was predominantly old?

Make it make sense

[Gass3268]

How does Target Smart have youth vote down 42% compared to the 2016 early vote in PA when the early vote in that state in 2016 was predominantly old?

Make it make sense

That looks like a typo in the tweet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It just is not possible that a breakdown of 40D, 30R, 30 other gives results of 61 Biden, 36 trump, 2 third party.

You're overlooking the fact that an R registration does not automatically mean a vote for Trump.  Neither does a D registration automatically mean one for Biden, of course; but I think it's a safe bet that R-voters-for-Biden will be a much larger group than D-voters-for-Trump.

I'm not overlooking anything. Give me the math that can translate the actual voting data into CBS poll results.

This is just off the top of my head (I'm not going to search through the NYT crosstabs), but a plausible breakdown is:

40% D who vote 95% for Biden, 5% for Trump
30% R who vote 90% for Trump, 10% for Biden
30% other who vote 65% for Biden, 25% for Trump, 10% for a third party

The above breakdowns are consistent with numerous polls, and get you very close to a 61-36-2 Biden result.

EDIT: Fixed a couple of swapped numbers.

[Stockdale for Veep]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320428209125629953

[forsythvoter]

Yougov has the FL early vote breakdown as follows:

FL:
 Dem:Biden 99-1
 Rep:Trump 87-12
 Ind:Biden 56-40

It just is not possible that a breakdown of 40D, 30R, 30 other gives results of 61 Biden, 36 trump, 2 third party.

You're overlooking the fact that an R registration does not automatically mean a vote for Trump.  Neither does a D registration automatically mean one for Biden, of course; but I think it's a safe bet that R-voters-for-Biden will be a much larger group than D-voters-for-Trump.

I'm not overlooking anything. Give me the math that can translate the actual voting data into CBS poll results.

This is just off the top of my head (I'm not going to search through the NYT crosstabs), but a plausible breakdown is:

40% D who vote 95% for Biden, 5% for Trump
30% R who vote 90% for Trump, 10% for Biden
30% other who vote 65% for Biden, 25% for Trump, 10% for a third party

The above breakdowns are consistent with numerous polls, and get you very close to a 61-36-2 Biden result.

EDIT: Fixed a couple of swapped numbers.

[philly09]

Team Trump is using the YouGov numbers

https://twitter.com/KFaulders/status/1320460933911748610

https://twitter.com/kallijo68/status/1320463215306940416

[Ljube]

Yougov has the FL early vote breakdown as follows:

FL:
 Dem:Biden 99-1
 Rep:Trump 87-12
 Ind:Biden 56-40


That's not possible.
Plus, they have 45% of people already voted and we know that's not true.

You know what this looks like to me? As evidence of a huge non-response bias effect.

[Brittain33]

Why is it not possible?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why is it not possible?

Yes, please explain why it's not possible (preferably with something more substantive than "I don't believe it.")

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yougov has the FL early vote breakdown as follows:

FL:
 Dem:Biden 99-1
 Rep:Trump 87-12
 Ind:Biden 56-40


That's not possible.
Plus, they have 45% of people already voted and we know that's not true.

You know what this looks like to me? As evidence of a huge non-response bias effect.
I don’t like numbers that don’t reinforce my biases so I’ll call them fake

FIFY