How much does Biden need to win the EC for you to be confident he will be inaugurated in 2021?

[MATTROSE94]

Joe Biden might even need to win the 413 Authoritarian NUT map to avoid a Supreme Court tbh.

[emailking]

Biden needs 270 EVs, PERIOD. Suggesting he needs more is called 'moving the goalposts'. If Biden hits 270, and gets no further, it won't matter. Trump is leaving office.

Anything under 275-280 (regardless of the winner) leaves too much room for faithless electors to mess with the count, and that's something I've always been uneasy with--and there were 7 in 2016.

I wouldn't worry so much. 5 of those came Washington and Hawaii which voted late in the day. If Biden gets 275 then maybe you see some in Hawaii again because they'll know for sure it can't affect the result at that point. If he gets 270 or 271 then yeah I'd be worried because somebody could just go rogue.

[Hammy]

Biden needs 270 EVs, PERIOD. Suggesting he needs more is called 'moving the goalposts'. If Biden hits 270, and gets no further, it won't matter. Trump is leaving office.

Anything under 275-280 (regardless of the winner) leaves too much room for faithless electors to mess with the count, and that's something I've always been uneasy with--and there were 7 in 2016.

I wouldn't worry so much. 5 of those came Washington and Hawaii which voted late in the day. If Biden gets 275 then maybe you see some in Hawaii again because they'll know for sure it can't affect the result at that point. If he gets 270 or 271 then yeah I'd be worried because somebody could just go rogue.

I was meaning more in general, not simply pertaining to this particular election. But obviously it would be more worrying this time given what's at stake.

[GoTfan]

There are 5 Republican partisans on the Court. To suggest they won't try to use some sort of chicanery against Biden is ludicrous.

[BlueSwan]

If Trump somehow wins FL, NC and AZ on election night, then we are bound for true hell. They will do whatever they can to sabotage the counting in MI/PA/WI and I think there’s a good chance they will be succesful in one of those states (probably PA).

If Biden wins FL on election night, then I’d feel pretty good.

[S019ian Liberal]

270 Electoral Votes, lol.

Biden needs 270 EVs, PERIOD. Suggesting he needs more is called 'moving the goalposts'. If Biden hits 270, and gets no further, it won't matter. Trump is leaving office.

Anything under 275-280 (regardless of the winner) leaves too much room for faithless electors to mess with the count, and that's something I've always been uneasy with--and there were 7 in 2016.

*plus 3 who attempted to defect

But on a more relevant note, there won't be any faithless electors this year around. It's boutta be 2012 all over again, baby

[MillennialModerate]

More than one state.

This was my thought

If the margin is decisive in more than one state

[morgieb]

If he has 270 EV's+ locked in by next Wednesday, he wins. Anything under that and it's panic time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump only has 125 EC votes guaranteed

[MillennialModerate]

Trump only has 125 EC votes guaranteed

141 (Georgia)

[YE]

Trump only has 125 EC votes guaranteed

141 (Georgia)

Just because you stubbornly shout from the mountain tops that Georgia, despite the rapidly trending Atlanta area, is in the bag for Trump doesn’t make it true.

[Hammy]

Trump only has 125 EC votes guaranteed

141 (Georgia)

"Guarantee" = zero chance of flipping. Georgia's chances are 30-40%.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Trump only has 125 EC votes guaranteed

124 (NE-02 is lean Biden)

[Ferguson97]

Trump only has 125 EC votes guaranteed

124 (NE-02 is lean Biden)

125 includes NE-02 as a tossup.

[Sirius_]

I'd say 290, the freiwall+AZ+ME-02 or NE-02 is the minimum to be 100% sure. The SC could flip any 1 of the rust belt states or AZand Biden still wins, I find it hard to believe they could really flip more than 1. I still have a hard time believing that 5 justices would really make a decision that hands Trump the election in this environment, but it also isn't impossible either.

[Turbo Flame]

At least 300EVs. If Biden wins and it's below that, then Trump will challenge the results.

[Progressive Pessimist]

For me it isn't as much a matter of the electoral vote number as it is how much he wins the states that put him over 270 by. If we have the closeness of Florida from 2000 in any of them it's going to be a disaster. If Biden wins them fairly comfortably, where he isn't just the "apparent winner" then I think he'll be in good shape. For all the fear of the Supreme Court overturning the election, I reserve having apprehensions of that possibility, admittedly, but I only think that it's really likely if we get a Bush v. Gore situation.

All that said, I would appreciate if Biden could win by more than Trump's 306 electoral votes so that Trump and his boot lickers can't say: "I still won more electoral votes in 2016! It was a record not seen since Reagan!"

[S019ian Liberal]

Trump and his boot lickers can't say: "I still won more electoral votes in 2016! It was a record not seen since Reagan!"

Who cares (about the 306)? Nobody, certainly not me.

[Mr. Morden]

The margin of victory has nothing to do with it.  The main reason he might not be inaugurated despite winning is that it's always possible that he'll either drop dead or become sick enough that he preemptively resigns.