2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Dr. Arch]

Also, for those freaking out at FL Dem vs. GOP turnout, these are the numbers by day:

Net change (Dem minus GOP vote)

31,984
20,306
5,646
24,267
52,872
40,223
37,575
32,787
23,472
3,925
12,929
22,575
19,486
20,123
18,763
11,164
2,807
2,780
5,729
-18,094
-34,912
-37,049
-23,278

The last 4 days GOP voters have cut into the DEM lead but it's not like they're posting a huge advantage each day.

Didn't Republicans win the early vote totals last time anyways?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also, for those freaking out at FL Dem vs. GOP turnout, these are the numbers by day:

Net change (Dem minus GOP vote)

31,984
20,306
5,646
24,267
52,872
40,223
37,575
32,787
23,472
3,925
12,929
22,575
19,486
20,123
18,763
11,164
2,807
2,780
5,729
-18,094
-34,912
-37,049
-23,278

The last 4 days GOP voters have cut into the DEM lead but it's not like they're posting a huge advantage each day.

Didn't Republicans win the early vote totals last time anyways?

I think so, historically the GOP tends to do well in the FL early vote.

[KaiserDave]

What's the situation in PA like?

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Final Saturday Update:, 156,598 votes were cast on Saturday.

This includes 126,689 in-person votes and 29,909 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,754,798 in-person & 946,753 by mail, for a grand total of 2,701,551 (64.86% of 2016 total vote).

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1320167190386122754?s=21

NYC in the House!!!

100k + on Day One from the City alone...

Maybe it's because of Harris County, TX but I'm not really impressed with NY's numbers given its population.

NY has been mail voting as well, but they are not telling us anything as fall as how many have already mailed ballots. Considering the GOP is using early-in-person more and the dems are utilizing mail ballots, there are likely a bunch of ballots in bureaucratic purgatory right now, invisible until next week.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1320167190386122754?s=21

NYC in the House!!!

100k + on Day One from the City alone...

Maybe it's because of Harris County, TX but I'm not really impressed with NY's numbers given its population.

NY has been mail voting as well, but they are not telling us anything as fall as how many have already mailed ballots. Considering the GOP is using early-in-person more and the dems are utilizing mail ballots, there are likely a bunch of ballots in bureaucratic purgatory right now, invisible until next week.

NY and NJ are such undemocratic machine states. It is a shame it took until the pandemic that they were willing to start absentee and early voting. Georgia of all places, has had for a long time absentee, early voting and online voter registration.

[Brittain33]

Not encouraging
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320166639523057665
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320168019159646209

I think this guy may be a moron, though.

Democrats have voted in huge numbers and now Republicans are starting to vote in large numbers. There's nothing to cause Dems to panic in that. Maybe they win, maybe they don't.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, for those freaking out at FL Dem vs. GOP turnout, these are the numbers by day:

Net change (Dem minus GOP vote)

31,984
20,306
5,646
24,267
52,872
40,223
37,575
32,787
23,472
3,925
12,929
22,575
19,486
20,123
18,763
11,164
2,807
2,780
5,729
-18,094
-34,912
-37,049
-23,278

The last 4 days GOP voters have cut into the DEM lead but it's not like they're posting a huge advantage each day.

Didn't Republicans win the early vote totals last time anyways?

I think so, historically the GOP tends to do well in the FL early vote.

I thought Hillary won the early vote in 2016 (and partisan makeup as well).  But not by a huge margin, whereas Trump won the day of vote by like 250,000.

That said, with the sheer volume of early votes up so much now, I don't think Trump can feel safe if he's "only" down a couple of hundred thousand early votes.  It seems doubtful that he's going to net 250,000 votes on Election Day if so many people vote beforehand.  Possibly but less likely.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Why's everyone keep posting simple-minded "Democrats are doomed" takes from this Dave guy who has <1000 followers and doesn't offer much evidence for his takes?

[Non Swing Voter]

Why's everyone keep posting simple-minded "Democrats are doomed" takes from this Dave guy who has <1000 followers and doesn't offer much evidence for his takes?

He must be a poster...

[EJ24]

For the final time:

NPA's in Florida skew younger, more diverse, and a lot of them are self-identified independents.

