2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

No Miami or Broward.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

@Monstro, when pulling the EV numbers,  I’d recommend verifying (unless you already are) the state count with each county. Webb’s ElPaso’s and Harris are undercounted on the state’s website by several thousand each.

I noticed. Really annoying and its why I'm not tracking statewide turnout.

Some counties I pull from the state count (Collin, Bexar mail, Williamson mail) but everything else is straight from the county sites

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

No Miami or Broward.

Or Palm Beach

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Turnout Tracker

After this morning's data from the Florida DOE we can see further advancement (albeit a little slower for Ds) toward the 2016 EV Total

Dem  46.0% (+2.8 )
Rep   40.2% (+3.5)
NPA   29.8% (+2.4)

As I have said, no need to even look at the R number (unless they were blowing Ds out), they will get their 80-81% in the end.  Just need to make sure Ds match it this year.  Currently with roughly 3% gains a day they will achieve this statewide sometime Tuesday, a full week ahead of the election...  Hot Take: Put down the Xanax.




In terms of Counties, 12 of 68 counties have already achieved last years EV Turnout including suburb type Pasco and Sarasota Counties.  Look for large Palm Beach and bellwether Pinellas to hit them today.  Yes, there is work to be done in Miami-Dade, Broward and Orange....but plenty of time....and already better than where they were at this time in 2016.

1) Again. Great job with this, really useful information.  Thank you!

2) Do you have a target for what Democrats should be aiming for by the end of early voting in terms of turnout?  I am thinking somewhere in the range of 65-70% turnout by the end of early voting would be great.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

So Dems are going to get a 600k mail in ballot lead after all, lol

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm gonna begin the Texas update with a disclaimer that this was the final day of early voting for 2012/2016/2018. Not only are we comparing a low-turnout Saturday to a high-turnout Friday, those years also had a big voting surge on those final days. Don't be surprised by big diversions in turnout comparisons, especially as early voting this year is extended another week to October 30.

From here on out, I think I'll just post this years numbers and how they compare percentage-wise to 2012/2016/2018 turnout.

Without further ado...


Day 12 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 24)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:    766,526     38.3%
2016:    977,279     43.7%  (82.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    855,711     36.6%
2020: 1,063,627     42.9%  (81.1% of 2016 turnout)

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:    443,907     37.7%
2016:    549,643     42.7%  (77.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    529,727     39.7%
2020:    586,814     42.0%  (77.3% of 2016 turnout)

TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    418,878     43.0%
2016:    515,230     47.8%  (84.3% of 2012 turnout)  
2018:    465,817     41.5%
2020:    521,223     43.0%  (78.0% of 2016 turnout)

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:    370,653     40.4%
2016:    471,908     45.1%  (91.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    414,192     37.7%
2020:    495,864     41.7%  (84.1% of 2016 turnout)

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:    236,743     37.4%
2016:    377,685     52.1%  (97.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    368,048     47.4%
2020:    415,915     48.6%  (88.7% of 2016 turnout)

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    222,015     48.4%
2016:    301,939     56.2%  (99.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    286,393     49.4%
2020:    348,364     53.7%  (96.4% of 2016 turnout)

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    169,899     43.9%
2016:    239,954     51.6%  (98.8% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    228,650     46.0%
2020:    294,024     52.0%  (98.5% of 2016 turnout)

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:      96,189     25.1%
2016:    150,446     35.1%  (87.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    139,105     30.5%
2020:    164,595     33.7%  (76.9% of 2016 turnout)

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    162,955     48.0%
2016:    213,567     52.9%  (97.3% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    199,267     46.1%
2020:    240,170     49.8%  (91.6% of 2016 turnout)

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    103,270     33.9%
2016:    139,833     41.3%  (100.5% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    114,560     31.7%
2020:    137,955     35.3%   (79.5% of 2016 turnout)

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:    105,508     41.6%
2016:    162,558     54.2%  (99.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    162,574     48.8%
2020:    200,699     53.3%  (98.8% of 2016 turnout)

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    122,363     46.2%
2016:    156,818     50.3%  (90.6% of 2012 turnout)
2018:    138,125     41.4%
2020:    172,195     46.5%  (84.2% of 2016 turnout)

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:      84,170     45.4%
2016:    101,488     48.7%  (92.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:      90,166     42.4%
2020:    108,982     47.7%  (88.7% of 2016 turnout)

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:      43,579     24.2%
2016:      64,239     32.5%  (83.5% of 2012 turnout)
2018:      54,576     26.4%
2020:      71,397     32.6%  (77.5% of 2016 turnout)

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:      60,842     31.7%
2016:      74,844     37.5%  (77.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:      67,630     33.0%
2020:      85,267     40.3%  (81.7% of 2016 turnout)

HAYS COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2018:      62,583     46.6%
2020:      73,277     47.9%  (101.5% of 2016 turnout)

[Landslide Lyndon]

My thoughts exactly.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1320416777281720324

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

After this morning's data from the Florida DOE we can see further advancement (albeit a little slower for Ds) toward the 2016 EV Total

Dem  46.0% (+2.8 )
Rep   40.2% (+3.5)
NPA   29.8% (+2.4)

As I have said, no need to even look at the R number (unless they were blowing Ds out), they will get their 80-81% in the end.  Just need to make sure Ds match it this year.  Currently with roughly 3% gains a day they will achieve this statewide sometime Tuesday, a full week ahead of the election...  Hot Take: Put down the Xanax.




