NYT/Siena - TX: Trump +4

[Alben Barkley]

Hmm...

Perhaps surprisingly, the Hispanic voters likeliest to stay home are the Hispanic voters likeliest to support Mr. Trump. Or, if you prefer: Mr. Biden fares better among the Latino voters who say they will vote. Mr. Biden leads, 61-30, among Hispanic voters who say they’ve already voted or are “almost certain” to do so, while Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are effectively tied among those who are less likely. Mr. Biden has an even wider lead of 73-20 among Hispanic voters who say they have already voted.

In any case, will certainly be ironic if old white voters in the suburbs are ready to vote D in Texas, but the state fails to flip because of Hispanics. I kinda doubt it will happen, but we'll see.

[Alben Barkley]

Same poll has Cornyn +10. I'm calling BS.

[Alben Barkley]

Cohn should be given the benefit of the doubt here. He did miss in Texas in 2018, but given how intelligent and transparent NYT/Siena has been previously about methodology, I'd have to think they would've tried to resolve their SW polling issue.

Either way, it seems ridiculous to constantly criticize an A+ pollster because you don't like their results. And then turn around and use a 25 LV subsample of Collin County to disprove the rest of their poll.

The number of undecideds is still a big problem, and as for the Hispanic thing, I’ll believe it when I see it. Can I believe they’ve improved their methodology to deal with their problems with these voters and this state in particular? Sure. But we won’t know if they succeeded until next week.