They are thought to be breaking for Biden.

The fact that they are voting by mail by a 2-1 margin indicates they *probably* lean Biden.

Youth turnout is already much higher than 2016, so if anybody in Florida should be dooming, it's the GOP for this reason alone.

[wbrocks67]

Wouldn’t look too deep into the campaign stops.  Trump was in Nevada this week and is going to New Hampshire tomorrow.  Neither are going his way.

Huh? Why would you compare Trumps stops and Biden stops? One campaign knows what they're doing and one doesn't, so why even bother comparing?

[NOVA Green]

Not encouraging
(Florida tweets)

lol right on schedule

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

The guy has been on top of this Florida stuff as good as anyone so if he is saying it’s panic time then it’s not a good sign

All I'm saying that we're right on schedule for our daily Florida freakout.

It's almost not funny at this point. Almost

Everyone just needs to take a bong-rip (Virtually and theoretically as a metaphor) and not freak out like that old "Freak Brothers" alternative comics from the Underground Press of the late '60s / early '70s, which I was a bit too young to read back in the dayz, but actually the original comics run for high dollars on eBay these days.

Still, it appears that the Freak Brothers are back and the 1st episode prominently features President Donald J. Trump.

[wbrocks67]

Not encouraging
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320166639523057665
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320168019159646209

LOL, so a 20K lead for Reps for the day? So Dems lead goes from like 380 to 360? If Reps gained 20K every day for the next week, they still wouldn't be leading.

It's truly amazing to me that FL has nearly 6 million votes cast already, and Dems are leading by 7% (43-36%) with UAs leaning Biden. How is that bad for Biden at all?!

[wbrocks67]

What's the situation in PA like?

Nothing today (I don't think they update on the weekends), but Dems are dominating the vote so far. It's literally like 71% Dem/20% Rep.

Dems have a 55% return rate now, while Reps only 40%. I don't know if Reps are just choosing to forego the ballots they requested and vote in person or they're just not motivated, but if this continues, it's gonna take a lot for Reps to come back on Election Day.

[Hammy]

So given the massive early vote numbers, what's the likelihood of Florida, North Carolina, and Texas getting called pretty shortly after polls close?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Why's everyone keep posting simple-minded "Democrats are doomed" takes from this Dave guy who has <1000 followers and doesn't offer much evidence for his takes?

He must be a poster...

He's getting posted in PredictIt comments as well, I'm thinking the doomers in this thread are going there to find material.

[rhg2052]

https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1320167190386122754

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

[roxas11]

If you had told me years ago that dems would be getting worried about an election with this kind of crazy turnout I would have called you nuts yet here we are

Look I am not concerned about the early voting numbers at all
People are actually showing up to vote and If anthing I hope even more people come out

I don't care who if these people are coming from both republican and democrat areas because by the end of the day we all know that the last thing the GOP wants is an election where everyone is actually showing up to to make their voices heard.

make no mistake if Democrats, republicans, and independents are all voting in record numbers
Trump is doomed and Biden is winning this election....

[Gass3268]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

And?

[BudgieForce]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

Does he mean a 4% swing?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

And?

And it’s not a good sign that unless Dems right this ship they’ll have a smaller EV % gap then they did in 2016

[NOVA Green]

Why's everyone keep posting simple-minded "Democrats are doomed" takes from this Dave guy who has <1000 followers and doesn't offer much evidence for his takes?

He must be a poster...

He's getting posted in PredictIt comments as well, I'm thinking the doomers in this thread are going there to find material.

So Atlas poster attempting to manipulate Social Media in order to influence online betting markets?

Whoever you are, out yourself before the Atlas Hive discovers who your real identity is.

Many of us post our election analysis, without any "investment" in the game, and anybody attempting to profit or exploit this site for their own short term monetary gain, is simply scum, and hopefully they lose a small fortune on election day, whoever you are.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

And?

And it’s not a good sign that unless Dems right this ship they’ll have a smaller EV % gap then they did in 2016

Are you just gonna ignore the 20.7% of NPA voters that don't seem to be breaking to Trump this year?

It really looks like you're worrying for worry's sake