In terms of Counties, 12 of 68 counties have already achieved last years EV Turnout including suburb type Pasco and Sarasota Counties.  Look for large Palm Beach and bellwether Pinellas to hit them today.  Yes, there is work to be done in Miami-Dade, Broward and Orange....but plenty of time....and already better than where they were at this time in 2016.

1) Again. Great job with this, really useful information.  Thank you!

2) Do you have a target for what Democrats should be aiming for by the end of early voting in terms of turnout?  I am thinking somewhere in the range of 65-70% turnout by the end of early voting would be great.

I don’t have a target but those numbers would be amazing given total turnout was 74.4%

Calling all data hounds.  One thing I do not have is 2016 total Florida Turnout by party by county.  Can’t find it anywhere. I know Dems were at 74.4% total, but don’t know what it was specifically for Miami Dade (of course I know total votes but not by party voter).  If anyone has access to this it would help me provide greater insight as we pass the 2016 county level EV Dem turnout over the next few days.   Would help us focus on the next goal

[emailking]

Yeah he should have embraced VBM and encouraged his supporters to vote that way. I don't think he has much of a chance anyway, but he'd have a better chance if he'd done that. He should have used his deficit in the polls to motivate his supporters instead of claiming he's winning and trying to set up a pretext to challenge the results.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

So Dems are going to get a 600k mail in ballot lead after all, lol

Was the talking point that Dems needed a 600k lead in mail in ballots or a 600k lead in all of early voting, in-person and mail combined?

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

So Dems are going to get a 600k mail in ballot lead after all, lol

Was the talking point that Dems needed a 600k lead in mail in ballots or a 600k lead in all of early voting, in-person and mail combined?

Yes, the talking point moved so many times who knows what it was originally.  Please move to the Flabuckeye model for anything useful.

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/jerrysaltz/status/1320326810488442880

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

So Dems are going to get a 600k mail in ballot lead after all, lol

Was the talking point that Dems needed a 600k lead in mail in ballots or a 600k lead in all of early voting, in-person and mail combined?

Yes, the talking point moved so many times who knows what it was originally.  Please move to the Flabuckeye model for anything useful.

Yeah not even sure what the 600k was exactly, was mostly just joking.  We should just monitor Flabuckeye's model from now on.

[Non Swing Voter]

BTW - anyone know what's going on in Pennsylvania?  They seem to be lagging big time with reporting.  The real numbers have to be much much higher than what's currently being posted.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

BTW - anyone know what's going on in Pennsylvania?  They seem to be lagging big time with reporting.  The real numbers have to be much much higher than what's currently being posted.

It's our first time doing this, and we weren't exactly expecting a pandemic when the law was signed. I would not be surprised at all by slow reporting.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

No Miami or Broward.

Or Palm Beach

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pal

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=bro

These update more frequently. It's individual reporting software from the counties, not all counties use this system though. You just have to change the county abbreviation letters.

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

No Miami or Broward.

Are Miami and Broward Dem leaning or GOP leaning?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

No Miami or Broward.

Have you ever looked at an election map?


Are Miami and Broward Dem leaning or GOP leaning?

[Gass3268]

I don’t trust Target Smart’s partisan information in states without voter registration, which I imagine this includes some of, but this is encouraging and based on the voter roll:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320431044240252929?s=21  

[Crumpets]

My thoughts exactly.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1320416777281720324

For once Republicans will be able to experience the feeling of "omg there's a flash flood in XYZ important place! The election shouldn't be decided by random acts of nature like this!" And maybe we'll be able to get some decent bipartisan election reforms through as a result.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

No Miami or Broward.

Are Miami and Broward Dem leaning or GOP leaning?

They're both strongly democrat. Hillary won Miami-Dade by 30% in 2016, and Broward by 35%.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems at 47.1% turnout in Florida at the moment.  Hopefully this gets to 50% by tomorrow.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

No Miami or Broward.

Are Miami and Broward Dem leaning or GOP leaning?

Dear God man, you are an American in the next state over who has been here on this forum for years and has thousands of posts, how do you not know this?

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

No Miami or Broward.

Are Miami and Broward Dem leaning or GOP leaning?

Dear God man, you are an American in the next state over who has been here for years and has thousands of posts, how do you not know this?

Everybody’s so nice and warm here!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

No Miami or Broward.

Are Miami and Broward Dem leaning or GOP leaning?

Dear God man, you are an American in the next state over who has been here for years and has thousands of posts, how do you not know this?

Everybody’s so nice and warm here!

It’s a legit question, I am just shocked, they are dem leaning anyways