MA-UMass Amherst: Biden +35
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  MA-UMass Amherst: Biden +35
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Author Topic: MA-UMass Amherst: Biden +35  (Read 1490 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 26, 2020, 01:58:40 PM »

64% Biden
29% Trump
  3% Others

https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/GeneralElectionToplines.pdf
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Nathan
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2020, 02:05:10 PM »

Biden will likely reach Obama 2008 levels across New England.
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Rand
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2020, 02:08:21 PM »

Because this is the poll we all want to see.
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Nathan
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2020, 02:12:59 PM »

Because this is the poll we all want to see.

This unironically. SOUTHIE JOE!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2020, 02:14:13 PM »

Biden will likely reach Obama 2008 levels across New England.

I doubt he does quite as well as Obama 2008 in VT and RI, but I guess itís possible. I really donít see him reaching Obama levels in ME, though.
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Nathan
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2020, 02:16:49 PM »

Biden will likely reach Obama 2008 levels across New England.

I doubt he does quite as well as Obama 2008 in VT and RI, but I guess it’s possible. I really don’t see him reaching Obama levels in ME, though.

How much do you want to bet on whether Biden beats Obama 2008's percentage in at least one of the five non-Massachusetts New England states? (It's pretty clear that he will in Massachusetts if the polls are even close to accurate.) I'm not particularly invested in this specific question so let's keep it low-stakes--how about an avatar change for one week?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2020, 02:18:56 PM »

October 14-21
713 likely voters
MoE: 4.5% for 725 registered voters

Not sure 3%
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2020, 02:21:53 PM »

Because this is the poll we all want to see.

UMass-Amherst does, which is all that matters.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2020, 02:22:26 PM »

Biden will likely reach Obama 2008 levels across New England.

I doubt he does quite as well as Obama 2008 in VT and RI, but I guess itís possible. I really donít see him reaching Obama levels in ME, though.

How much do you want to bet that Biden beats Obama 2008's percentage in at least one of the five non-Massachusetts New England states? (It's pretty clear that he will in Massachusetts if the polls are even close to accurate.) I'm not particularly invested in this specific question so let's keep it low-stakes--how about an avatar change for one week?

Now, now, I didnít say Iíd be surprised if Biden got close to/matched Obama in 2008 in CT and NH. Tongue

Iím not invested in it either, so avatar change for one week if Biden does better than Obama 2008 in one of VT/ME/RI (without CT/NH)?
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2020, 02:22:47 PM »

Biden will likely reach Obama 2008 levels across New England.

I doubt he does quite as well as Obama 2008 in VT and RI, but I guess itís possible. I really donít see him reaching Obama levels in ME, though.

How much do you want to bet that Biden beats Obama 2008's percentage in at least one of the five non-Massachusetts New England states? (It's pretty clear that he will in Massachusetts if the polls are even close to accurate.) I'm not particularly invested in this specific question so let's keep it low-stakes--how about an avatar change for one week?

Now, now, I didnít say Iíd be surprised if Biden got close to/matched Obama in 2008 in CT and NH. Tongue

Iím not invested in it either, so avatar change for one week if Biden does better than Obama 2008 in one of VT/ME/RI (without CT/NH)?

Deal.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2020, 02:24:47 PM »


Deal. Please message/remind me after the election because I tend to forget these things, especially when I end up on the losing side. Wink
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RBH
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2020, 02:24:56 PM »

Because this is the poll we all want to see.

Poll Rhode Island, you cowards
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2020, 02:29:48 PM »


This is SurveyMonkey and PureSpectrum erasure.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2020, 02:54:05 PM »

Don't expect much polling error here. This is probably going to be one of the more accurate states, and this poll seems totally within reason.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2020, 04:08:07 PM »

If Biden truly does receive 64% here, he will have garnered the highest percentage of any Democrat in Massachusetts since Lyndon B. Johnson's 76% sweep here in 1964. Not even John Kerry in 2004 or Barack Obama in 2008 managed to reach that figure here.
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2020, 07:03:52 PM »

Not surprised by these numbers given it is MA, but the margin probably means Biden is doing well in the New Hampshire suburbs of Boston as well.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2020, 07:22:28 PM »


Worcester Joe.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2020, 11:57:02 AM »

New Poll: Massachusetts President by UMass Poll on 2020-10-21

Summary: D: 64%, R: 29%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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VAR
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2020, 03:23:05 AM »

Biden will likely reach Obama 2008 levels across New England.

I doubt he does quite as well as Obama 2008 in VT and RI, but I guess itís possible. I really donít see him reaching Obama levels in ME, though.

How much do you want to bet that Biden beats Obama 2008's percentage in at least one of the five non-Massachusetts New England states? (It's pretty clear that he will in Massachusetts if the polls are even close to accurate.) I'm not particularly invested in this specific question so let's keep it low-stakes--how about an avatar change for one week?

Now, now, I didnít say Iíd be surprised if Biden got close to/matched Obama in 2008 in CT and NH. Tongue

Iím not invested in it either, so avatar change for one week if Biden does better than Obama 2008 in one of VT/ME/RI (without CT/NH)?

Deal.

MT Treasurer won. Biden won ME by 10 points (Obama +17), RI by 20 points (Obama +28), and VT by 33 points (Obama +37).
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2020, 04:45:52 AM »

Biden will likely reach Obama 2008 levels across New England.

I doubt he does quite as well as Obama 2008 in VT and RI, but I guess itís possible. I really donít see him reaching Obama levels in ME, though.

How much do you want to bet that Biden beats Obama 2008's percentage in at least one of the five non-Massachusetts New England states? (It's pretty clear that he will in Massachusetts if the polls are even close to accurate.) I'm not particularly invested in this specific question so let's keep it low-stakes--how about an avatar change for one week?

Now, now, I didnít say Iíd be surprised if Biden got close to/matched Obama in 2008 in CT and NH. Tongue

Iím not invested in it either, so avatar change for one week if Biden does better than Obama 2008 in one of VT/ME/RI (without CT/NH)?

Deal.

MT Treasurer won. Biden won ME by 10 points (Obama +17), RI by 20 points (Obama +28), and VT by 33 points (Obama +37).


Yes, but in the context of a much smaller PV victory than most of us expected. I think most of us underestimated just how hard most of New England would snap back this time and am a lot less sure Maine will be one of the Republican party's easier targets next time.
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