Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +5 in PA, +9 in WI
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  Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +5 in PA, +9 in WI		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +5 in PA, +9 in WI  (Read 2500 times)
VAR
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« on: October 26, 2020, 03:02:44 PM »
Oct. 20-26

WI:
Biden 53% (+2)
Trump 44% (+1)

PA:
Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 45% (n/c)

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-election-battlegrounds-poll/biden-has-solid-lead-in-wisconsin-narrower-edge-in-pennsylvania-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUKKBN27B2FO
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exopolitician
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2020, 03:04:31 PM »
I'll take it.
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Rand
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2020, 03:05:51 PM »
Joe Biden is the oil can the Rust Belt needs and wants.

278 Firewall secure.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2020, 03:06:00 PM »
Sweet
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2020, 03:07:06 PM »
Biden’s PA polls feel a lot like Obama’s 2012’s.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2020, 03:07:48 PM »
Reasonable enough, into the average.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2020, 03:08:04 PM »
Mah Insider Advantage poll though.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2020, 03:08:56 PM »
The “Kamala Harris laughing in Norah O’Donnell’s face for asking if she’s a socialist” bump 👀
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EJ24
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2020, 03:09:04 PM »
Feel great about the rust belt. Biden over 50.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2020, 03:11:35 PM »
Some pollsters are really going to have a bit of egg on their faces in PA this year.
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redjohn
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2020, 03:12:39 PM »
WI is not really competitive at this point. Trump should just focus his energy in PA+FL+AZ; not sure why he was in NH+ME yesterday, two states that won't end up close at all.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2020, 03:15:14 PM »
Quote from: Beida on October 26, 2020, 03:12:39 PM
WI is not really competitive at this point. Trump should just focus his energy in PA+FL+AZ; not sure why he was in NH+ME yesterday, two states that won't end up close at all.

His campaign is in disarray, he is also apparently going to Omaha sometime this week. Running around like a chicken with its head cut off.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2020, 03:16:31 PM »
Quote from: Exopolitician on October 26, 2020, 03:15:14 PM
Quote from: Beida on October 26, 2020, 03:12:39 PM
WI is not really competitive at this point. Trump should just focus his energy in PA+FL+AZ; not sure why he was in NH+ME yesterday, two states that won't end up close at all.

His campaign is in disarray, he is also apparently going to Omaha sometime this week. Running around like a chicken with its head cut off.

It's probably too late for him in Omaha but the lack of polling means we can be a little less certain about that than in MI/MN/WI. In terms of the heaviest plausible lifts, he'll need either NE-02 or AZ in addition to PA.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2020, 03:24:31 PM »
Quote from: Beida on October 26, 2020, 03:12:39 PM
WI is not really competitive at this point. Trump should just focus his energy in PA+FL+AZ; not sure why he was in NH+ME yesterday, two states that won't end up close at all.

Let’s wait until Marquette comes out before we make any proclamations. Plus Biden is still coming to Wisconsin on Friday. That said, things look good.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2020, 03:30:04 PM »
October 20-26
Changes with October 13-19

PA
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/topline_reuters_pennsylvania_state_poll_w5_10_26_2020.pdf

655 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 45% (n/c)
Some other candidate 3% (n/c)
Not sure 2% (-2)

Five-way ballot:

Biden 51% (+2)
Trump 44% (-1)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)
Some other candidate 1% (-1)
Hawkins 0% (n/c)
West 0% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)

WI
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/topline_reuters_wisconsin_state_poll_w5_10_26_2020.pdf

664 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Biden 53% (+2)
Trump 44% (+1)
Some other candidate 2% (-1)
Not sure 2% (-1)

Five-way ballot:

Biden 53% (+2)
Trump 44% (-1)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (+1)
Some other candidate 1% (-1)
West 0% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2020, 03:33:38 PM »
Quote from: You Reap What You Sow on October 26, 2020, 03:05:51 PM
Joe Biden is the oil can the Rust Belt needs and wants.

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*Freiwal
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RBH
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2020, 03:37:46 PM »
it seems sorta unusual for Biden to gain a percent going from 2 way to 5 way polls, usually going from 2 way to 5 way gives some softer voters a chance to flee from one of the top 2. This sort of thing has happened a few times in Ipsos polling too.
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Splash
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2020, 03:44:12 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2020, 05:02:45 PM by Splash »
More releases:

CORRECTION: Besides PA/WI, the other polls were already released a couple days ago.


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Roll Roons
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2020, 03:46:00 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2020, 03:51:04 PM by Roll Roons »
Quote from: Splash on October 26, 2020, 03:44:12 PM
More releases:



Genuinely surprised that Wisconsin has the strongest numbers for Biden. I really thought it would be Michigan. Aside from that, these numbers are generally in line with what I expect.
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Hammy
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2020, 03:53:28 PM »
Did they not poll in 2016 or 18? I need some point of reference for these.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2020, 03:55:04 PM »
Is this the oil bump?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2020, 03:56:56 PM »
Quote from: Splash on October 26, 2020, 03:44:12 PM
More releases:



The other ones are from last week, they only release 2 a day.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2020, 03:57:35 PM »

Yes. You have to remember Trump will outperform polling by 5-10% in all these states and therefore they are all titanium tilt R in his column no matter what.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2020, 03:59:58 PM »
Quote from: Splash on October 26, 2020, 03:44:12 PM
More releases:



That's very close to how I expect all of these states to vote in the end.
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ExSky
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2020, 04:12:37 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on October 26, 2020, 03:46:00 PM
Quote from: Splash on October 26, 2020, 03:44:12 PM
More releases:



Genuinely surprised that Wisconsin has the strongest numbers for Biden. I really thought it would be Michigan. Aside from that, these numbers are generally in line with what I expect.

Pretty sure Wisconsinites (?) didn’t take too kindly to being used as a prop for Trump and his police agenda
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